No. 22 Texas at Texas Tech Odds, Prediction for Week 4

No. 22 Texas Longhorns

How things have changed in just a few weeks for the Longhorns. Everything was looking great for Texas up until QB Quinn Ewers got hurt in their game against Alabama. Ewers looked like the real deal, moving the ball effectively down the field against the vaunted Crimson Tide defense, but his loss for the season is going to sting for a bit. Hudson Card comes in to replace Ewers as the starting QB and the good news for the Longhorns is that he isn't the worst option to have as a backup. Card started games last year for Texas and has experience, plus he led Texas to a 41-20 win over UTSA last week.

The Longhorns showed off their defense in their game against Alabama. Last week against UTSA, the defense stepped up in the second half, allowing Texas to pull away. This is a team that isn't just all about offense for once, and the defense has shown a huge improvement over the last couple of years. The running game has one of the best runners in the country in Bijan Robinson, even though the run blocking has been pretty poor so far. Robinson has 51 carries for 311 yards and five touchdowns, and that is with the poor offensive line play.

This is a complete team that came very close to beating Alabama with their backup QB. The Longhorns are 3-0 ATS this season already as well.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech has played back-to-back games against ranked opponents and went 1-1 in those games. They found a way against Houston a couple of weeks ago but lost 27-14 to NC State this past week. The good news for them is the defense has allowed just 293.7 yards per game, which is fantastic. The rush defense has been pretty reliable, holding teams to just 82.7 yards per game. They will need that defense to step up against a guy like Robinson, who can rip you for big gains at any moment. They could step up and make some big plays in the run game against Robinson with how poorly the offensive line has played for Texas to start the year, so don't be shocked if they limit him.

As for the offense, they have really struggled to get anything going on the ground. Tahj Brooks has led the team with 27 carries and 132 yards with four touchdowns, and they need more production from him and this offensive line to get things done. QB Donovan Smith has played inconsistently at best, throwing for seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

Basically, the offense has struggled and the defense has been great.

My Prediction

I would usually side with Texas here, but I dont want to do that with how well Texas Tech's defense has been playing, especially at home. Instead, I think the smart play for this game is the UNDER 59.5 for the game. I trust both of these defenses to step up and make some big plays for their teams. The Longhorns will win in the end I think, but I'd rather just play the under with two great defenses and two questionable offenses.

Give me the UNDER 59.5 here.