Misvalued 2022 College Football Win Totals

BetQL's NCAA Football Model simulated every game of the upcoming 2022 season 10,000 times and identified many win total value bets you should make as soon as possible. Scroll down to find out which teams are undervalued or undervalued compared to their current consensus odds. You might be shocked to see some of the teams below...

Team Spotlight: Charlotte 49ers (4.5 Consensus, 7 BetQL)

Coming off of a 5-7 overall record (3-5 in Conference USA) last season, the Charlotte 49ers are projected to exceed expectations, according to the BetQL NCAAF Simulation Model. Our model is projecting the 49ers to win seven games and easily surpass their 4.5 win total.

The Charlotte offense will run through senior quarterback Chris Reynolds (30 total touchdowns: 26 passing, 9 interceptions, 2,680 passing yards), who will get all three of his starting wideouts back: Grant DuBose, Victor Tucker and Elijah Spencer, all of whom have solid size and historical production. In fact, eight offensive starters will return while running backs Calvin Camp and Iowa transfer Shadrick Byrd should make up an above-average rushing attack. Defensively, this team struggled limiting opposing teams through the air in 2021, but they’ll be led with some veteran secondary players this year.

The model is projecting them to lose their Week 0 game to Florida Atlantic on the road before bouncing back with back-to-back wins against FCS William & Mary and a statement victory over Maryland at home. However, that momentum is expected to be erased with back-to-back close road losses to Georgia State (by one point) and South Carolina. A win against UTEP and a loss to UAB will set up an offensive explosion versus Florida International, the first of four wins in Charlotte’s last five games en route to bowl eligibility, per the simulation. Overall, there's a lot to like about their outlook this year.

Team Spotlight: Florida State Seminoles (6.5 Consensus, 4.5 BetQL)

Coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign, Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is probably feeling some pressure after going 8-13 in his first two years. Unfortunately for the program, outside of their first game against Duquesne, there are no "gimmes" on their schedule. Some of their toughest matchups include a home game against LSU, road game at Louisville, at NC State, vs. Clemson, vs. Georgia Tech at Miami and against Florida at home to close out the regular season. After 10,000 simulations of every game this season, BetQL projects the Seminoles to win between four and five regular-season games.

Dual-threat quarterback Jordan Travis will enter the year as the undisputed starter, but FSU was among the worst FBS teams in third-down conversion percentage last season, have a lot of question marks after bringing in many transfers at impactful positions in the offseason and lost a number of impactful players (especially on the defensive front). When crunching the numbers against their opponents, the model has no faith that the Seminoles will surpass their 6.5-win mark.