Baltimore Orioles vsBoston Red Sox Prediction
The Boston Red Sox are 10-19 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Baltimore Orioles who are 10-16 on the road this season. The Red Sox have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Red Sox' starter Martin Perez is forecasted to have a better game than Orioles' starter Alex Cobb. Martin Perez has a 44% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Alex Cobb has a 29% chance of a QS. If Martin Perez has a quality start the Red Sox has a 82% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.7 and he has a 22% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 63%. In Alex Cobb quality starts the Orioles win 68%. He has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 68% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Xander Bogaerts who averaged 2.68 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 48% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 70% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Baltimore Orioles is Jose Iglesias who averaged 2.34 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Orioles have a 56% chance of winning.