At BetQL, our team of MLB betting experts goes above and beyond just looking at win/loss records. We dissect every matchup, analyzing the starting pitchers' ERAs and recent performances, along with the opposing teams' batting averages against pitchers of that handedness.
We factor in historical trends for first-inning scoring for both teams, and any relevant ballpark factors that might influence offense. Our in depth research is what sets our Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) picks apart. We aren't just throwing darts – we're providing you with the most in-depth analysis possible to inform your bets every single day of the MLB season.
MORE: TODAY'S BEST NRFI BETS
At BetQL, our team of MLB betting experts goes above and beyond just looking at win/loss records. We dissect every matchup, analyzing the starting pitchers' ERAs and recent performances, along with the opposing teams' batting averages against pitchers of that handedness.
We factor in historical trends for first-inning scoring for both teams, and any relevant ballpark factors that might influence offense. Our in depth research is what sets our Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) picks apart. We aren't just throwing darts – we're providing you with the most in-depth analysis possible to inform your bets every single day of the MLB season.
MORE: TODAY'S BEST NRFI BETS
Not surprisingly, we’re going back to the Rockies, who continue to dominate YRFI bets. Of Colorado’s 31 games, 23 have included first-inning runs. To be fair, Cal Quantrill has been solid in the first inning, only allowing first-inning runs in two of his six starts. Also, the Pirates rank among the bottom teams in first-inning runs scored. However, Quantrill has concerning numbers against hitters he’ll face in the first inning. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and Michael Taylor are a combined 9 for 18 against Quantrill, making the Pirates a threat to score early.
On the other side, Martin Perez has allowed just one run in the first inning of his six starts this year. But several Colorado hitters have a good track record against Perez. Ryan McMahon and Brenton Doyle are both hitting .300 or better and both will bat in the first inning. The Rockies have started to produce a little bit more in the first inning, so they can score early too. It’s not just Colorado pitchers who are giving up first-inning runs, so the Rockies hitters have a chance to contribute to the team’s YRFI record.
With Dylan Cease starting for the Padres, first-inning runs may not seem likely in this game. But the Padres and Diamondbacks are tied for second in first-inning runs scored. Therefore, we have to give this game a chance, especially since Cease has been far from perfect in the first inning this year. The D’Backs have the bats at the top of the order to give Cease a little trouble.
On the other side, young starter Blade Cecconi will have to navigate a San Diego lineup that’s excelled at scoring early runs. After two starts, Cecconi owns a 2.25 ERA. He’s also been flawless in the first inning of both starts. But facing the Padres is a different challenge with Jurickson Profar and his .342 average in the leadoff spot. In fact, the Padres are averaging 1.53 first-inning runs on the road this season, so we like our chances with this YRFI pick.
A "Yes Runs First Inning" bet, also known as YRFI, is a wager in baseball betting on whether at least one run will be scored in the first inning of the game. It's the opposite of a "No Runs First Inning" (NRFI) bet.
For your YRFI bet to win, you only need one team to score a run in the first inning. This could happen with just one hit, like a home run, or through a combination of baserunning and RBIs (Runs Batted In).
YRFI bets are a popular choice because they offer the chance for a quick win or loss, with the action decided within the first three outs for each team. However, they also tend to have lower odds compared to NRFI bets since statistically, runs are more likely to be scored throughout a game than not at all in the first inning.
Predicting win rates for Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets is tricky. Historically, runs are generally scored throughout a game, making No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets slightly more likely to win overall. However, the real key lies in analyzing each matchup.
Pitchers with a tendency to walk batters or struggle early could open the door for first-inning runs. Strong batting lineups facing weaker pitchers on offense-friendly fields with good weather also increase YRFI chances. Because of these factors, sportsbooks set lower odds for YRFI bets compared to NRFI bets, reflecting their higher statistical likelihood of winning.
Maximizing your win rate for your YRFI bets today requires a deeper dive and a concrete strategy. Here are some key tips to consider:
Know Your Pitchers: Focus on starting pitchers with a history of allowing runs early. Look for high walk rates, a tendency to struggle in the first inning (inflated first-inning ERA), or pitchers facing unfamiliar lineups. These factors can create opportunities for baserunners and early scoring.
Sharpshooters at the Top: Analyze team batting lineups. Teams with strong hitters at the top of the order, known for getting on base and generating power, pose a significant threat in the first inning. Look for matchups where these "hot bats" face pitchers who might struggle to contain them.
Park Power: Don't underestimate the impact of the ballpark. Hitter-friendly parks with short fences or favorable weather conditions can tilt the odds in favor of YRFI bets. Warmer temperatures and parks known for producing more home runs can increase the chance of early offense.
Beyond Statistics: Stay updated on recent news and trends. Is a pitcher coming off an injury? Is a key hitter slumping? Injuries or unexpected lineups can affect performance and influence the likelihood of first-inning runs.
Shopping around for the best odds is crucial for maximizing your return on YRFI bets. Here's a breakdown of some top sportsbooks known for competitive YRFI offerings:
Dive deeper into your betting strategy with BetQL's extensive suite of resources, including: