How to Make Money Betting the XFL

How to Win Money Betting the XFL

The revamped XFL is back and they are all about betting! We have been keeping an eye on the XFL and, surprisingly, the product is pretty watchable. Unlike the XFL from the past and the AAF, the new and improved XFL is giving us something we can actually watch, but more importantly something we can really bet on. I have watched every XFL game so far this season and I have tracked a few trends I believe can lead to profit. Below are our favorite XFL betting trends that will hopefully win you some cash until it is time for March Madness.

Bet On Talented Quarterbacks

One of the many downfalls of the AAF was the fact they had zero quarterback talent. The XFL has done well to snag a few QB’s who have NFL experience. There are three quarterbacks in the XFL that have some real NFL caliber: Landry Jones, Cardale Jones, and P.J. Walker. Not a ton of NFL starts between them, but they all spent time in real NFL systems, which is a huge plus. So far in the XFL season, these three quarterbacks are 4-1 against the spread.

Although the XFL gameplay resembles college football in a sense, the strategies have been much different. A college football team that has a below-average quarterback will try and run the ball into the ground, while in the XFL, teams have been throwing the ball no matter who is under center. Running the ball effectively has not shown to be that impactful in the new XFL. If you have a quarterback who can really sling it, you have a good chance to cover the spread.

The teams that have had trouble scoring, let alone covering the spread, all have below-average quarterbacks. Looking at the Tampa Bay Vipers who have scored a total of 12 points so far this season. They trotted out AAF backup Aaron Murray to start the season, and now, due to his injury, are playing XFL backups. The New York Guardians had to bench Matt McGloin at halftime due to his big mouth and poor play, and the Los Angeles Wildcats started a quarterback who had been with the team for about a week before opening day due to injuries above him on the depth chart.

Similar to the NFL, quarterbacks really matter, and they may even matter more in the XFL. If you want to bet an XFL game, take a deep look at who is starting under center before you place that wager.

Home Field Advantage Matters

Home teams in the XFL are 6-2 straight up so far this season, and 5-3 against the spread. Although the data isn’t perfect on this, it is enough of a trend that you can craft some winning picks. It isn’t a huge surprise that a lower level of talent doesn’t travel well. One of the best examples of that is the New York Guardians who played well in Week 1 at home. However, once they had to travel to DC in Week 2, it all fell apart and they were held scoreless against the Defenders.

Combine our two trends here to make one powerful trend. If an XFL team has an experienced quarterback and they are at home, feel free to lay the points.

Keep an Eye on the Line Movement

Since the XFL is so new, handicappers haven’t totally figured out how to set lines. At BetQL, we track all XFL line movement from open to close and we can tell you that the movement in the XFL is unlike the NFL or college football. Line movement is happening all throughout the week. Again, quarterbacks make all of the difference in the XFL, so if there is an impending injury make sure you hammer the line before the news comes out.

Due to the point-after rules in the XFL, the point spreads can mean a whole lot more. It also changes the football numbers we all know and love. When you can score 9 points in one possession it really makes a 6.5 point spread look different, for example. We are now starting to see double-digit spreads in the XFL so if you can capitalize on the line movement at the right time, you can start stacking tickets.