NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For AdventHealth 400

NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway

As we get further into the season, comparative tracks assume greater importance. Kansas Speedway belongs to a list of similarly configured 1.5-mile courses, including Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Charlotte Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, and Homestead-Miami Speedway.

With races at Vegas and Texas in the books, recent momentum can be added to historical stats from the past two seasons. In the past three seasons, only one driver has a .500 top-five average, but nine drivers have finished in the top 10 more than half the time. 

Two drivers finished inside the top 10 in the first two similarly configured 1.5-mile track races as the majority struggled in one event or the other. However, seven racers earned three or more top-10s at Kansas proper in the last four races of the past two seasons. Two drivers have five-race streaks to their credit, and it is no surprise that Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are this week’s strong favorites.

At +1035, BetRivers continues to show the most lucrative odds for the top-10 ranked drivers, while the other four books we track, DraftKings, MGM, Caesars, and FanDuel, do not come close with an average consensus line of +958.

NASCAR Picks For AdventHealth 400

1. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +400

Consensus Odds*: +430 | Best Odds: MGM, Caesars, BetRivers +450

No matter which numbers one evaluates, Hamlin is a favorite this week. He’s finished 11th or better in six of the last nine races on "cookie-cutter" tracks, won this race last year as part of a five-race, top-five streak, and is the most recent winner this season with the previous week’s Dover Motor Speedway victory. The downside is that he has not earned a top-five in his last four attempts on this track type, and two of those results were in the 30s. 

2. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +380

Consensus Odds*: +377 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +400

Larson’s consensus odds are +161 points better this spring than last year for the fall Kansas race, which indicates how much more significant his momentum is in 2024. In his last five races on this track, Larson has one win, two second-place finishes (one of which came in last year’s edition of the AdventHealth 400), and a fourth last fall. Additionally, Larson finished in the top five in five of the previous eight oval races, including a victory on the similarly configured track in Vegas. 

3. Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +600

Consensus Odds*: +600 | Best Odds: All five books +600

Reddick opened at 6/1 on all five books we track, suggesting that the traders have confidence in him but not enough to alter the line significantly before money begins to come. Reddick has the record to support his third-place ranking in consensus odds, but there seems to be some reluctance toward the team's overall strength. He has five top-fives, an eighth, and a ninth in his last eight "cookie-cutter" races. Another stat of note is that Reddick’s odds of +600 on consensus this week is +275 lower than he had in 2023.

4. William Byron ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +700

Consensus Odds*: +780 | Best Odds: BetRivers +900

Considering Byron’s Daytona 500 win, he has shown remarkable consistency in the following 10 races of 2024. Winning that early often means teams begin experimenting, and the results suffer. Byron won two more races since he drew the No. 1 pill in the Daytona 500 lottery, and they came on two entirely dissimilar tracks: the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and Martinsville Speedway. Last year, Byron won at Vegas in the spring and Texas in the fall. In the past two seasons, he’s finished outside the top 10 only once in nine similarly configured 1.5-mile track races. 

5. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +800

Consensus Odds*: +960 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +1100

There is a big swing among the five books this week concerning Bell. His least lucrative odds of 8/1 at DraftKings and FanDuel stand in sharp contrast to the 11/1 he opened with at MGM and BetRivers. The reason for this is most likely the struggles, and hence the uncertainty, suffered by this team in the pits. Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) has been erratic in this regard for the past two seasons, and one never knows when the team will stumble. However, on similarly configured 1.5-mile tracks last year, Bell ended strong with three consecutive top-fives, including a win at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

6. Martin Truex Jr. ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750

Consensus Odds*: +770 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +800

Truex easily had the best Kansas streak entering last fall’s race. He finished in the top 10 in eight consecutive races with an average finish of 6.25. Expand those parameters and had four top-fives, including a pair of victories, in the five races before that streak. Dating back to 2014, he’s been outside the top 15 only twice in 19 races. This week, it is not a question of whether he will run fast but how well the team calls his strategy. 

7. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +900

Consensus Odds*: +1000 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +1100

Elliott’s victory at Texas a few weeks ago was a massive surprise for us and the traders. He opened that week with consensus odds of +1480, a significant decline of +663 points from his last Texas race. The biggest shock of the weekend was how aggressive he was on restarts. Following a caution, Elliott typically loses anywhere from two to five positions in the first few laps and then struggles to regain them. It’s impossible to say he’s completely reversed this trend, but he may be heading in the right direction. 

8. Ross Chastain ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2200

Consensus Odds*: +2160 | Best Odds: All but MGM +2200

Chastain is often an overly enthusiastic pilot in the cockpit of a NASCAR stock car, but his strength is also a weakness. He has been known to press a little too hard and cross over that magic line of grip that occasionally initiates contact with other drivers or stalls his momentum. Chastain earned seven top-fives and a pair of seventh-place finishes in his last 16 "cookie-cutter" races when he maintained the edge. He finished outside the top 20 in three of the previous seven when he's missed. 

9. Ty Gibbs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500

Consensus Odds*: +1440 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1800

Gibbs’ consensus odds place him just inside the top-10 ranked drivers this week, giving bettors a few options. At DraftKings, his odds of +400 for a top-three and +190 for a top-five allow bold gamblers to cover a modest outright win bet. Gibbs is still unknown in many regards, but he’s improving on similarly configured 1.5-mile tracks, with a seventh at Homestead last fall and a fifth at Vegas this spring. 

10. Brad Keselowski ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +4500

Consensus Odds*: +4300 | Best Odds: FanDuel +500

Whenever Keselowski wins next, it will come as a big surprise, and with that in mind, he is worth some couch-cushion money for an outright win. He came close in Texas a few weeks back with a second-place finish to Elliott and was also in the top five at Vegas last fall. He is more likely to score a top-10 than win, and he shows plus odds (+160) at DraftKings this week for that result. If you are particularly enthusiastic about his prospects, Keselowski opened at +550 for a top-five.

*Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, Fanatics, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers.