Serie A Predictions For Matchday 38
Our predictions for this week's top Serie A matches
Atalanta vs Inter Milan
Atalanta and Inter Milan will collide Saturday with a clear goal in their minds -- finishing the season in second place of the standings. Both clubs enter this matchup with a good run of form, though -- Atalanta are undefeated in their last 17 league games (W13, D4), while Inter Milan have gone seven league contests without a loss (W4, D3). As if that wasn’t enough, these two sides are separated by just one point heading into the season finale.
If there’s one thing that rarely lacks in Atalanta’s games, that’s goals -- their matches have hit the over (more than 2.5 total goals) 27 times, and they are just two goals shy of reaching the 100-goal plateau, which is surely in the players’ minds. Inter, on the other hand, have seen an average of 3.0 total goals per game in their ongoing undefeated streak. Based on what’s at stake for both clubs, this game should easily hit the over.
Juventus vs AS Roma
Juventus have already won the Serie A title for the ninth straight season and one would think they have nothing to play, but that is not the case. They are currently undefeated at home and will aim to finish that way, something they have accomplished in two of the last three Serie A seasons. Meanwhile, Roma are in fifth place and have already secured a UEFA Europa League spot for the 2020-21 season, and can’t move from that position.
Roma have been one of the hottest teams in the league of late, though, registering a league-best 13 points over their last five league matches. They’re also on a three-game winning streak, so they will surely give Juventus a run for their money. However, The Old Lady are just too good at home to end the campaign with a slip. Juventus should earn the win here in a fixture that might end up being a high-scoring affair -- their two previous meetings in this calendar year have produced over 2.5 total goals.
Sassuolo vs Udinese
Sassuolo are coming off a 5-0 win in their previous Serie A match, although that has been their lone win in their last five league contests (W1, D2, L2). Meanwhile, Udinese have won two of their last three games and have gone W2, D1, L2 in their last five matches. Both sides are sitting in the middle of the standings so there’s not much to play but their honor. The real value in this fixture, however, lies on what both sides can do in front of goal.
Sassuolo average a league-high 4.22 total goals per home match, while Udinese have seen under 2.5 total goals in six of their last eight away matches, and their average of 2.4 total goals per fixture ranks dead last in the league. This will be a clash of styles, although the offense should thump the defense in this particular case. Sassuolo are a far better team, and shouldn’t have major problems to end the season with a win over Udinese while hitting the over. For what it's worth, Sassuolo have seen over 2.5 total goals in all but one of their home matches this season.
Inter Milan (22-10-4, 2nd) vs. Napoli (17-8-11, 7th)
Inter Milan have lost just once in their last 14 home Serie A matches since the end of the October international break (W7, D6, L1), and they arrive into this matchup riding a six-game undefeated streak in league play (W3, D3). This game could have massive implications, as they sit in second place but might fall to fourth with a loss and other results going against them. The same can be said about Napoli, though. The Partenopei side are in seventh place and sits outside the UEFA Europa League qualifying zone with two games left. Winning here and wait for a Milan draw/loss is pivotal for their chances.
Napoli have cracked under pressure this season, however, and they enter this matchup having won just two of their last five Serie A contests (W2, D2, L1). They have also won only one of their previous four away games (W1, D1, L2), while Inter have gone W2, D2, L1 in their last five matches at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. It will be a tight game, but the home-field advantage and recent form will tip the scales towards Inter. The hosts are expected to leave the three points at home.
Lazio (23-6-7, 4th) vs. Brescia (6-6-24, 19th)
Lazio have been very inconsistent over the last few weeks, but they bounced back admirably by earning a huge 5-1 win over Verona on the road. They enter this match in a two-game winning run, but they’ve been very uneven in their last five games (W2, D1, L2). Brescia got relegated following last weekend’s results and have not been playing well in recent weeks, winning just one of their previous five Serie A matches (W1, L4). They don’t have anything to play for ahead of this contest, though, which makes them extremely dangerous for Lazio. The hosts are still hopeful of finishing in the Top 2.
