Every day the team at BetQL has you covered with our favorite NRFI picks for today's MLB games. Find which games we love and why we think they are the best NRFI bets for today. You will get our picks, expert analysis, and the best line available. Tail us on our No Runs First Inning picks and let's get six out to cash out!
Every day the team at BetQL has you covered with our favorite NRFI picks for today's MLB games. Find which games we love and why we think they are the best NRFI bets for today. You will get our picks, expert analysis, and the best line available. Tail us on our No Runs First Inning picks and let's get six out to cash out!
Rockies at Marlins NRFI (-113, FanDuel)
It was a great day for us yesterday, as we finally got some positive regression to go our way. We went 3-0 on full-unit plays, 0-1 on our 1/2 unit play, and 1-0 on our 1/4 unit play for a +2.75u day. Let's see if we can keep it up today on what is an absolutely terrible slate that features just six games to choose from.
I'm going back to the well here with this NRFI for a full unit play again that we cashed yesterday. Once again, the pitching matchup is dreadful, but I still think we are getting a good price here at FanDuel of -113 for a NRFI. BetMGM has this juiced up to -130, so it's a nice discount.
Colorado has RHP Peter Lambert on the mound getting this start, a former starting pitcher who was converted to the bullpen this season. He's struggled just as much as he did as a starter, allowing nine earned runs in 17.1 innings of work. He's not a good pitcher, but the good news is that he gets to face a Marlins offense that is really awful. They own an 81 wRC+ and are batting just .230 as a lineup against right-handed pitching. Hopefully, Lambert can get us past them for one inning.
On the other side, RHP Edward Cabrera gets the ball for the Marlins, and he also has struggled a lot in 2024. He's allowed nine earned runs in 15.1 innings of work, as well as 16 hits. However, just like his counterpart Lambert, he gets to face an offense that is just pathetic up at the plate. The Rockies own a 78 wRC+ and are batting .239 as a lineup against right-handers, and come in as the third-worst offense in baseball. The hope is that Cabrera can give us one clean inning against them here.
These are some NRFI's today that I would bet, but don't think are worth a full unit play:
Cubs vs. Mets - 1/2u
Giants vs. Red Sox - 1/4u
Nationals vs. Rangers - 1/4u
*1/2u = Half Unit
*1/4u = Quarter Unit
In baseball betting, NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a wager on how many runs will be scored in the first inning, with the focus being on zero runs being scored in the first inning!
Essentially, you're betting for there to be six outs recorded before any runs are scored. NRFI has become a popular betting option because it offers a quick result – you only need to wait for the first inning to be over.
MLB games are a toss-up in the first inning when it comes to scoring. Roughly half the time, no runs are scored by either team in the opening frame. This might seem surprising considering the overall offensive increase in baseball. The reason for this quirk isn't entirely clear, but it happens around 50% of the time.
Winning NRFI bets requires a keen eye on pitching matchups, team situations, and a tiny bit of luck. If you are looking to be more successful at NRFI bets, here are a few ways to improve your odds:
With the 2024 MLB season still young, pinpointing the current best pitchers for No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets can be tricky. We simply haven't seen enough games from each pitcher to establish a clear trend. However, to help you make informed decisions, we've provided some insights from the 2023 season.
The Miami Marlins dominated No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets last season for a confluence of reasons:
Strong Pitching Staff: The core statistic behind their success was a dominant pitching staff. Their 97-61 NRFI record translates to a whopping 61% win rate, indicating their pitchers consistently shut down opposing offenses in the first inning.
Low First Inning Runs Scored: The data confirms this - the Marlins allowed an average of only .44 runs in the first inning. This incredibly low number speaks volumes about their own offense's inability to score runs early.
The Marlins averaged a meager .44 runs in the first inning, even worse on the road at .33 runs. This translates to one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league, ranking third-worst with an average of 4.07 runs per game overall.
In essence, the Marlins' weakness became their strength for NRFI bets. Their anemic offense rarely scored early, but their fantastic pitching staff consistently shut down opponents in the first inning, making them the clear leader in NRFI success last season.
Dive deeper into your betting strategy with BetQL's extensive suite of resources, including: