PGA Model Picks For 2024 Sony Open In Hawaii

How to Bet The 2024 Sony Open In Hawaii

Welcome to the Sony Open in Hawaii, where precision takes precedence over power and strategy reigns supreme. Following the thrilling season opener at Kapalua, the PGA TOUR shifts its focus to Waialae Country Club, setting the stage for a unique challenge that tests players in ways starkly different from the prior week.

Waialae, a par-70 course standing at 7,044 yards, offers a contrasting experience compared to the wide-open fairways of Kapalua. Here, the emphasis is on accuracy off the tee, navigating through tight fairways, and tackling sharp doglegs that demand a strategic approach. The course, a consistent host to this annual PGA Tour event since 1965, brings a distinct flavor to the game, challenging players with its layout and coastal winds that can quickly turn the tides.

In contrast to the massive elevation changes at Kapalua, Waialae sits at just a few yards above sea level, presenting a flat yet nuanced landscape that demands precision in every shot. The Bermuda grass terrain, including the rough, adds an element of unpredictability, forcing players to make astute decisions despite the rough's modest height of around three inches.

With its shorter yardage and fewer par-5s, the focus shifts to the short game and approach shots. The course history underscores the importance of accuracy, especially with short irons. Skills in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting have shown the highest correlation with success here, highlighting the significance of precision in these facets of the game.

Notable past champions like Si Woo Kim, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, and others return to this testing ground, ready to tackle the challenges that Waialae presents. As the field of 144 assembles, BetQL's model is set to identify the top finishing position values, considering the unique demands of this course and the skills required to conquer its intricacies. As the Sony Open unfolds at Waialae Country Club, expect a tactical showcase where accuracy and finesse take center stage, setting the tone for an enthralling week of golf. Below, you’ll see the best finishing position bets from our model.

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

2024 Sony Open In Hawaii Model Picks, Predictions & Sleepers 

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player, and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below come from BetQL’s PGA Model. Star ratings are on a 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

After running our PGA Model, these particular finishing position bets are standing out with the most value on the board. 

Top Finishing Position Model Picks For 2024 Sony Open

Ludvig Aberg To Win (+1600, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +786 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ludvig Aberg emerges as a smart bet for the Sony Open with a compelling track record and a skill set that aligns perfectly with the challenges posed by Waialae Country Club. His recent performance metrics underscore his potential to shine in this event.

Aberg's consistency stands out with an impressive record of 14 cuts made out of 17, including a runner-up finish, a win, and three top-5 finishes. His statistics in crucial areas like Putting Average (28th), Birdie Average (20th), and Proximity (15th) highlight his proficiency in key aspects of the game.

His meteoric rise from the collegiate circuit to the PGA Tour, culminating in a historic performance at the RSM Classic, speaks volumes about his talent. Aberg's ability to set records in low-scoring rounds and dominate aspects such as total driving, birdie average, and scoring on par-4s and par-5s indicates his well-rounded skills on the course.

Despite a mixed showing at The Sentry, where he encountered difficulties, Aberg's ability to bounce back strongly with an impressive 63 (-10) on Sunday amidst challenging conditions at Kapalua speaks volumes about his resilience and adaptability.

Moreover, his familiarity with flat, coastal tracks with large Bermudagrass greens is evident from his stunning victory at The RSM Classic. His recent display of overcoming challenges akin to those presented at Waialae CC reinforces the belief that he has the mettle to contend and succeed.

Considering Waialae's layout, characterized by several par-4s between 400-500 yards, Aberg's proficiency on holes with that yardage further solidifies his candidacy as a formidable contender.

While his odds may have drifted slightly from the initial favorite status, Aberg's ability to adapt, bounce back from setbacks, and thrive in conditions akin to those at Waialae make him a strategic bet worth considering. His combination of skill, resilience, and recent form positions him as a strong candidate to make an impactful mark at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Tyrrell Hatton Top 5 Finish (+450, bet365)

BetQL Projection: +278 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tyrrell Hatton might be a debutant at the Sony Open in Hawaii, but his recent performances and skill set make him a compelling bet to secure a Top-5 finish at Waialae Country Club.

Despite being a newcomer to this event, Hatton arrives with a formidable game, evident from his strong showing at The Sentry. His T14 finish, fueled by a scorching 62 during the tournament, showcased his ability to thrive in low-scoring conditions—an essential trait at Waialae.

While the fiery Englishman didn't claim a victory last season, his seventh rank in Strokes Gained (SG): Total highlights his consistency and ability to stay competitive. Oddsmakers are recognizing his potential to clinch his second PGA Tour victory this week, underlining his competitive edge.

Hatton's knack for scoring low, demonstrated by his impressive 11-under 62 at Kapalua, positions him well for a course like Waialae. His proficiency in securing birdies or better gained, ranking in the top three within this field, underscores his potential to keep pace in a tournament likely to witness a low-scoring affair.

His prowess as a short game and putting artist is undeniable, reflected in his impressive stats across various putting metrics. Hatton's consistency and proficiency on the greens, including top rankings in Putting Average, Putts Per Round, One-Putt Percentage, and SG: Putting, cement his reputation as one of the best putters on the Tour.