If there is one thing that has been ever-present in Lazio’s matches, that’s goals -- eight of their last ten league matches since the restart has seen both sides scoring at least once. The same can be said about Brescia’s recent games - that outcome has happened in their last four matches. Lazio are heavy favorites and shouldn’t have problems to win against a struggling Brescia, but this match could easily end with both teams scoring as well given their recent performances.
AS Roma (19-7-10, 5th) vs. Torino (11-6-19, 16th)
Roma will play a pivotal match Thursday against Torino -- a win here would clinch them a spot in the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League, but a loss would leave them in a tough place. Torino do not have anything to play for, as their recent two-game undefeated streak (D2) cleared them away from potential relegation danger. They have won just once in their last five Serie A contests (W1, D2, L2), though, so their recent form has been subpar at best.
Each of Roma’s last five matches has witnessed over 2.5 goals, and the Stadio Olimpico outfit has scored at least twice in each of those contests. The same outcome has happened in just two of Torino’s last five games -- including none of the past three -- but Roma are widely expected to dominate here. They should win by a sizable margin.
AC Milan (17-8-10, 6th) vs Atalanta (22-8-5)
AC Milan enter this game in a strong run of form, going undefeated in their last 10 matches in all competitions while winning each of their last three contests. Atalanta, on the other hand, are in second place and have not tasted defeat in each of their last 18 matches across all competitions, winning 15 of those games. Milan are in sixth place and a win could give them a huge boost in the race to clinch a spot in next season’s UEFA Europa League.
Atalanta will end the season as one of the top-scoring teams in Serie A history, but it’s fair to mention they have scored under 1.5 goals as a team in each of their last two matches. AC Milan, on the other hand, are enjoying their best scoring run of the 2019-20 campaign with over 1.5 goals in each of their last nine league matches. This game could easily end up with both teams scoring, and it wouldn’t be a shocker if it also ends with three or more total goals.
Napoli (16-8-11, 7th) vs Sassuolo (13-9-13, 8th)
Napoli are in seventh place with 56 points, and they have their backs against the wall since they sit three points behind AC Milan -- the Rossoneri side currently own the final spot that earns a spot in the UEFA Europa League. Putting things simple - they must win their final games and wait for Milan to drop points if they want to play in Europe in the 2020-21 campaign. As for Sassuolo, they are in 8th place and have nothing to play for, but they are coming into this game in an excellent run of form -- they have lost just once in their last nine league games (W4, D4, L1).
Given both sides have been playing well, this one might go either way. However, if we look a bit deeper, we can see Napoli have the edge. They are playing at home - where they are undefeated in their last eight contests in all competitions - and have won three of their last four. Meanwhile, Sassuolo are winless in the last three (D2, L1) and have also struggled against Napoli. The Partenopoei side is undefeated in their last nine against Sassuolo in all competitions (W5, D4). Expect them to extend that streak with another win.
AS Roma (18-7-10, 5th) vs Fiorentina (10-13-12, 10th)
AS Roma needed a huge win over SPAL to keep their Europa League chances alive, and they certainly delivered with a massive 6-1 victory over an already-relegated squad. Roma has gone W4, D1 in their last five matches, and it seems their three-game losing run is on the rearview. Fiorentina, on the other hand, are also undefeated in their last five Serie A matches but their run actually extends to six contests without a loss (W3, D3). They have nothing to play but their honor, though, as they have no chance to reach the UEFA Europa League already.
Motivation could be a big factor in this one. Roma not only have the edge of playing at home, but they also know they need the three points to get closer to the UEFA Europa League. Fiorentina will make things tough for them, but their lack of motivation might work against them. Expect Roma to secure the three points at Stadio Olimpico, as they have posted a strong W9, D4, L5 record at home in 2019/20.
Sassuolo (13-9-12, 8th) vs AC Milan (16-8-10, 7th)
Tuesday July 21st, 3:45pm ET
Both Sassuolo and AC Milan are vying for a spot in the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League. The hosts are in eighth place, while Milan are in seventh but hold an eight-point lead over their rivals in this match. This seems like a make-or-break game in the Europa League race. Sassuolo arrive into this game riding an eight-game undefeated streak (W4, D4), but Milan have not been too shabby, either -- they have avoided defeat in each of their last eight games since the restart (W6, D2). Both teams have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks as well, and the numbers back that up.
If there’s one thing that hasn’t been missing in Sassuolo’s recent matches, that’s goals -- they have scored at least thrice in five of their last eight league contests, and every one of those contests also produced over 3.5 total goals. Milan have also been scoring at a high rate, though, netting at least twice in each of their last six wins while also netting three or more times in five of those wins. By all accounts, this game seems bound to finish as a goal fest even if Milan should be treated as favorites to get the three points.
Parma (11-7-16, 14th) vs Napoli (16-8-10, 6th)
Wednesday July 22nd, 1:30pm ET
Parma are in 14th place of the standings but sit 11 points above the red zone with only four matches left in the schedule, so a draw would be enough to save them from relegation for good. Napoli have bigger ambitions on their radar, though -- they sit in sixth place with 56 points and are just two points behind AS Roma in the race for fifth place. A spot in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League might be too much to ask, but they are a strong bet to secure a EL berth.
Both Parma and Napoli should have decent levels of motivation ahead of this contest, as both could take massive steps towards their goals with a win here. Recent form should give Napoli the edge, though, as they’ve been one of the top sides in the Serie A since the restart and arrive into this matchup undefeated in their last five games (W3, D2). To put things into perspective, Parma have gone D1, L4 over that same five-game stretch. Despite playing on the road, Napoli shouldn’t have major issues to secure the three points in this matchup.
Inter Milan (21-9-4, 2nd) vs Fiorentina (10-12-12, 12th)
Wednesday July 22nd, 3:45pm ET
Inter Milan are coming off a disappointing 2-2 draw at AS Roma the last time out, and they have their backs against the wall in this matchup -- they are forced to win all their four remaining games and wait for some help from Juventus if they want to have a shot at the title race, though that seems unlikely. Fiorentina shouldn’t have much to play for -- they can’t relegated but don’t have a shot at reaching the UEFA Europa League positions, either. It has been another indifferent year for the Viola side.
That said, Fiorentina enter this game on a five-game undefeated streak (W3, D2), including back-to-back wins. Inter have not lost in their last four league outings (W2, D2) and if one thing has highlighted from their matches, it’s the fact each of Inter’s last five contests have produced three or more total goals. They are likely to win here based on their motivation alone, but this game could easily feature at least three goals once again. Fiorentina are not going to make things easier for them.
Brescia (5-6-22, 19th) vs SPAL (5-4-24, 20th)
Sunday July 19th, 1:30pm ET
Brescia and Spal face each other Sunday in what promises to be a heated battle on the relegation standings. Spal are 11 points away from safety and Brescia are nine points away from leaving the red zone. Therefore, both clubs are in dire need of a win to keep their chances of staying in the Serie A ahead of the 2020-21 season -- even if it’s just for a few more days.
Brescia enter this matchup in a three-game losing streak, while Spal have dropped each of their last four contests. Getting a win here seems pivotal for both clubs and, given their needs, this matchup could very well end up being a back-and-forth contest. If we also consider each side has seen four of their last five games end with over 2.5 total goals scored, and a similar outcome could easily be expected given what’s at stake for both sides in the standings. We might be in line for a goal-filled matchup at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
AS Roma (17-6-10, 5th) vs Inter Milan (21-8-4, 2nd)
Sunday July 19th, 3:45pm ET
Both AS Roma and Inter Milan have a lot of stake ahead of this game. The hosts are in fifth place with 57 points and while reaching the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League might be a stretch for them given the 12-point differential with Lazio, they must win to move closer towards earning a UEFA Europa League berth. Meanwhile, Inter sit in second place and have reduced the gap with Juventus to just six points following The Old Lady’s ongoing three-game winless streak. Inter could pull closer to just three points with a win here.
Inter Milan might be playing on the road, but they’re clearly on the rise and enter this matchup on a three-game undefeated streak (W2, D1). AS Roma lacked consistency over their first matches of the restart, but they seem to be turning things around as they have now won three straight league matches. This match could turn out to go either way, but Inter are beginning to find their stride and must win here to put pressure on Juventus ahead of what promises to be a thrilling title race. That should be enough motivation for Inter to get the three points from Stadio Olimpico. For what is worth, Antonio Conte’s men are riding a five-game undefeated streak against Roma (W1, D4).
Juventus (24-5-4, 1st) vs Lazio (21-6-6, 4th)
Monday July 20th, 3:45pm ET
Juventus and Lazio collide Monday in what’s going to be our “Game of the Week”, and this matchup could have huge title implications given where both sides sit in the standings. Juventus are leading the league with 77 points but enter this game in a three-game winless streak (D2, L1). They own a six-point gap over Inter Milan, but that gap could shrink to three points depending on what happens during the weekend. On the other hand, Lazio are in fourth place with 69 points.
The Rome-based squad are eight points behind Juventus in the standings with only five games left -- their title chances might be over, but that doesn’t mean they should be considered an easy opponent given their recent form. Lazio will manage to keep this game close and while Juventus are favorites, this game could turn out to be tighter than expected. That doesn’t mean there won’t be goals, though -- the last three H2H meetings have featured three or more goals, and both sides are among the most prolific sides in the league. This one will end up with over 2.5 total goals.
Atalanta (20-7-5, 4th) vs Brescia (5-6-21, 19th)
Tuesday July 14th, 3:45pm ET
Atalanta are coming off a 2-2 draw against Juventus and while that streak snapped their 11-game winning run in all competitions, it extended their undefeated run to 15 contests between Serie A and the UEFA Champions League. That impressive form should be enough reason to list them as favorites ahead of their MD33 contest against a Brescia side that remains threatened with relegation with only five games left in the schedule.
Atalanta are massive favorites to earn the win here, but they will undoubtedly attempt to deliver another impressive scoring performance. “La Dea” have scored at least two goals in all but one of their matches during that run, and it seems they’re bound to deliver another dominant effort considering they’ll meet against a Brescia side that has conceded exactly three goals in each of their defeats since the league restarted last month. To lean things even more in Atalanta’s favor, Brescia average over 2.0 goals conceded per away fixture this season. This game could easily hit the over based on Atalanta’s scoring ability alone.
AC Milan (14-8-10, 7th) vs Parma (11-7-14, 12th)
Wednesday July 15th, 1:30pm ET
AC Milan are coming off a 2-2 draw against Napoli the last time out and remain one of the most entertaining side in the Serie A. Since the league resumed last month, Il Rossonero are yet to lose a single game (W4, D2) and have scored at least two goals in every game. They will take on Parma in this match, and the visitors have been extremely inconsistent. They’ve gained just five points of their last 21 available, and they arrive into this game riding a five-game winless streak (D1, L4).
Each of Parma’s last six games have featured over 2.5 goals and the same thing has happened in Milan’s last seven Serie A games. Goals are bound to arrive into this matchup one way or another, but Milan should also gain decent value on their potential win. They’ve been a far better side of late and should reflect that earning the three points at Stadio San Siro. Winning here could be pivotal for their chances of playing in the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League.
Sassuolo (13-7-12, 8th) vs Juventus (24-4-4, 1st)
Wednesday July 15th, 3:45pm ET
Juventus are coming off a 2-2 draw against Atalanta last week, but they took advantage of Lazio’s third straight defeat to create an eight-point gap at the top of the standings. As things stand now, all signs point towards The Old Lady winning yet another Serie A title. Sassuolo, on the other hand, secured a huge 2-1 win at Lazio the last time out and enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak. They have an outside chance to play in the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League next season.
Juventus are favorites and could end up winning here, but they won’t have an easy time here. The last five Sassuolo matches have featured 4.4 goals on average, while Juventus currently own the league’s third-best attack with 67 goals scored. Both sides can find the back of the net, and that’s a reasonable thing to expect in this matchup. Don’t be surprised if this contest ends up with over 2.5 goals or with both sides finding the back of the net.
Lazio (25-5-5, 2nd) vs Sassuolo (12-7-12, 8th)
Saturday July 11th, 11:15am ET
Lazio entered the restart of the 2019-20 Serie A season with a slim chance to fight for the title, but they have dropped three of their five games since then (W2, L3) and that vanished away their chances of fighting with Juventus to win their first league crown since 2000. Sassuolo might be riding an opposite run of form, as they have dropped just one of their last six league contests (W3, D2, L1) and enter this contest in a three-game winning run. They sit in eighth place of the standings with 43 points and have an outside chance at battling for a 2020-21 UEFA Europa League berth.
