Wimbledon 2021 Women's Preview and Picks | BetQL
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Wimbledon 2021 Women's Preview and Picks

Favorites, top seeds, and dark horses to watch

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History

Women’s event at Wimbledon was added 7 years later than men’s one, at 1884.

The Championships is the oldest tennis tournament with Martina Navratilova winning the event with 9 and most consecutive ones with six (1982-1987).

The Williams sisters have recorder a total of 12 titles (7 for Serena and 5 for Venus) with Serena losing the last 2 finals here in 2018 and 2019.

Simona Halep, who is the defending champion, won’t play as she was forced to withdraw because of prolonged calf injury sustained all the way in May in her 2nd round match in Rome vs Kerber. She was on course to return in Bad Homburg but was a late withdrawal there and in Wimbledon as well couple of hours before the draw was made on Friday noon.

First Quarter

World No.1 Ashleigh Barty is the 2nd favorite to win the event just behind Serena Williams but with only 4th round best performance on the event I still wonder why that is the case.

Ashleigh has a respectable 52-16 record on Grass but with only +3.1% ROI and 8-7 in Wimbledon with a -38.7@ ROI she has a good amount of value to be opposed as her odds are shortened because of her top ranking but it hasn’t backed up with performance on such turf yet. Barty withdrew from Berlin tournament with a right hip injury as well so no preparation coming in.

The winner from Siniakova and Konta, which is a fascinating R1 matchup, could be an early test for the world no.1 as both showed some form on the way to prepare for this Grand Slam. Konta who is naturally good on grass is 54-31 all time with a +10% ROI and a SF and QF in London, won the title In Nottingham, but she didn’t face a player from top 40 all week and wasn’t favored more than -160 while Siniakova just lost the final in Bad Homburg to Kerber but scored an upset in R2 getting past Pegula as +180 underdog. Even with 5-6 record in Wimbledon, Katerina has accumulated +15.7 % ROI and is a good player to back in an underdog role like in this matchup with Johanna.

French Open champion Krejcikova is only 1-4 on Grass while 17th seed Kiki Bertens announced that this will be her last year on tour and that she doesn’t have anything in the tank left. Bertens has been hampered with Left Achilles injury that prolonged and limited her return to form and with that decision regarding her future and 2-6 record on the year she is an early candidate to lose despite her high rank and that’s why bookies have priced Marta Kostyuk, a player 47 ranking places below her, as a -240 favorite.

Azarenka has 2 QF and 2 SF in Wimbledon but hasn’t been able to get past the 4th round since 2015 which leads her to 32-13 record but only -6.8% in ROI which leads plenty of space to Anett Kontaveit to make a deep run.

The Estonian lost a final in Eastbourne this week to Jelena Ostapenko but definitely showed some flashes what she is capable of, but what worries me about her is the decision to end her coaching relationship with Ain Suurthal just before the tournament start. Without coach and only a physical trainer in her corner that’s some bold move so wonder how it will pay out.

Kasatkina followed up her loss to ons Jabeur in Birmingham’s Final with a QF showing in Eastbourne and seems as one of the inform players coming in here, but falls into a bracket with unseeded Jelena Ostapenko a possible R2 rematch from Eastbourne which the Latvian won in straight sets.

Daria has a QF in Wimbledon in 2018 but was beaten in R1 in 2019 and Ostapenko has been on such a roll that if she can sustain that level will be hard for the Latvian to lose.

Ostapenko has been exceptional on return as of late, never mind the title run in Eastbourne she’s been very hard to contain and also she has lowered her double faults which has been always a problem for her

Final Prediction: Johanna Konta vs. Jelena Ostapenko             

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Second Quarter

Elina Svitolina is a vulnerable 3rd seed in this portion of the draw with Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber lurking around in a possible QF clash.

Svitolina is only 18-19 on Grass, but she did make a run to the SF in Wimbledon in 2019, which really came as a surprise, given the fact she wasn’t able to get past ½ finals in any of her grass court adventures in her career, a total of 19 tournaments.

Muchova is a prospect who can manage to go in a similar run as the one she did in 2019 with beating Kontaveit +140 and most notably Karolina Pliskova as a +530 underdog before she was eliminated by Svitolina in the QF. Svitolina and Muchova are projected to meet again on the same stage of the tournament for a 2nd edition in a row.

As mentioned before Serena Williams has lost the the last 2 finals here, one to Halep and one to Kerber. She has won a record 23 Grand Slam titles, 7 from which came her on Grass. However, she has not won one since Australian Open 2017 and has been absent from the final in last 2 years. Last time she was not in a final in single year, before 2020, on Grand Slam level was in 2006. With 87-10 record on Grass and 80-9 in London she is yet again one of the biggest favorites for the title despite her limited action and lack of form.

An exciting matchup against Kerber in R3 could show us where Serena is in her preparation. Angelique took home the title in Bad Homburg this week and showed great form after dropping a decision in straight sets to Azarenka just a week before in Berlin. She was in all sorts of trouble against Kvitova in the SF as the Czech served twice for the match but the German forced her way back and ultimately won the deciding set tiebreaker. Match vs Siniakova in the final was a walk in the park comparing to the Kvitova and Anisimova won.

