STU
Stuttgart
Fri 10/30, 7:30 PM
SCHA
Schalke 04
STU +120 O/U 2.5
MUN
Bayern Munich
Sat 10/31, 2:30 PM
COL
FC Koln
MUN -504 O/U 4
DOR
Borussia Dortmund
Sat 10/31, 2:30 PM
DSC
Arminia Bielefeld
DOR -241 O/U 3
MAIN
Mainz
Sat 10/31, 2:30 PM
AUG
FC Augsburg
AUG -105 O/U 2.5 & 3
WER
Werder Bremen
Sat 10/31, 2:30 PM
EINF
Eintracht Frankfurt
EINF -129 O/U 3
LEI
RB Leipzig
Sat 10/31, 5:30 PM
MON
Borussia Monchengladbach
LEI +122 O/U 3
LEV
Bayer Leverkusen
Sun 11/1, 2:30 PM
FREI
SC Freiburg
LEV -103 O/U 2.5
WOLF
VfL Wolfsburg
Sun 11/1, 5:00 PM
HERT
Hertha Berlin
WOLF +157 O/U 2.5
FCUB
Union Berlin
Mon 11/2, 7:30 PM
HOF
TSG Hoffenheim
HOF -119 O/U 3

Use BetQL To Determine Bundesliga Best Bets

Our model lists best bets for every Bundesliga match

Solent Creatives, Flickr

What Are Best Bets?

Our proprietary models assign a 1-5 star rating to every spread, moneyline and over/under bet. Our best bets are determined by the difference between our projection and the consensus odds.

Five-star bets are the most valuable bets, followed by four-star bets and so on. The goal of the star ratings model is to make betting as straightforward as possible. The 5-star bets are the best bets because our model indicates a significantly different outcome relative to the current sportsbook line. Conversely, 1-star bets indicate a projected line that is very similar to the sportsbook line — typically a losing proposition for a bettor in the long run.

Augsburg-Mainz Best Bet

As seen above, Augsburg's +274 moneyline was listed as a five-star bet in our model when they took on Mainz on Sunday, June 14th. The reason for that was because our model listed Augsburg at +124 to win the match, a 150-point difference from the consensus. Our model's simulation gave Augsburg a 1.7-1.35 goal advantage. The result: a 1-0 Augsburg victory (and a win for our model).

Get access to Bundesliga Matchday 32 best bets right now!

How Best Bets Are Identified 

Our model projects team performance and takes into account player performance, matchups, weather and injuries. From there, we set our own line, compare it with Vegas and assign a star rating to each spread, moneyline and over/under bet.

The team ratings use a strategic combination of historical team results, the current matchup (including anticipated starters) and the projected outcome. Team ratings are dynamic and will update based on major player injury news. The team’s offensive rating is the core piece and carries the most weight. The defensive rating as well as home field advantage are each significant factors. Other factors (weather, injuries, narratives, etc.) are taken into consideration and applied where appropriate. 

Why Our Best Bets Change

 There are a number of factors that could alter a star rating. Speculation around injuries, weather, narratives, etc. oftentimes move the line throughout the day/week leading up to a game and, since our evaluation of the matchup is relative to the sportsbook, will impact the star rating. Keep in mind that movement often revolves around the sportsbook looking to hedge against significant loss. Fortunately, our model is deaf to the noise, so you get consistent winners.  

Why Accessing Our Best Bets Matters 

Generally speaking, 3-star bets (and better) are recommended for the average user. A more aggressive bettor can bet 2-star games, while a more conservative bettor should stick to 4 and 5-star bets. Additionally, you are able to scale the wager based on star rating. For example, if you are aggressively betting all bets rated 2-stars and above, we recommend that you bet a larger percentage of your bankroll on a 5-star bet than a 2-star bet.