Lazio might be going through a poor run of form, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re a very entertaining team -- each of their five games since the Serie A resumed has produced at least three total goals and, to make things even better, both sides have hit the back of the net four times. As if that wasn’t enough, a whooping 62.5% of their Serie A home matches have registered at least two goals before half time. Those same tendencies can be applied to Sassuolo, since their six games following the restart have produced over 2.5 goals and five featured at least four total goals. With this in mind, this game could easily become a goalfest.
Juventus (24-3-4, 1st) vs Atalanta (20-6-5, 3rd)
Saturday July 11th, 3:45pm ET
Perhaps two of the best, more attacking-minded and more entertaining teams will collide Saturday at Allianz Stadium -- this will also be our “Game of the Week” in Matchday 32 of the Serie A. Juventus might be coming off a disappointing 4-2 loss to AC Milan, but they still sit comfortable at the top of the standings with 75 points, seven ahead of the second-placed team, Lazio. Atalanta, on the other hand, are the team with best form over the last five matches (won them all) and are third with 66 points. In fact, they enter this matchup riding a nine-game winning streak.
One thing that is almost assured every time Atalanta step on the pitch is that there will be goals, one way or another. However, each of their last three games has ended with under 2.5 goals. That might be likely once again against a Juventus team that has won 14 of their 15 Serie A home matches this season but, if there’s one team that can create havoc against a top defense, that’s Atalanta -- they average 2.74 goals scored per league match. In what’s going to be a clash of styles, this one might end up being a low-scoring affair. Juventus’ defense will be too much for Atalanta’s attacking unit.
Napoli (15-6-10, 6th) vs AC Milan (14-7-10, 7th)
Sunday July 12th, 3:45pm ET
Napoli enter this game in a good run of form, as they have won their last two matches and four of their last five (W4, L1). Milan, however, can’t be considered otherwise based on what they’ve done of late -- they are undefeated in their last five league outings (W4, D1) and are coming off back-to-back wins over Lazio and Juventus, the top two teams in the standings, scoring seven times against them.
Napoli might have won their last three home matches, but there’s no question they’ve been disappointing at home in 2019-20 -- they’ve posted a W7, D2, L6 mark at Stadio San Paolo. Milan are W8, D2, L6 away from home, but they are undefeated in their past four fixtures away from Stadio San Siro (W2, D2), scoring at least two goals in the last three. Milan are riding their best form of the season and should have a decent shot at pulling the upset here against a Napoli side that hasn’t been able to show much consistency despite their good form of late.
AC Milan (13-7-10, 7th) vs Juventus (24-3-3, 1st)
Tuesday July 7th, 3:45pm ET, VIEW GAME DETAILS
The derby between AC Milan and Juventus is one of the biggest in the Serie A and, therefore, it should be considered our “Game of the Week” for the midweek slate. The Old Lady are coming off a strong 4-1 win over local rivals Torino and took a huge step towards winning the league title, especially after Milan defeated Lazio by a convincing 3-0 away win on Saturday. Lazio own a seven-point lead at the top, while Milan are just two points away from reaching a 2020-21 UEFA Europa League berth.
On paper, this could be an open game since both teams have a lot to play for. However, there are some noticeable trends when we look at the recent H2H history between these two Serie A giants. Three of the last four games since the restart have produced over 2.5 goals -- for both sides -- but each of the last three H2H meetings in all competitions have featured under 2.5 total goals. If we add into the mix the fact that both sides could certainly use the three points -- especially Milan -- then it wouldn’t be the worst idea to see this game hitting the over. Both sides have shown a tendency to do that of late.
Roma (14-6-10, 5th) vs Parma (11-6-13, 12th)
Wednesday July 8th, 3:45pm ET, VIEW GAME DETAILS
Roma are coming off a 2-1 loss against Napoli the last time out and that result extended their losing streak to three games, complicating their chances of reaching a 2020-21 UEFA Europa League berth even further. Parma, on the other hand, suffered a 2-1 loss against Fiorentina and also pushed their losing streak to three games. Undoubtedly, both teams are in dire need of three points here.
