World Series Game 4 Best Bets: Dodgers Aim to Sweep Yankees

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a chance tonight to sweep the New York Yankees in the 2024 World Series, which would be quite incredible considering their circumstances. Coming into the series, they had two reliable starting pitchers in Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Walker Buehler had been terrible all season coming back from Tommy John surgery, but over his last two starts, has suddenly regained his Cy Young finalist form from two years ago. Now, they have a bullpen game today with a chance to win a championship. The Yankees had a full starting staff and rested bullpen, and while their pitching really hasn’t been the issue, their bats have gone completely silent.

Let’s start with Yankees rookie starter Luis Gil, who has only pitched once this entire postseason, back on Oct. 18 against the Guardians in the ALCS. That’s an 11-day gap between pitching, however, I am not as worried about that as I would usually be. That start against Cleveland came off of an even longer break for him, and he was able to put in a solid performance. Still, Gil has been spotty with his command all season, and I could see him struggling early to find the zone with such a layoff since he last threw. I’d look to play some guys like Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, or Mookie Betts to walk in their first at-bat. I also don’t see a very long leash here for Gil with New York’s season on the line. Manager Aaron Boone will turn to his bullpen at the slightest sign of trouble.

On the other side, we talked yesterday about how the Dodgers needed a good start out of Buehler because they had a bullpen game today. They certainly got that, and I am still very suspicious about Buehler’s sudden ability to pitch well despite a velocity dip. He got drilled for six runs in the NLDS, and then the last two starts he is suddenly a better pitcher with worse metrics. Very curious. Nevertheless, the Dodgers got exactly what they wanted. Manager Dave Roberts used six relievers yesterday, but just three of them surpassed 20 pitches. He’ll use his high-leverage arms if he gets a lead, but I expect a majority of the innings will be eaten by long-relievers like Landon Knack, Brent Honeywell, and Ben Casparius.

Typically, I would say a desperate Yankees team gets the win here to avoid the sweep. I’ll be very curious to see where the money goes for this game, as each of the first three games the Yankees have had more money on their moneyline. Perhaps with a 3-0 lead, people will now start betting L.A., which could help New York. At the current prices, the Dodgers probably provide more value at +125, but I am hesitant to back that right now.

Temperatures in this game will be a bit warmer than yesterday, at around 60 degrees at first pitch. Winds are expected to be around 7 mph, blowing across the field toward third base. Interestingly, the total has gone under in two of the three games, and pushed in Game 1. Umpire Doug Eddings is behind the plate, who is typically pitcher-friendly. FanDuel opened this at 9, to which I would bet the Under. It’s now 8.5, and I still see a small bit of value in the Under there.

Best Bets: Under 9 or 8.5, Freeman/Ohtani/Betts to walk in their first at-bat, Luis Gil Under 3.5 strikeouts

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