2020 Women's Olympic Tennis Preview and Picks

History

Tennis was part of the Olympics from the start - all the way since 1896 but had some problems with defining amateur players and it was dropped from 1928 up until 1968 when it returned as an exhibition event.

1984 was the year when it was reinstated for good and open to anyone to try even under 21 years old which was forbidden before that.

In a surprising out of nowhere fashion Monica Puig won the gold medal in 2016 in Rio defeating Kerber. Monica hasn’t been seen since, as she struggled coping with the accomplishment and although it was amazing winning the gold medal it sort of destroyed her career going forward  

Favorites and Dark Horses

Top Half

World No.1 and Wimbledon champion Ashleigh Barty leads the draw which is filled with quality players that deserve their own recognition as well

Barty is amazing 36-6 on the year, winning 4 titles, and is +20.2 % ROI and is always the favorite no matter what field or draw she ends up with. The Aussie has over 70 W% in grass, outdoor and indoor hard and her ROI all around is over 20%. Even in the rare cases where odds for her are less than -135 she has constantly delivered and is able to avoid surprising defeats.

Barbora Krejcikova who is having the best year of her life, cruising with a 34-10 record and +27.5% ROI and making the top 20 debut with winning Roland Garros, hasn’t seem to slow down at all with a loss to the champion Barty in Wimbledon 4th round and winning the Prague event just a week ago. She is 18-7 on hard-court last 12 months with +17.7% ROI mainly due to her huge upset as a +450 underdog to Sakkari in Dubai in March. Her playing style which is like what Barty offers in terms of slices causes problems on each surface and opposition still haven’t figure out how to counter. 

The Player Ashleigh developed some sort of rivalry within the last year is Aryna Sabalenka

The Belarussian is on her way in a potential SF matchup, while they will try to meet for the 4th time this year while their overall h2h record currently stands even at 4.

Aryna finally got over the Grand Slam hurdle with reaching the SF at Wimbledon as she has previously struggled to get to QF alone on such big stage. Her hard-court record took a tumble a bit in 2021 with 14-5 but with -1% ROI but has to do with her opposition during these times – twice losing to Muguruza surely is nothing to be ashamed of. Her hard hitting game can blow everyone from the court when she has her day and would be fascinating to see how her progress continues contesting on bigger and bigger stages.

Garbine Muguruza can’t be overlooked despite her recent not so great results. Her great start of the season was derailed by a Left Thigh injury while competing in Charleston in April that had effects in the coming months, as she lost as a -550 favorite twice. Kudermetova is probably the hardest 1st round opponent anyone could get right now, and despite her record is hovering around 50% on this surface she is close to +20% ROI with often scoring upsets when bookies overprice her.           

Bottom Half

Naomi Osaka returns to tour after taking a break from press conferences and tennis altogether to look after her mental health.

This will be her first event after withdrawing from her 2nd round match in the French Open by the end of May. This will be her first Olympics and on home soil would look for sure to return in style.

The current US Open and Aussie Open champion has all the capabilities to take the gold medal with only the little obstacle that it will be without crowd to give her even more power at home. Naomi is 24-3 on hard surface last 12 months with a staggering +27% ROI  

One of the most intriguing R1 matches is Sakkari and Kontaveit. Not often you see 19th and 28-th player in the world going at it so early and both especially Maria has had great year coming up with a SF at the French Open and her confidence grows with each day passing.

Last year’s French Open champion Iga Swiatek hasn’t exactly flourished on hard courts yet, even with a win in Adelaide in February she is still -11.4% ROI in 2021 with some unexpected losses like the Konjuh one in Miami as a -600 favorite. The young Polish girl still has to be closely monitored while she further establishes herself in the top 10.

Karolina Pliskova, who finally got out of the funk she was in since the start of the year, with reaching the Wimbledon final, would be an entrancing one to look for here as she could have switched to needed gear back after months of mediocrity and bad results. Her record is horrible on this surface last 12 months, but we are all aware of her big game and huge serve and such conditions could really benefit her and could be a real threat not only in the bottom part of the draw but for the tournament altogether.                  

Picks

Naomi is the favorite by the bookies with Barty coming up close 2nd     and I could really see that this is basically more with the home country effect, but I have doubts with such long time without playing competitive tennis how will look like. So that +350 on Barty looks juicy and with the Aussie to win the quarter at +105 as well.

Also a bit of gut feeling Osaka won’t make the final so Pliskova or Iga to make final or betting on them on the each way looks to carry good amount of value in my eyes.