Roma’s most recent games have been filled with goals. Their last 10 Serie A games have produced over 1.5 total goals and seven of those have reached the 2.5 mark. As if that wasn’t enough, seven of those have also witnessed both teams scoring. Parma’s games have shown a similar tendency, with four straight matches eclipsing the 2.5-goal mark and the last five seeing both teams scoring. Expect a goal fest at Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday.
Verona (11-9-10, 8th) vs Inter Milan (19-7-4, 3rd)
Thursday July 9th, 3:45pm ET, VIEW GAME DETAILS
Verona were one of the league’s biggest surprises before play got suspended in mid-March, and it’s safe to say they haven’t been able to produce the same performances over the last few weeks -- they have posted a W2, D1, L2 mark since the restart and have fallen to eighth place in the standings. Inter Milan have been the complete opposite and are four points away from Lazio in the battle for second place, although they’re also coming off a loss the last time out -- that result ended a four-game undefeated streak (W3, D1) for Antonio Conte’s men.
Inter’s attacking power can’t be taken for granted, though, as they own the league’s joint-third-best attack with 63 goals scored, while Verona have only conceded 36 goals -- the best mark in the league outside of the Top 3. Given the fact this matchup will feature two of the league’s four best defenses, and considering Verona have conceded just 17 goals in 15 home matches this term, this game might very well finish with very few goals once it’s all said and done.
Juventus (23-3-3, 1st) vs Torino (9-4-16, 13th)
Saturday July 4th, 11:15pm ET
Another season, another dominant Juventus campaign. The Old Lady have won 23 of their 29 Serie A matches this season (W23, D3, L3) and have won each of their last six league outings ahead of this derby match against a struggling Torino unit. The visitors have gone W1, D1, L3 in their last five games and approach this contest on a two-game losing streak. To make things even more complicated, Torino are just six points above the red zone so it’s not as if they can let the three points slip away.
Juventus are massive favorites ahead of this match, but the real value ahead of this contest might lie elsewhere. It’s worth noting three of Juventus’ last five matches have produced under 2.5 goals, and the same thing has happened in each of the last five H2H meetings between these two clubs in all competitions. If we add into the mix that both clubs have a tendency of scoring late goals, then this one could be decided late and by a slim margin.
Lazio (21-5-3, 2nd) vs AC Milan (12-7-10, 7th)
Saturday July 4th, 3:15pm ET
Lazio remain alive in the title race, but they have lost some ground after their loss to Atalanta on June 24th. The Rome-based side remain in second place just four points behind Juventus, however, so getting a win here will be mandatory for their title chances. AC Milan won’t represent an easy opponent, though. They might be in seventh place of the standings but are coming off three wins in their last four contests.
Lazio seem to have a clear edge ahead of this contest, though. They are undefeated at home this season and have won 10 of their last 11 at home -- W10, D1 -- while averaging 2.82 goals per home fixture in that span. They have also won by at least two goals in nine of their 12 home wins this term. Milan have been involved in high-scoring affairs of late -- three of their last four games have ended with over 2.5 goals -- but they have also conceded 22 goals in only 15 away matches. Lazio’s scoring power will be too much for the Rossoneri and I expect them to earn the three points here.
Parma (11-6-12, 10th) vs Fiorentina (7-10-12, 14th)
Sunday July 5th, 1:30pm ET
Both Parma and Fiorentina are coming off two straight defeats in Serie A play and, if we include each team’s last five games into the mix, then we can see they have combined for five losses and just one win (W1, D4, L5). Parma have also lost each of their last three home matches, while Fiorentina have registered just one win in their last four away contests (W1, D1, L2). It’s safe to say neither side arrives into this matchup with a lot of confidence.
Neither of these two sides have boasted an impressive attacking unit in 2019/20. Parma have scored 40 goals in 29 matches, while Fiorentina have found the back of the net just 35 goals -- both clubs have scored well under 1.5 goals per contest. Plus, the last four matches between these two sides have featured under 2.5 goals. Based on their offensive struggles, this game could go either way but one thing is certain -- it might not end in a goalfest, but quite the opposite.
