WTA Birmingham Preview and Picks

History

Tournaments is being played on the same Edgbaston Priory Club in Birmingham since its addition in 1982.  The event was re-categorized from International to Premier one in 2014 which means more points and prize money, but got demoted to ‘250’ or international status this year yet again.

Ashleigh Barty defeated Julia Goerges in the 2019 final. Both are not here with Barty decided not to play this week while Julia retired from tennis last year.

Favorites and Top Seeds

Weak field with none of top 10 and only one – Elise Mertens from top 20. The 8 seeds are within the first 52 of the rankings and last direct accepted player is Kristyna Pliskova who is 89th.

This will be the 2nd appearance for Elise Mertens in the event while losing in R1 in 2018 to qualifier Jakupovic while being a -350 favorite. Mertens’ form on grass regressed over the years after a QF in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and starting from qualies winning 4 matches in a row and losing to Jankovic in Mallorca in 2016. Keep in mind that during these runs 5 years ago she was just outside of top 150.  Only 24-18 w/l record and +4.2 ROI.

Kristyna Pliskova will be a compelling matchup for the top seed coming as early as 2nd round. The Czech had a run to the QF final here 2 years ago beating her sister Karolina along the way and with her height and serve, but very limited movement, she is still someone that can matchup against the best on that surface.

Daria Kasatkina is an engaging prospect in the top part of the draw. She had a run to the QF in Wimbledon in 2018 but early losses in 2019 put aside such aspirations that her game can evolve more on grass, but a R1 vs Hercog will gives us some glimpse of where she is heading.

37-year-old Sam Stosur returns after a long layoff, more than a year, as she decided to stay at home amid travel restrictions because of the Covid pandemic. She was also nursing a heel problem and became a mum as her partner Liz Astling gave birth to a girl last June.   She is a speculative dark horse, but we have to see at least couple of matches from her to see where she is.

Second seed Ons Jabeur have a 39-15 record on grass and is one of the few players who managed to play that many matches on the green. She brings a 30.7% ROI as well mainly influenced by her win over Konta in Eastbourne 2019 as a +600 underdog. She was drawn in R1 against Kvitova at Wimbledon 2 years ago so assessment of her capabilities should not be bothered by that loss.

Ons is surrounded by players who are good on that surface and can run into trouble given that this is her first event switching from months of clay.

Players such as Nina Stojanovic, who went on a rampage last week in Nottingham, beating Dodin (+185) Vekic (+310) Martincova (+110) while barely being edged by Konta as +230 underdog in the semis surely made money to some who was managed to get on board with her and didn’t think that the win against Oceane was a fluke.

Donna Vekic will look for a better outing after the Croat lost to Stojanovic in R2 and Shuai Zhang is playing a final against Konta in Nottingham after long season of consecutive losses in various surfaces the Chinese found her place on the grass.       

Picks

Top Part of the draw is mind blowing. There is clearly no clear cut favorite and hard to asses someone who can manage to get to the final. But for the sake of pure value I think Kasatkina has the necessary tools to push further with one of those 3 players Jabeur/Vekic/ Zhang being the best prospects to come from the bottom part.