Bundesliga Preview and Pick: Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig

One team is hoping to keep the title race alive while another is pushing for a top-4 spot when Borussia Dortmund hosts RB Leipzig in Bundesliga action this weekend. It’s a showdown between two of the top five teams in Germany with just three matches left in the season. The current betting odds list Dortmund as the favorites at home with a moneyline of +114 compared to Leipzig sitting at +236. There is also a +287 moneyline for a draw.

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Borussia Dortmund Preview

With three games left in the Bundesliga season, Borussia Dortmund finds themselves on the outside of next season’s Champions League spots. BVB is sitting at 55 points, which is one point behind Eintracht Frankfurt and two points behind Vfl Wolfsburg. That means they are within striking distance of a top-4 spot but don’t have a lot of room for error to drop points down the stretch. On the bright side, Dortmund has won five straight games against German opponents, including a 5-0 victory over Holstein Kiel in the DFB Pokal semifinals last weekend.

To a large extent, it’s been the BVB defense that has fueled the club’s late-season run. Edin Terzić’s side has kept three straight clean sheets, including a vital 2-0 win over Wolfsburg last month. Of course, that’s not been the case for much of the season, as Dortmund has conceded 42 goals in 31 Bundesliga games this season. But a strong defensive record for the remainder of the season could be the team’s ticket to the Champions League.

Meanwhile, the goals keep rolling in for the Black and Yellows. Star striker Erling Haaland has scored four goals in his last three games, giving him 25 goals on the season, which is the second-most in the Bundesliga behind Robert Lewandowski. Fortunately for BVB, it’s not just Haaland who’s scoring goals. As a team, they have 13 goals in their last four games. American Giovanni Reyna is responsible for three of those goals, nearly matching Haaland’s contributions during that span. English midfielder Jadon Sancho has also returned from injury and chipped in two assists in last weekend’s cup game, giving Dortmund another potential match-winner.

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RB Leipzig Preview

Leipzig’s title hopes are officially hanging by a string. The Red Bulls are seven points behind Bayern Munich with three games to play, so a loss to Dortmund will handle Bayern the crown before they play a few hours after the Dortmund-Leipzig match. However, Leipzig can guarantee a second-place finish with a win over Dortmund.

Unfortunately, Leipzig’s title hopes have lost steam over the past month. Julian Nagelsmann’s team dropped eight points during the club’s five Bundesliga matches in April. The Red Bulls were held scoreless in two of those five matches and then needed extra time to score in the DFB Pokal semifinals against Werder Bremen last weekend. As most expected, Leipzig has experienced occasional goal-scoring droughts this season after losing talisman Timo Werner last summer. During Bundesliga games, no player has scored more than seven goals, although five players have at least five goals during the campaign.

The silver lining is that Leipzig remains a strong defensive team, conceding the fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season. In their last six Bundesliga games, the Red Bulls have kept three clean sheets and allowed just four total goals. However, there have been a few occasions this season when Leipzig has conceded multiple goals to an opponent, so they are not impenetrable, especially against a team with Dortmund’s attacking prowess with BVB scoring three goals in the reverse fixture in early January.

The Pick

This game comes at an unusual time for both teams because Dortmund is set to face Leipzig next Thursday in the DFB Pokal final. That could have an impact on the mindset of either team and alter how each manager sets his lineup. Of course, while Leipzig has all but given up hope of catching Bayern Munich, Dortmund needs three points in this game and can’t be thinking about next week’s cup final. That means BVB will put its best lineup on the field and have the urgency to go forward and put Leipzig under pressure. Dortmund’s attacking talent should win out in the end, giving them a much-needed three points.

Pick: Borussia Dortmund 2-1