Euro 2020 Match Previews and Picks for Tuesday, June 15

Tuesday’s 2020 Euros schedule only includes two matches. However, both matches come from Group F, which has been labeled the “Group of Death.” The four teams in the group have combined for six World Cup titles and six European titles. Needless to say, it’s worth taking a closer look at these two matches.

Hungary vs Portugal, Group F

As the reigning champions of Europe, Portugal is hoping to get off to a fast start. Keep in mind that they tied all three of their group games during the last Euros, including a match with Hungary. With matches against France and Germany looming, the Portuguese squad needs to start out with three points. The good news is that Portugal has eight wins and four draws in its 13 matches since last September. The other piece of good news is that they still have superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, as well as a better supporting cast around him than they did in 2016. The likes of Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva are both playmakers coming out of the midfield while Andre Silva and Diogo Jota both have a strong goal-scoring record in international matches. The question is whether or not we see a changing of the guard defensively or Portugal continues to go with 38-year-old Pepe and 37-year-old Jose Fonte.

Meanwhile, Hungary enters the Euros on an 11-match unbeaten run. The problem is they haven’t faced the level of competition during that stretch that they’ll face in Group F. Wins over Iceland and Turkey are Hungary’s most impressive wins during that stretch. Plus, there is only a limited number of players in the Hungarian squad who play in top European leagues. They also have limited goal-scoring options outside of center-back Willi Orbán, who has five goals in 22 caps, and 33-year-old striker Ádám Szalai, who has 23 goals in 71 caps. Unless they can cash in on set-piece opportunities, the Hungarians will have to be stout defensively because they can’t depend on scoring goals in the run of play.

Our projections believe that Hungary will have its hands full in this game. Clearly, there is a talent difference between these two teams. Portugal’s recent form offers little evidence that they will struggle to dismantle Hungary and start the tournament with a win.

Prediction: Portugal 3-0

France vs Germany, Group F

The last two teams to play their opening match at the Euros are playing in easily the most anticipated match of the Group Stage. While Les Bleus wasn’t overly convincing in a pair of World Cup qualifiers back in March, it’s been business as usual for the French in a pair of friendly matches leading up to the Euros. France also has an embarrassment of riches, especially with the surprise return of Karim Benzema. He gives France a serious goal-scoring threat up top, which is something they lacked when they won the 2018 World Cup. Benzema will be joined by the likes of Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe, Kingsley Coman, and others who will have even more space to operate with teams knowing they can’t leave Benzema alone. Meanwhile, the French midfield is loaded with Paul Pogo, N’Golo Kante, and others. Those players help to make things easier for the French defense, which has kept a clean sheet in four straight matches heading into the showdown with Germany.

As for the Germans, they have had plenty of problems in the run-up to the Euros. They have just six wins in 13 matches since September 2020. That stretch has also included a  6-0 Nations League loss to Spain and a shocking loss to North Macedonia in World Cup qualifying. It’s fair to question whether Joachim Löw still has a handle on the squad in what will be his seventh major tournament with the national team. That being said, there’s a little more youth and speed in the German squad than we saw at the 2018 World Cup when the Germans crashed out in the Group Stage. On paper, there is nothing inherently wrong with the German team, which has more than enough talent to win the tournament. But there are lingering concerns about Löw’s ability to pick the right starting lineup and press the right buttons, especially in such a challenging group.

It’s rare that two of the top favorites in a tournament play their opening match against one another, making this match tough to project. France is probably the safer pick and has a 39% chance of winning. Of course, the Germans have a 33% chance of winning and are just as capable of putting together a quality performance. In the end, our model has more faith in the French.

Prediction: France 2-1