(Genoa 6-8-14, 17th) vs. Juventus (22-3-3, 1st)
Tuesday June 30th, 3:45pm EST, VIEW GAME PAGE
Genoa have not been playing very well over their last few matches, as they are coming off two games without a win and sit just one point above the relegation zone. Juventus are at the opposite end of the spectrum, coming off five straight league wins and occupying the top spot in the standings.
The Old Lady are massive favorites ahead of this matchup and should be treated as such -- the moneyline certainly backs them up to get a comfortable win. However, seven of their last 10 matches in all competitions have produced under 2.5 goals, and that has also happened in four of their last five away games overall. Expect this game to end as a low-scoring affair, especially if we consider the fact that Genoa average just 1.15 goals scored per home match in 2019/20.
Sassuolo (9-7-12, 12th) vs. Fiorentina (7-10-11, 14th)
Wednesday July 1st, 3:45pm EST, VIEW GAME PAGE
Sassuolo and Fiorentina have been struggling of late. Sitting 12th and 13th in the standings, respectively, both clubs have won just once in their last five league matches. Sassuolo are W1, D2, L2 during that stretch, while Fiorentina have gone W1, D3, L1 during that same span. However, this could be one of the most entertaining games of Matchday 29.
Sassuolo have the edge of playing at home, where they average over 2.0 goals scored per match, but the high scoring totals have defined their season. Their league matches average 3.46 total goals -- the second-best mark in the Serie A behind Atalanta. If we couple that with the fact that Fiorentina have conceded 1.5 goals per away match this season, then this contest seems bound to feature plenty of goals, making it a strong bet to hit the over.
Atalanta (17-6-5, 4th) vs. Napoli (13-6-9, 6th)
Thursday July 2nd, 1:30pm EST, VIEW GAME PAGE
No team in the Serie A has been more entertaining than Atalanta, as they currently average 2.85 goals scored as a team per league fixture. That high-powered attack ranks as the best in the league and the results have backed their approach -- they enter this game on an eight-game winning streak in all competitions. Don’t rule out Napoli from pulling an upset, though -- they have won each of their last five Serie A games ahead of this one and are clearly on the rise entering the stretch run of the season.
Each of Atalanta’s last six matches in all competitions has produced over 4.5 total goals and, in fact, their league matches average an impressive 4.25 total goals per match -- easily the top mark in the league. Napoli’s games average a healthy 2.96 total goals per game as well, so both sides are adept at seeing action in their league contests. That trend should continue here once again.
Lazio (19-5-3, 2nd) vs Fiorentina (7-10-10, 14th)
Lazio suffered a 3-2 loss at Atalanta the last time out -- their first defeat since Sept 25 -- but the Rome-based side continued to show their goal scoring ability -- they have found the back of the net at least twice in each of their last four Serie A contests (W3, L1). Fiorentina, on the other hand, have not scored more than one goal in four of their last five league matches and each of their last three Serie A contests have featured under 2.5 goals.
Fiorentina have the ability to keep things close, but they average close to 1.5 goals conceded per away fixture -- that doesn’t bode well for their chances of pulling an upset considering Lazio average 2.78 goals scored at home while being undefeated in 14 matches (W11, D3). Fiorentina will probably play defensive, but Lazio have enough firepower to run away with this game and could easily hit the over when it comes to total goals.
AC Milan (11-6-10, 7th) vs AS Roma (14-6-7, 5th)
AC Milan secured a huge 4-1 away win over Lecce this past Monday and now they are undefeated in three of their last four contests (W2, D1, L1). They remain within distance of a potential 2019-20 UEFA Europa League berth but, in order to progress in the standings, they must improve at home where they own a W4, D5, L4 mark. Roma, on the other hand, are on a two-game winning streak following their 2-1 victory against Sampdoria and sit in fifth place of the standings. They have looked quite solid on the road, posting a W7, D3, L3 mark in 13 matches -- the sixth-best in the league.
