NASCAR Pick Sheet: YellaWood 500

NASCAR Pick Sheet: YellaWood 500

Welcome to the show. 

Every track type is different. Short tracks require different skills than unrestricted, intermediate speedways or road courses. There are layers within those course types: for example, rough-surfaces require tire management and there are as many minor variations as there are tracks.

But then we come to the carburetor-restricted superspeedways and while there is a variation between Talladega Superspeedway and Daytona International Speedway, they are a difference without a distinction. With Atlanta Motor Speedway reconfiguring this year to become a pack racing venue, we are still trying to figure out how it fits into the mix.

Plate tracks are an entirely different style of racing. There is a lot that is not in a driver’s control and that makes these among the most difficult races to handicap. With tight drafting packs that can include the entire field, every little mistake is amplified. It’s not only 'Big One' crashes that can end a driver’s day – badly-timed passes, the loss of the draft, and mistakes on pit road are only part of the series of problems that can also ruin a drivers day.

NASCAR Odds, Picks For YellaWood 500

1. Martin Truex, Jr. ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1967 | +300 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +2000 | Best Odds: BetMGM +2200

For the past several years, Truex has been listed as one of the drivers to avoid on this track type. Drivers seem to go through stages on the carburetor-restricted superspeedways in which they crash a lot and Truex was locked into that for quite some time. After finishing 20th or worse in 10 of 11 races from the start of 2019 through the 2021 Coke Zero 400, he logged a top-15 in last year's edition of the YellaWood 500. Since then, he’s swept that mark in 2022. There are others with slightly better statistics, but Truex’s consensus odds of almost 20/1 elevates him because there is a more attractive payout than his competitors. 

2. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1200 | +220 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1217 | Best Odds: FanDuel +1300

Blaney is the most recent repeat winner at Talladega with victories in fall 2019 and spring 2020. To find another driver with multiple wins, one must go back much further than is practical for a handicapping formula. And since nothing is truly predictive, this is as good a metric as any. Since winning in 2020, Blaney has only one more top-10 and an 11th on the 2.66-mile superspeedway, but he has some luck on his side after avoiding last week’s tire problems. 

3. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1200 | +200 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1175 | Best Odds: Caesars +1400

Talladega is never a place drivers want to go while needing a good points’ day, but after crashing out of the EchoPark 500 early that is where we find Elliott this week. The good news is that his recent record on this course type is solid with one win, three other top-fives and eight total top-10s in his last 11 pack races. The bad news is that he often lacks patience in the draft and can get shuffled to the back. The severity of that lapse depends entirely on how many drivers are still in the lead pack and when the 'Big One' crash occurs. 

4. Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1800 | +250 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1550 | Best Odds: DraftKings +1800

We’ve lost a little confidence in Wallace since his three-race streak of top-two results ended after a runner-up in this year’s Daytona 500. He hasn’t disappeared completely from the radar screen, however, because his last four results on this track type ended in the low- to mid-teens. That means he may be in contention to get to the lead in the closing laps and after winning his second race this season, he has the confidence to make that happen. 

5. Austin Cindric ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500 | +250 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1667 | Best Odds: Caesars, BetRivers +1800

Cindric’s Daytona 500 win is not the only reason he is handicapped within the top five this week. He has one of the five-best average finishes on carburetor-restricted superspeedways this year at 12.0 and the last two of these were top-fives in the second Atlanta and Daytona races. The one bit of minor concern is that he was outside the top 20 in the Geico 500.  

6. Erik Jones ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3000 | 400 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +2767 | Best Odds: BetRivers +3300

Jones may well be one of the most underrated drivers in the field this week. Because the plate tracks are so unpredictable, everyone gets a chance to score the occasional top-10 or -15. With enough attrition, part timers David Ragan, Noah Gragson, and Landon Cassill each earned one at Daytona in the most recent race on this course type. But the accumulation of multiples is one of the things we look for when handicapping these races. Jones has four results of sixth or better and two more results on the cusp of 10th in his last 12 plate races. 

7. Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1800 | +300 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1733 | Best Odds: DraftKings, PointsBet, BetMGM, BetRivers +1800

Fate owes nothing to anyone – but if she did, Busch should be high on the list. We try to avoid saying things like a driver is due a strong run because that doesn’t really work on carburetor-restricted superspeedways. On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine Busch won’t break out of his slump soon; he’s been outside the top 25 in six of his last seven oval track races and that simply must change. Talladega is as good a place as anywhere for luck to turn around.  

8. Noah Gragson ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2000 | +300 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +2083 | Best Odds: BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel +2500

Midweek, it was announced that Alex Bowman will not compete at Talladega because of concussion-like symptoms sustained in last week’s accident at Texas Motor Speedway. Gragson jumped from +8850 in consensus odds when he was listed as the driver of the No. 62 Beard Motorsports rider to +2083 at Hendrick Motorsports (HMS), which is slightly lower than the opening odds were for Bowman. He is still ranked about 15th in terms of the relative value of his odds compared to the field, so that makes him a good value. 

9. Aric Almirola ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3000 | +400 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +2767 | Best Odds: BetRivers +3300

Almirola has a plate win as recently as 2018 in the fall Talladega race. He scored three top-10s in the four carburetor-restricted superspeedway events the following year, and then had his results tail off a little bit. He had a top-five at ‘Dega in 2020 and no top-10s on either superspeedway the following season. This year, he got off to a strong start with a fifth in the Daytona 500. He finished eighth in Atlanta 2 and 13th in Talladega 1. If he continues to hang around with the leaders, a top-five is possible this week and at 4/1, that is an interesting bet. 

10. Corey LaJoie ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +10000 | +1200 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +8517 | Best Odds: DraftKings, Caesars, BetRivers +10000

With odds this long, one might assume LaJoie is a token longshot, but on plate tracks he is so much more. Beginning with an 11th in the spring Talladega race of 2019, he finished between sixth and 11th in four consecutive plate races. He was ninth in the 2021 Daytona 500 and 14th this spring. A fifth at Atlanta and another 14th in Talladega earlier this year makes him worth a modest bet with your couch cushion money for both the outright win and a top-five.

 *Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, PointsBet, BetMGM, FanDuel, and BetRivers