NASCAR Pick Sheet: Night Race at Bristol

NASCAR Pick Sheet: Night Race at Bristol

The Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway is the final race in the Round of 16 and with the first two events won by non-playoff drivers, we have a scenario that has never occurred in the history of the playoffs. That changes the way drivers approach this wild card event. 

Christopher Bell is the only one who knows for certain he will advance to the Round of 12. Kevin Harvick is 35 points below the cutline, and while a near-perfect race and catastrophes for four contenders would elevate him, he is effectively in a must-win situation. 

William Byron and Denny Hamlin are relatively safe and could lock in if they score enough points in the early stages of the race. One might also include Joey Logano in that group with his 40-point advantage, but Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Ross Chastain would prefer to not have to worry about the math; they want and need to have a strong run.

Daniel Suarez, Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric, Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon, and Chase Briscoe are separated by 15 points. Barring extremely strange circumstances, at least three of the drivers who fail to advance to the next round will come from that group. All 16 playoff contenders want to win, but finding Victory Lane for several of them is paramount.

NASCAR Odds, Picks For Night Race at Bristol

1. Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +700 | -115 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +733 | Best Odds: DraftKings, Caesars +800

Busch is two points below the cutline, which means his fate is more or less in his own hands – especially considering the level of experience among the drivers with whom he is head-to-head competition. Busch’s announcement this week that he will drive for Richard Childress Racing in 2023 will not have much of an impact in this cutoff race; Joe Gibbs Racing wants all three cars to advance. The No. 18 will probably go to Ty Gibbs next year, so owner points are important. Busch is more than capable of winning at Bristol. In fact, he won one race each in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

2. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750 | -110 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +708 | Best Odds: PointsBet +800

Jumping on a bandwagon can be tricky. One wants to get a seat before it starts to pull away, but there is a distinct possibility that it will simply remain in place and not move. The sportsbook traders are not much help because they’re forced to be a little cautious with a driver who can develop momentum at the drop of a hat – and as a result, Larson has been overvalued all season. Larson won this race last year when he had momentum, and this could be the week that he starts to show championship form once more. He’ll certainly be in the right frame of mind after signing a three-year contract extension with Hendrick Motorsports this week. 

3. Joey Logano ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500 | +200 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1433 | Best Odds: DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel +1500

Without a top-10 in his last four Bristol starts, Logano is not getting a lot of respect from the sportsbooks. This has been an erratic season for the 2018 Cup champion, but he has been solid on short tracks with results of sixth or better in three of the four races. Even if one wants to discount this year’s Bristol dirt track third-place finish, there is a positive impact from his runner-up in the first Martinsville Speedway event. Logano has two Bristol wins with the most recent coming in 2015. His last two efforts on this track were just outside the top 10 in 11th. 

4. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +700 | -115 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +629 | Best Odds: BetMGM +700

Hamlin is the favorite on most of the sportsbooks. Like Logano, he has two previous wins on this track, the most of which came in 2019. But also like the No. 22 driver, he has a relatively checkered history with four results outside the top 10 on the bullring since 2017 and only two top-fives. Given the modest return on this bet compared to more powerful drivers, it’s hard to recommend making a wager. 

5. Kevin Harvick ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +900 | +120 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +867 | Best Odds: DraftKings, PointsBet, BetMGM, BetRivers +900

It’s been a while since Harvick was below 10/1 on all major sportsbooks. This is a lot of confidence for a driver who basically must win his way into the next round. There are a couple of factors influencing these odds, not the least of which is that he has never failed to make the Round of 12 in eight previous attempts with the knockout formula. The other is his near-miss in this race last year when he finished second to Larson. There are few drivers better with their backs against the wall than Harvick.

6. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +800 | +100 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +850 | Best Odds: FanDuel +1000

When handicapping Bristol, we often look at a driver’s record on both short tracks and rough-surfaced courses. In four short track races this year, Bell has three top-10s with a best of second at Richmond Raceway. In four rough-surfaced races, he swept the top 10 with a best of fourth at Dover Motor Speedway and that may be the closest direct comparative to this concrete, high-banked course. Bell will contend for a top-five, but at even money he is not worth the bet. 

7. Alex Bowman ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3000 | +400 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +2833 | Best Odds: DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, BetRivers +3000

Bowman was a lot better last week than either we or the sportsbooks thought he would be. We ranked him 10th; his consensus odds of +2633 landed 14th on that chart. This week he is ranked 14th again on the consensus chart with slightly longer odds. Last week’s fourth-place finish at Kansas Speedway is replicable and his 4/1 odds for a top-five is an acceptable bet. Bowman finished fifth in this race last year and in his inaugural attempt in 2018.

8. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500 | +200 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +1350 | Best Odds: FanDuel +1600

Blaney needs to win this week, but not because that is required to advance. With a 36-point advantage over the bubble and 30 points ahead of the 10th-ranked driver, a solid run will put him in the Round of 12, but he needs more playoff bonus points to ease his way into the Round of 8. Among the likely contenders at Texas Motor Speedway next week, he will probably be seeded below the cutline in heavy competition with several drivers. Blaney is one of four drivers to sweep the top 10 on short tracks this year. 

9. Erik Jones ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +5000 | +700 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +4217 | Best Odds: DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel +5000

In our estimation, the sportsbooks have not yet caught on to Jones’ potential and they are treating his Southern 500 as a fluke. It was not – and to think otherwise is a mistake. He has run strong on a variety of courses this year and hovered around the top 10 in three of the previous four rough-surfaced races. In the last 18 races of 2022, (a rolling half-season), Jones has a top-15 average above .500 and that has kept him in contention. The biggest reason to recommend him this week, however, is the three-race streak of Bristol top-10s he brings into the weekend, including a sweep of the top five last year. Jones is listed at +180 for a top-10 at DraftKings and that is a safer bet. 

10. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750 | -110 top-five

Consensus Odds*: +700 | Best Odds: DraftKings, PointsBet, Caesars +750

Elliott has been uneven at Bristol throughout his career with five top-10s in 11 starts; none of these have been earned consecutively. A pattern that has emerged recently, however, is that he is much stronger under the lights in the fall race than he was in the spring. Entering last year’s Night Race at Bristol, he had a three-race streak of results seventh or better and was racing for the lead when he was doored by Harvick. Wins this year at Dover and Nashville Superspeedway underscore his strength on rough-surfaced tracks.  

 *Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, PointsBet, BetMGM, FanDuel, and BetRivers