Champions League Round Of 16 (1st Leg) Best Bets
Featuring PSG-Real Madrid, Benfica-Ajax & Bayern-Salzburg
Dan Karpuc - Feb 14, 2022, 2:03pm EST
Paris Saint-Germain (-101) vs. Real Madrid
BetQL Projection: PSG -147 ⭐⭐⭐
Tuesday February 15, 3:00pm EST
Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and PSG enter this match after going 3-1-2 in the Champions League Group Stage while Real Madrid went 5-1 with their only loss coming in a shocker against Sheriff back on September 28th. BetQL is listing PSG as the clear best bet in this matchup and gives them a 59.6% chance to win (-147 implied moneyline) while Madrid sits at just 17.4% in the model. PSG is projected to take 10.1 shots, including 5.6 shots on goal while Madrid is projected to take 6.8 shots, including just 2.6 shots on goal. The model simulated this game 10,000 times and the average score was PSG 1.9 to Real Madrid 1.0. Both of these teams are powerhouses; PSG leads Ligue 1 by a whopping 13 points while Madrid leads LaLiga by four points. In the end, BetQL projects that Messi and company will rise to the occasion in what should be an emotional match between two dominant clubs.
Benfica (+283) vs. Ajax Amsterdam
BetQL Projection: Benfica +182 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wednesday February 16, 3:00pm EST
Benfica went 2-2-2 in the Champions League Group Stage while Ajax went a perfect 6-0, including a pair of victories over Dortmund. However, the model sees much more value in betting on Benfica at +283 in this matchup. While Benfica isn’t projected to win the game outright, their +182 moneyline is 101 points away from their consensus odds and they’re projected to be much more aggressive on the offensive end. BetQL projects Benfica to take 13.1 shots, including 4.2 shots on goal while defensive-minded Ajax is projected for only 6.2 shots, including 2.9 shots on goal. Overall, the model is giving Ajax a 37.9% chance to win, Benfica a 35.4% chance and the Draw a 26.7% chance. We simulated this game 10,000 times and when Benfica won, they averaged 14 shots, including 5.1 shots on goal, along with 2.4 goals.
Bayern Munich at FC Salzburg Over 3.5 Goals
BetQL Projection: 4.6 Goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wednesday February 16, 3:00pm EST
Bayern Munich was a perfect 6-0 in the Champions League Group Stage and outscored their opponents 22-3 in the process. To put that into perspective, that was the Champions League’s best scoring offense and also tied for the league’s best scoring defense. Meanwhile, Salzburg went 3-2-1. BetQL is listing over 3.5 goals scored in this match as a four-star value and Bayern is projected to win 2.9 to 1.7 after 10,000 simulations. Bayern is projected to take 10.5 shots, including 4.8 on goal while Salzburg is projected to take 9.8 shots, including 3.5 on goal. As seen many times, Bayern has shown the ability to get over this 3.5 goal number on their own, but it’s worth noting that in simulations where Salzburg pulled off an upset in this match, they averaged 12.7 shots, including 5.6 shots on goal, with 3.4 goals in those wins. Therefore, the potential for a high-scoring match is clearly there. Keep an eye on Bayern's Robert Lewandowski; he’s scored a ridiculous 26 times in 22 Bundesliga matches and 37 in 30 contests across all competitions this season. He’s also scored nine goals on 19 shots on goal in the Champions League, averaging a goal every 57 minutes, which is just silly.