If we look at the recent H2H meetings, we can see matches between AC Milan and AS Roma have not been characterized by a heavy dose of goals in recent years -- three of the last five have finished with under 2.5 goals, and seven of the last nine have produced under 3.5 total goals. Likewise, three of Milan’s last four games at San Siro in all competitions have not reached that three-goal plateau. Another low-scoring match could be on the cards here given Milan’s struggles in the final third.
Sassuolo (9-6-12, 12th) vs Verona (10-8-9, 9th)
Sassuolo are coming off a 3-3 draw against Inter Milan the last time out and have gone winless in their last two matches (D1, L1). Verona have not fared much better, though, as they lost against Napoli in their previous contest and have taken the three points just once in their last four league fixtures. That said, the visitors are six points above the hosts entering Round 28 and own a better shot at reaching the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League next season.
There are a few notable trends if we look at the recent meetings between these two clubs. Each of the last five H2H meetings have ended with under 2.5 goals, each of the last four contests during that stretch have seen just one side scoring, and the last three have ended with an away victory. On paper, that seems to favor Verona who have been the better side of the two by a wide margin this season. Even though Sassuolo are known for their attacking ability, they often leave too many spaces defensively and Verona can take advantage of that. Verona have also been far better defensively -- they own the best back-line in the Serie A outside of the Top 3 sides. With that in mind, going with the away team in this one seems like a strong choice.
The Serie A continues Monday with Matchday 27 after the league played the four pending matches over the weekend, and BetQL is here to guide you to a few winners. Here you will find all our Serie A predictions for the rest of the season. We will be updating this page every week with new Serie A predictions on the best games of the week. This week, the BetQL "Game of the Week" is Atalanta vs Lazio. Keep reading below to see our prediction on that game, as well as the other top matches of the upcoming slate.
Lecce (6-7-13) vs. AC Milan (10-6-10)
Monday June 22nd, 1:30pm EST, VIEW GAME PAGE
Lecce have taken points out of three of their last four home matches, so they shouldn’t be overlooked in this contest despite the fact they sit in the 18th place of the standings (25 pts). AC Milan, on the other hand, are in seventh place with 36 points, but are coming off just one win in five and will also be missing Zlatan Ibrahimovic due to injury.
Milan have the lowest scoring figure among the Top 13 sides in the standings with only 26 goals (1.07 per game), while Lecce feature the best attack among the last eighth-placed teams (34 goals, 1.30 per contest). Lecce are at home as well, something that could bode well for them since Milan have won just six of 13 away matches this term (6-1-6). Go with the hosts in this one.
Inter Milan (17-6-3) vs Sassuolo (9-5-12)
Wednesday June 24th, 1:30pm EST, VIEW GAME PAGE
Inter Milan were coming off back-to-back losses to Lazio and Juventus, scoring just once across those two contests, although they bounced back with a 2-1 win over Sampdoria on Sunday . They still sit in third place of the standings (57 pts) but are slipping away from the title race. They will host Sassuolo (11th), a team that has won three of their last five contests.
Despite both team’s recent trends, this could easily end up being a low-scoring affair. Sassuolo average just 1.07 goals scored per away contest this season, while Inter have scored a much-more-respectable 2.00 goals per home tilt. Sassuolo might not pose much of a threat, but Inter are not expected to dominate, either. They could easily win, but the match likely won’t feature over 2.5 total goals.
Atalanta (15-6-5) vs Lazio (19-5-2)
Wednesday June 24th, 3:45pm EST, VIEW GAME PAGE
Atalanta (4th, 51 pts) and Lazio (2nd, 62 pts) have the top two attacks in the league, at 74 and 60 goals scored, respectively. Both teams also enter this matchup having taken 13 of their last 15 points available while winning each of their last four contests. Based on the scoring ability of both sides, if there’s one thing that will undoubtedly occur, is that both teams should be able to find the back of the net.
Looking a bit deeper, however, the smart money could be on Lazio’s side. Atalanta have won just seven of their 13 home matches this season (7-2-4), while Lazio have lost just twice on the road this term (8-2-2). Lazio are also riding an impressive 23-match undefeated streak in the league. The visitors should come away with the three points in what’s likely to be a high-scoring contest.