2024 Men's Wimbledon Draw Sleepers

2024 Wimbledon Betting

As Wimbledon approaches on July 1, much of the spotlight is on defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and the current top seed Jannik Sinner. Both players have showcased exceptional form leading up to the tournament, with Alcaraz defeating Sinner in the semi-finals at Roland Garros en route to his title win earlier this month. 

However, this year's draw has positioned these two titans on a collision course in the semifinals, opening the door for other players to make deep runs. Notably, American Tommy Paul and British Jack Draper stand out as potential sleepers who could capitalize on this situation.

The Contenders: Alcaraz and Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz (+250, BetRivers) enters Wimbledon as the defending champion and third seed. His path to the title last year included a five-set victory over Novak Djokovic, and his recent performance on grass is equally impressive, boasting a 17-3 career record on the surface. Alcaraz is scheduled to meet Frenchman Ugo Humbert in the fourth round, with potential quarterfinal matches against either eighth seed Casper Ruud or Queen’s Club champion Paul.

Jannik Sinner (+175, DraftKings), the top seed, has also been in dominant form this year, winning titles at the Australian Open, Rotterdam, Miami, and the Terra Wortmann Open in Halle, Germany. Sinner’s career on grass is solid, with a 19-10 record (5-0 this year), and he enters Wimbledon fresh off a win in Halle. Overall, he’s gone 38-3 on all surfaces this season. Sinner begins his campaign against Germany’s Yannick Hanfmann and faces a challenging path, potentially meeting 2021 finalist Matteo Berrettini in the second round and 2023 semifinalist Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals.

Tommy Paul: A Rising Threat

Tommy Paul (+5000, bet365) has been quietly building a strong case as a Wimbledon sleeper. His recent triumph at the Queen's Club Championship, where he defeated formidable opponents such as Draper, Sebastian Korda, and Lorenzo Musetti, underscores his capability on grass. Paul's previous best at Wimbledon was reaching the fourth round in 2022, but his current form suggests he can go further this year.

A former Australian Open semifinalist, Paul has the experience of performing well in major tournaments. His grass-court credentials have been bolstered by his recent performances, making him a dangerous outsider in the draw. Paul could potentially face Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, a matchup that promises to be a tough test for the defending champion.

Jack Draper: The Home Hope

British lefty Jack Draper (+6000, bet365) has also been making waves on the Tour. Draper's powerful serve and aggressive playstyle make him a formidable opponent on grass, as evidenced by his upset victory over Alcaraz at Queen's Club. Draper’s win against the defending Wimbledon champion showcased his ability to compete with the best, and his recent ATP Tour title in Stuttgart further highlights his potential.

Draper's journey at Wimbledon starts against Sweden's Elias Ymer, and he could face fellow Briton Cam Norrie in the second round. With a favorable draw and the home crowd behind him, Draper is well-positioned to make a deep run, despite potentially facing Alexander Zverev in the third round.

The Wider Implications

The fact that Alcaraz and Sinner are set to clash in the semifinals means that one of the two heavy favorites will be eliminated before the final, significantly boosting the chances of other competitors. With Djokovic and other top seeds like Medvedev and Zverev in the opposite half, the draw dynamics favor those who can seize their moment.

For bettors looking for value, Tommy Paul and Jack Draper represent intriguing options. Paul's consistency and recent success on grass, combined with Draper's powerful game and recent form, make them both solid sleeper picks. As the tournament unfolds, the spotlight may well shift from the established stars to these rising talents, who have the potential to leave their mark on this year's Wimbledon.