PGA Model Picks: Best Bets for the 2024 RSM Classic

The 2024 RSM Classic marks the final event of the PGA TOUR season, bringing heightened stakes to Sea Island Golf Club. With players vying for their last chance to secure TOUR cards for 2025, every shot matters across the Seaside and Plantation courses. This unique two-course setup emphasizes accuracy and strategy, making it a key battleground for the season’s climactic finish. Using a data-driven approach, our PGA model has identified the best betting picks for outright winners, top finishes, and value plays to help you capitalize on the action.

Ludvig Aberg To Win (+1000, BetMGM) - 3-Star

The BetQL model has been red hot in these offseason golf tournaments, picking the winner last week with Rory McIlroy and cashing out subscribers yet again. Let’s see if it can keep producing this week with Ludvig Aberg taking home a win at the RSM Classic. The model is projecting Aberg at fair odds of +687, so we are getting some decent value here in this wide open tournament.

Aberg is just 25 years old, and is already ranked fifth on the OWGR. He’s one of the best on the planet, which could come as a shock to some people since his name isn’t as prominent as someone like Bryson Dechambeau or Collin Morikawa. He was seventh in total strokes gained, including 12th off the tee and 22nd on approach. His biggest area of struggle has been his putting, but even then, he is ranked 63rd on Tour. That is still within the top half of all golfers, so no matter how you slice it, he has been really good.

Keith Mitchell To Finish Top-5 (+1100, BetMGM) - 5-Star

The model is giving Mitchell fair odds of +329 to finish within the top five at the RSM Classic, so getting 11/1 here at BetMGM has triggered a 5-star play and shows a ton of value at that kind of price.

Mitchell is ranked 85th on the OWGR right now, but he has been playing like one of the better golfers on Tour this past year. He’s 19th in total strokes gained, including sixth off the tee and 11th on his approach. Much like Aberg, the only area where he has struggled is with his putting. That obviously is not ideal when taking a guy to finish inside the top five of a tournament, but he has been so good everywhere else that the model still thinks there is a lot of value with this bet. As one of my favorite golfers, I have a ton of faith in Mitchell that he can get this done for us.

Sepp Straka To Finish Top-10 (+400, BetMGM) - 4-Star

The model is giving Straka fair odds of +231 to finish inside the top-10 at the RSM Classic, so getting 4/1 odds is showing a good amount of value for the model as a 4-star wager in this tournament.

The veteran Austrian golfer is ranked 36th on the OWGR as it stands, but he has had some struggles this season. Even though he has proven in the past that he has some serious talent, he was ranked 93rd in total strokes gained this past season, which was slightly in the bottom half of players on tour. He hasn’t been that bad off the tee or on his approach, ranking 49th and 44th in those areas, respectively. However, he is 105th in putting, joining the last two golfers on this list in struggling with that part of his game. He’s still a very talented golfer, he’s just having a down year. Nonetheless, the model likes him this week.

Adam Hadwin To Finish Top-20 (+320, BetMGM) - 5-Star

The model is projecting fair odds of +120 for Hadwin to finish inside the top-20 at the RSM Classic this weekend, so getting +320 odds is showing quite a bit of value for us and is a 5-star wager right now.

It is very hard for me to recommend Hadwin right now, as the aging Canadian golfer has really had a tough time this season. He’s 37 years old and he is starting to feel some of the pain that father time inevitably brings to everyone. He’s ranked 107th on tour in total strokes gained this season, including 104th off the tee and 115th on his approach. He just doesn’t have that same power and accuracy that he once had when he was younger. However, we have seen it plenty of times before where your putting improves, and the same can be said here. He’s 85th on Tour in putting accuracy, which has been his strongest aspect to this point. Considering this is a pretty wide open field, Hadwin can certainly finish inside the top-20 for us.

Taylor Montgomery To Finish Top-40 (+300, BetMGM) - 5-Star

The model is projecting fair odds of -114 for Montgomery to finish inside the top-40 at the RSM Classic, so getting anything plus money here for this to occur is going to trigger a 5-star wager on the model with a lot of value at 3/1.

Montgomery has been terrible in every part of his game outside of one. He’s 165th in total strokes gained, 183rd off the tee, and 168th on his approach. All of those are among the worst for all golfers on Tour. However, hilariously enough, he is actually the No. 1 ranked putter in the PGA. No one has been better than he has in that area, it is just getting to that area that has been his biggest problem. Still, this is just finishing inside the top-40, which isn’t a super difficult task. If he can sink his putts effectively and save a lot of pars, he should be able to get there for us.

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