Patrick Mahomes' Super Bowl Props and Betting Insights

Super Bowl LIX will feature the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs battling on the biggest stage in sports. Everyone will be going through all kinds of props and sides trying to find an edge in this game, but one of the most popular players to bet on will clearly be Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The three-time Super Bowl champion will look for yet another ring, and his player props are going to be heavily bet in the days leading up to kickoff.

Our friend John Ewing of BetMGM was kind enough to share some of the early betting data with us on some of the most popular props on Kansas City’s superstar.

Passing Yards

Open: 254.5
Current: 252.5
Ticket%: 52% Under
Money%: 56% Over

It is very interesting that the line for his passing yards has actually gone down from 254.5 to 252.5, despite 56% of the money being on the over. The only way that is possible is if some serious sharp action came in on the under, which is what I suspect happened here. The public is on the under as well, but just barely.

Passing Touchdowns

Open: 1.5
Current: 1.5
Ticket%: 88% Over
Money%: 96% Over

Everyone and their brother is betting on Mahomes to have at least two passing touchdowns in this game. A massive 88% of tickets and 96% of cash is on him to do so, and if I was you, I would be very cautious with this one. With that sharp action coming in on his under passing yards, I have a feeling they could be running the ball more than you might think in this game.

Interceptions

Open: 0.5
Current: 0.5
Ticket%: 59% Over
Money%: 64% Over

It seems a majority of people also think that Mahomes is going to throw an interception in the game as well. This makes sense, as if they think he is going to be passing the ball a lot, his chances at an interception get higher and higher. Again, I would be careful here as well. While the Eagles are the No. 1 ranked passing defense, I don’t think Mahomes will be asked to pass a ton.

Passing Completions

Open: 24.5
Current: 24.5
Ticket%: 89% Under
Money%: 95% Under

Once again, we have a prop that is getting an overwhelming amount of action on one side. Absolutely no one thinks Mahomes is going to complete 25 passes in this game. I’d personally have to agree with them, as I don’t think he is going to go off through the air, but it certainly is a bit worrisome that everyone else thinks that way as well.

Passing Attempts

Open: 36.5
Current: 36.5
Ticket%: 59% Under
Money%: 88% Under

I have seen some serious sharp action on this one, with a lot of professional money seemingly coming in on the under. This coincides with the under for the passing yards we talked about earlier, so it wasn’t shocking to see this. The Chiefs are favored here, and if they manage to get out to a lead, that just means less passing for Patrick.

Rushing Yards

Open: 28.5
Current: 40.5
Ticket%: 62% Under
Money%: 74% Under

Here we have another instance where the line has moved dramatically from the open. Within minutes, this line started shooting up from 28.5, and now it has gotten all the way to 40.5. Curiously, a majority of bets and money is on the under, and yet that line kept going up and up. We could see some serious Mahomes scrambling in this one, but now that the line is up to 40.5, has it gone too far?

Rushing Attempts

Open: 4.5
Current: 5.5
Ticket%: 98% Over
Money%: 99% Over

Here we go with the first wager that is receiving 99% of the money on Patrick Mahomes. There is some large liability here on him to scramble six times, and the book will very much be hoping that he decides to stay in the pocket as much as possible.

Longest Rush

Open: 12.5
Current: 11.5
Ticket%: 99% Over
Money%: 98% Over

This line opened at 12.5 and is receiving 99% of tickets and 98% of money to the over, and yet, the line moved down to 11.5. I find that to be extremely curious, don’t you?

Longest Completion

Open: 35.5
Current: 35.5
Ticket%: 99% Over
Money%: 99% Over

Almost every dollar and ticket is taking his over 35.5 longest completion, and yet, the line hasn’t moved an inch.

Passing + Rushing Yards

Open: 287.5
Current: 285.5
Ticket%: 67% Under
Money%: 56% Over

This one is just like his passing yards, with 56% of the cash on the over, and yet the line has moved down from 287.5 to 285.5. My best bet for his props is taking his under in terms of yards through the air and passing attempts. I think the Chiefs are going to stick to the ground game a lot in this game, at least, more than the oddsmakers think.

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