Cori Gauff made worldwide headlines 2 years ago, while she was 15 years old, she came from the Qualifying all the way to the 4th round where she lost to eventual champion Simona Halep. On her way to that enormous achievement she defeated Venus Williams, a 5 time champion here as a +330 underdog. Her preparation for the tournament started well with a win over 17 ranked Elise Mertens only to lose a tight encounter against Sevastova as a -200 favorite. Think bookies spotted that Cori has a 26-11 record as a -200 to -120 favorite record with +20.9 ROI so I see lot of drops on her prices after it gets released in that range.

Final Prediction: Karolina Muchova vs. Serena Williams    

Third Quarter

Sofia Kenin and Karolina Pliskova are the highest seeds that occupy this part of the draw but neither has been good whole year and I totally expect this trend to continue.

This is the first year in her career that Karolina Pliskova has failed to win a match on grass leading up to Wimbledon. She lost to Pegula in Berlin and Giorgi in Eastbourne and her game has regressed badly after acquiring Sasha Bajin as her coach to start the 2021 season. She is only 15-12 on the year with the only bright spot being a final in Rome on clay in May, which was a brutal reminder of how far has he come but how far she actually was comparing to Iga Swiatek that day not taking a single game and getting double bagelled in only 46 minutes.

After winning the Australian Open in 2020 and most notably losing the French Open final in 2020  Kenin has been mired in a long slump and her form is far from what she is capable of demonstrating. She was beaten far too many times by lower ranked players and it was up until the French Open in the end of May that she was finally able to string some wins together. Sofia is only 2-3 at Wimbledon from 3 attempts, but 13-6 overall with an astonishing +70.4% because of her 2 runs in Mallorca in consecutive weeks in which she went absolutely nuts defeating a plethora of quality players as an underdog. She hasn’t been able to demonstrate that Grass form elsewhere though, but is an interesting player to look for in the first rounds and then basically decide if you could ride the wave with her.

Liudmilla Samsonova is an certified dark horse in this part of the draw. The Russian who received the last wild card on the final day before the qualifying was due to start, was relentless in Berlin just 2 weeks ago starting from qualies and going all the way to win the event. Most interesting is that after she made it to the main draw , the rest 5 wins came versus players inside top 30 of the Rankings while of course being an underdog in 4 of the 5 matches in a range from +130 to +230. With those 7 wins she now has a 12-3 grass court record with +68.9% ROI. Those numbers will go back to earth in time of course but she surely is someone to look for this week or maybe two as she is fearless loves the conditions and isn’t bothered to turn around matches after negative starts.

Samsonova’s progress is halted by Jessica Pegula and Petra Kvitova with especially the Czech being a tough one to beat on that particular surface. Wimbledon champion in 2012 and 2014 Kvtiova and she has not been able to replicate anywhere near those achievements and has not passed the 4th round of the competition since. All 5 losses after her last title have come from players bellow her in rankings and Petra being a huge favorite to advance.

Final Prediction: Petra Kvitova vs. Madison Keys

Fourth Quarter  

Despite her 7th seed here, the French open champion from last year, Iga Swiatek knows that she has much more to improve in order to compete with the best on the green surface.

"Even though I am, like, seventh seed, I don't give myself more pressure because I know that I don't have experience. I just try to learn as much as possible. I'm just aware that I haven't been practicing on grass for a long time because I played finals of doubles at Roland Garros. It is important part of the season, but it is more important for me to learn and not to get any, like, huge results because I think the work that I'm going to do here is going to give effects in a few years. Yeah, you just need experience on grass basically."

21st seed Ons Jabuer won Birmingham 2 weeks ago and was stopped by eventual champion Jelena Ostapenko in Eastbourne the following week, but the Tunisian looked well despite not winning against the Latvian from a set and a break up. She is strike first ask questions later type of player which brings lot of winners and unforced errors along the way but I do think she has a strong statement to come up with a run here as this 6-6 record in London as to change for the better.

After winning the title in 2017 Garbine Muguruza has failed to win 2 matches in a row and her preparation wasn’t good losing in the 3rd round in Berlin 2 weeks ago to Aliza Cornet while being a -600 favorite.

Is this finally the Grand Slam where we could see Aryna Sabalenka make a splash and get through at least the 4th round in such high tier competition? Will have to see to find out, but she has always been in good form, her ranking matching her excellent play on various surfaces and now with both Osaka and Halep not playing she is the no.2 seed with lot of gain as she could overtake both when the new rankings get released after these 2 weeks.

But how to trust someone who is just 4-3 on such event and 18-13 overall on Grass with inflated ROI of +22.9% due to her only run in Eastbourne in 2018. She could face trouble early on with Alexandrova in 3rd round and then maybe Rybakina, so I would still avoid betting on her if she’s not up to speed with the early less ranked competition.

Final Prediction: Ons Jabeur vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Picks

Jelena Ostapenko has been in such a groove minimizing her double faults and reckless unforced errors while mixing up ger game even more with some slices here and there and I just have to take her to win the 1st quarter at +1100. 

Petra Kvitova to win the 3rd quarter at +375 and Ons Jabeur to win the 4th quarter at +850 seems like the most value bets I could think of with Ostapenko as an outright winner at +3300 or at least to reach the final +1800 at as well.

   

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