Moreover, his overall game is strong, with notable rankings in SG: Approach The Green and SG: Total, indicating a well-rounded skill set that positions him favorably to contend at Waialae.

With a track record of 15 top-5 finishes in 127 starts and consistent rankings in key statistical categories, Hatton's ability to navigate a new course like Waialae, coupled with his recent form and exceptional putting prowess, makes him a strong contender for a Top-5 finish.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (+500, bet365)

BetQL Projection: +155 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hideki Matsuyama stands as a strong bet for a Top 10 finish at the upcoming Sony Open. Matsuyama's proficiency with irons and his remarkable approach play are well-known strengths on the PGA Tour. Renowned as one of the best iron players, his precision on approach shots positions him as a formidable force at Waialae Country Club. This skill has been a cornerstone of his success on Tour.

His victory at this very event in 2022, marked by a career-best putting performance, demonstrates his ability to conquer this course. His familiarity with the course's nuances and his previous success here bode well for his chances to excel once again.

Despite a modest finish at The Sentry, Matsuyama's recent form doesn't necessarily reflect his prowess. His T48 finish in 2023 was a bit of a stain on his resume at this course, but it followed the aforementioned win in 2022 and a string of consistent performances in previous years, showcasing his ability to contend at this event consistently.

Analyzing his historical performance at the Sony Open, Matsuyama's track record speaks volumes. He's made six straight cuts at this event, with finishes including a win, a fourth-place finish, and consistent placements within the top 20 over the years.

Moreover, his current rankings in Proximity (29th) and Approach Shots Over 200 Yards (9th) further underline his strengths heading into this tournament. These statistics indicate his comfort and proficiency with the type of shots often encountered at Waialae.

Matsuyama's overall game, coupled with his history at this event and his skills with irons and approach shots, positions him as a strong candidate for a Top 10 finish at the Sony Open. Despite recent results not reflecting his full potential, Matsuyama's track record, skill set, and prior success at this course make him a smart bet for a top-tier finish.

Keith Mitchell Top 20 Finish (+400, Caesars)

BetQL Projection: +128 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Keith Mitchell is a promising contender for a Top 20 finish at the Sony Open, supported by his strengths that align perfectly with the demands of Waialae's layout.

His standout performance in SG: Off The Tee, particularly on comparable shorter courses under 7,200 yards, positions him as a frontrunner in terms of navigating Waialae's design. Mitchell's ranking as the 2nd-best player in this field emphasizes his ability to strategically position himself off the tee, a crucial aspect on a course like Waialae with its emphasis on accuracy and placement.

His consistent performance in SG: Off The Tee last season, securing a 7th position, further reinforces his proficiency in this aspect of the game. Mitchell's ability to generate distance and accuracy off the tee is a key factor in setting himself up for success on a course that rewards precision.

Additionally, his impressive ranking of 2nd in Total Driving underscores his well-rounded ability to combine distance and accuracy off the tee, further enhancing his suitability for Waialae's layout.

Analyzing these statistics in conjunction with the specific demands of Waialae, where precision and strategic positioning off the tee are paramount, Mitchell's skill set aligns well with the requirements of the course.

BetQL's projection for a Top 20 finish reflects Mitchell's potential to capitalize on his strengths and adapt them to excel at the Sony Open. Given his prowess off the tee, particularly on shorter courses, Mitchell's profile suggests he could be a strong contender to secure a spot in the top tier of the leaderboard at this event.

Gary Woodland Top 40 Finish (+160, BetMGM)

BetQL projection: -109 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gary Woodland's return to the PGA Tour after a challenging health journey makes his potential Top 40 finish at the Sony Open a testament to his resilience and talent.

Woodland's triumphant comeback to competitive golf, marking his first start since undergoing brain surgery in September, adds a compelling narrative to his participation in the Sony Open. Despite this hiatus, his commitment to the event underscores his determination to return to the sport he loves.

While the absence due to health concerns is significant, Woodland's track record speaks volumes about his capabilities. His history at the Sony Open includes eight career starts, with consistent made cuts and four top-25 finishes, emphasizes his familiarity and comfort at Waialae Country Club.

Analyzing his recent performances, Woodland's strength in key statistical categories remains impressive. His rankings in SG: Off The Tee (15th), SG: Approach The Green (6th), and Approach Shots Over 200 Yards (25th) highlight his proficiency in crucial aspects of the game, setting a solid foundation for success at this event.

Despite the challenging circumstances preceding his return, Woodland's history of making 18 cuts in 24 TOUR starts last season and his four TOUR wins, including the 2019 U.S. Open, demonstrate his pedigree as a skilled and seasoned golfer.

While a Top 40 finish might not seem high, considering Woodland's recent health journey and his return to competitive golf, achieving such a result would signify a commendable comeback. His resilience, combined with his strong game in key areas, positions him as a contender to secure a respectable finish at the Sony Open, showcasing his determination and skill on the course.