XFL Week 3: Line Movement Report

Exploring XFL line movement heading into Week 3

Analyzing line movement is one of the most important aspects of betting. Line movement occurs when money comes in on one side or another and the betting line or spread is impacted. XFL line movement is tracked from where the line started (otherwise known as the “open”) to where the line either currently sits or where it finishes; known as the “close”. Experienced bettors will track the XFL betting line to find the most opportune time to place a bet. When the betting line moves so do the overall XFL odds which corresponds to how much a bet will pay off. If you are able to track the line movement and time your bet correctly, you can maximize your winnings. With BetQL, you are able to see the entire line movement from open to close! Here are the three most significant shifts heading into Saturday.

Spread

Is it possible that the XFL's most viral Week 2 moment contributed to this shift? Decide for yourself:

As you saw above, the Guardians put up a goose egg on the road against the Defenders last week. After starting 8-for-19 for 44 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, quarterback Matt McGloin was benched for Marquise Williams, who went 4-for-8 for 50 yards in relief. However, the Guardians offense as a whole was a complete failure from start to finish, which doesn’t exactly paint an optimistic picture for them against the BattleHawks, who have shown glimpses of brilliance despite their 1-1 start. Dual threat quarterback Jordan Ta'amu and company lead a rare run-heavy offensive scheme and became double-digit favorites as the week rolled on. McGloin's status for this game is unknown, but after his comments last week, he will undoubtedly have a very short leash.

Moneyline

I have the Roughnecks listed as my best moneyline bet this week. With Aaron Murray now ruled out, Taylor Cornelius and Quinton Flowers will split the work under center for Tampa Bay, which has gotten no touchdown passes and five interceptions from that position through two games. Meanwhile, P.J. Walker has thrown seven touchdowns and just one interception for the Roughnecks, who are off to a perfect start. There's obviously more to the game than quarterback play, but this is the most lopsided matchup of the week in that regard. This line shifted as Houston gained more and more positive attention as the week progressed.

Total

Don't be scared to bet XFL unders. A ridiculous 98% of public bettors are hammering the under in this game, and for good reason. After putting up 23 points in Week 1, the Guardians put up nada on the road against the Defenders last week. The Guardians offense as a whole was a complete failure from start to finish, which doesn’t exactly paint an optimistic picture for them against the BattleHawks, who nearly beat the Roughnecks in Houston, losing 28-24 last week. This BattleHawks offense is designed to run the football. Last week, quarterback Jordan Ta’amu went 30-for-37 for 284 yards, but also ran the ball eight times for 32 yards and a touchdown. The team ran the ball 35 more times as well. In Week 1, St. Louis ran the ball 41 times compared to 27 passes. As 10-point favorites (the heaviest on the slate), the BattleHawks are expected to be in firm control of this game, which lends itself to a ground-heavy game script with clock management in mind. The total dropped 3.5 points as the week progressed and it's likely that it'll close below 40 right before kickoff.

Check out updated XFL odds, public betting data, and line movement data on BetQL!