NFC Championship Game: 49ers at Rams Matchup & Prediction

49ers at Rams (-3.5)

What else can I say here? If you have been reading my articles throughout the NFL playoffs, you know I love the 49ers' chances of getting to the Super Bowl. I picked them outright over both the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers, and now we get them as an underdog against their division rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.

One of the reasons I loved the 'Niners throughout these playoffs is because of their potential path to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys had a poor run defense and a fading offense towards the end of the season, making San Francisco valuable as an outright winner pick. Green Bay offered much of the same with the 28th-ranked run defense against what I think is the most creative and dynamic rushing attack in the NFL. Not to mention the drastic improvement the 49er defense made over the last half of the year while getting healthy. Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans put himself in the head coaching carousel with his incredible game plan against league MVP Aaron Rodgers and the No. 1 Packers offense. Both games were great matchups for San Francisco, and now they have another one against the Rams, paving their path to a Super Bowl berth.

The 49ers have been a nightmare for the Rams, a demon that they have not been able to slay. Los Angeles has been swept by San Francisco for three straight seasons, six games in a row. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 both SU and ATS against Rams head coach Sean McVay in his career, and what's even more impressive is L.A. has been the favorite in eight out of those last 10 games. In Week 18, San Francisco gave McVay his only loss ever after having a halftime lead; he had been 45-0 when leading at the half. It's safe to say that Shanahan has McVay's number.

In their last matchup in Week 18, the 49ers beat the Rams, 27-24, even with L.A. playing for a division title. They were outgained by San Francisco 449 to 265 yards, and Rams QB Matthew Stafford was sacked five times in the game. In their Week 10 game, the 'Niners whipped L.A., 31-10, doubling them up in time of possession while picking off Stafford on his first two drives of the game. They ran for 156 yards against the Rams' tough run defense.

San Francisco has shown time and again that they match up well against what the Rams do, and there is no reason to believe that won't continue.

There is a serious problem the Rams are going to have to fix fast if they want to win a championship. They have to stop giving up massive leads late in games. Sunday against Tampa Bay was just another example, and it happens far too often under McVay. They have every opportunity to put teams away, but then make a plethora of mistakes late. They did the same exact thing against San Francisco in Week 18, quickly getting out to a 17-0 lead, before crumbling. They should have easily won blowouts in both games, but a lack of discipline and turnovers kept the opposing team's hopes alive.

Let's also be honest here, are we sure L.A. is really that good? They beat Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals in the wild card, a team that essentially quit at the mid-way point of the season, as Kingsbury's teams so often do. Then they defeated the defending champions, which would be more impressive if the Bucs weren't missing so many key players due to injury.

San Francisco is dealing with a ton of injuries as well, and it is the one reason why I would hesitate betting them just yet. Still, L.A.'s offense is way overvalued right now. They ranked just 14th over the second half of the season, and had average performances against two defenses in the playoffs that had been bad in that same time span.

Plus, do the Rams really have home-field advantage here? If Week 18 was any indication at SoFi Stadium, far from it. Even Stafford complained that the crowd was full of San Francisco fans, which disrupted their offense.

49ers vs. Rams Prediction

There are many reasons I love San Francisco here. Let's start with the fact that Shanahan as an underdog is extraordinarily valuable, where he is 27-18 (60%) ATS, including 2-1 in the playoffs. He's won 12 of his last 19 games as an underdog outright. His teams control the clock and dominate with the most creative and dynamic rushing attack in the NFL, and have already shown you that they know how to beat the Rams. Matt Stafford is just 14-35 (29%) ATS against teams over .500 in November or later, including being just 7-8 as a favorite and 5-9-1 (36%) ATS in those games.

Division opponents facing off in the playoffs also have a very interesting backstory. Visiting teams in these matchups are 15-8 (65%) ATS since 2003. The underdog is also 14-6 (70%) ATS, making San Francisco pretty valuable here.

I truly believe that the 49ers are an excellent matchup against the Rams, and I have backed them every step of the way since the beginning. The injury report will tell me more about whether to continue doing so, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a thumb and shoulder injury. DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner should be good to go, but were both questionable before the Packers game. LT Trent Williams also played against Green Bay, but was questionable before the match and played hurt. TE George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel both noticeably limped off the field after the final drive.

Keep an eye on the injury report as the week progresses, but I'd be shocked if they all didn't play for a game as important as this one. If everyone is in, it's green light go for me.

Pick: San Francisco +3.5, +150 ML

Get a BetQL Day Pass for just $4.99 to see all of our best bets across every sport!