PGA Tour Betting Picks, Predictions & Sleepers

PGA Tour Betting Picks, Predictions & Sleepers: 2024 PGA Championship

The 2024 PGA Championship will take place at the Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY. Brooks Koepka took home the win here last season, and this year's event will feature 156 players who are sure to be in for another challenging course. The purse is a whopping $17.5 million, with the winner bringing home $3.15 million.

Our model has been crushing it overall this season on these finishing-position picks, not to mention a few outright winners, so be sure to check out our model’s best bets and sleeper picks for this week’s PGA Tour event below!

How to Bet The PGA Tour 2024 PGA Championship

Last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, we cashed in for +750 when Rory McIlroy won the tournament! Chalk up another outright winner for the BetQL model, which has now hit two of the last three.

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player, and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history.

After running our PGA Model, these particular finishing position bets are standing out with the most value on the board. 

Note: odds presented below come from BetQL’s PGA Model. Star ratings are on a 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

Top Finishing Position Model Picks For The 2024 PGA Championship

Scottie Scheffler To Win (+450, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Scheffler +318 odds to win the tournament, thus making his +450 BetMGM price a three-star value. He's back this week after not having a bet on him over the previous few, and you had better believe that the model had to put something down on Scottie. Simply put, he's the best golfer on the planet and everyone knows this, including the sportsbooks with his insanely low 4/1 outright odds. He's already won four tournaments this year, as well as taking home the first major, The Masters. He's the concensous No. 1 on the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and the FedEx Cup. He's 1st in Strokes Gained Total, Off The Tee, and Approach To Green. The only part of his game where he has seemingly struggled is with his putting, where he ranks 97th in SG. He was the runner-up here last year, so you know he is out for revenge.

Jon Rahm Top-5 Finish (+450, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Rahm +204 odds to finish in the top five at this tournament, making his +450 odds at BetRivers a four-star value. The Spaniard has not been the same dominant player that he was before he joined LIV Golf, but that certainly doesn't mean that he is bad by any means. He's still the 5th-ranked golfer in the world via OWGR and is very dangerous every time out. He's only played at the Masters Tournament since he is not a part of the PGA Tour anymore, where he finished 45th. It was far from his best performance, and he struggled here last year as well, coming in 50th.

Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish (+400, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Cantlay +158 odds to finish in the top 10, making his +400 odds at BetRivers a five-star value. The American is ranked 8th on the OWGR, showing that he is still a top-10 golfer in the world. He's 13th in the FedEx Cup currently, so he is right there toward the top with the other contenders. He's managed two top-10 finishes in 11 events so far, and has a decent shot profile to this point. He's 56th in SG: Putting, 61st in total SG, and 75th in SG Off The Tee. However, he has struggled with his Approach To Green ranking, sitting at 127th.Last season, he came in 9th here, so he will be looking to improve on that and at least stay in the top-10.

Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+260, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Finau +105 odds to finish in the top 20 at this tournament, making his +260 odds at DraftKings a five-star value. The veteran golfer is ranked 30th on the OWGR, and has been slipping over the last few years. He has six top-25 finishes so far this season, and even a runner-up, but overall it has been a bit of a struggle. He's 46th in the FedEx Cup and even has a missed cut. Last season, he came in 72nd here and really had a tough time. He's actually 14th in SG: Approach To Green, but that has been offset by some horrendous putting, ranking 160th in SG there.

Tom Kim Top-40 Finish (+130, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Kim +106 odds to finish in the top 40 at this tournament, making his odds at DraftKings a four-star value. Not much to say here about the South Korean, other than he is ranked 82nd in the FedEx Cup right now and 26th in the world via OWGR. It has not been a good season for the very young golfer, and he has already missed two cuts. He missed the cut here last year and will be hoping to make it this season. He really hasn't done anything well in terms of SG so far but has particularly struggled Off The Tee, where he ranks 139th.