The 2022 Stanley Cup Final is here, and we have two of the most dominant teams in hockey squaring off in what should be an instant classic. The Tampa Bay Lightning have won the Cup the previous two years, and they will be trying to win three straight championships, something that hasn't been done in the NHL since the New York Islanders' run of four straight from 1980-83. The Colorado Avalanche have been and continue to be the favorite to win it all, though.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NHL model has gone 82-56 (59%) on all 2-star and higher NHL picks in the past 30 days for a total return of $1055 on $100 bets. The NHL model simulated each game 10,000 times to get the most accurate outcomes and best bets. So, let's use the technology that we have at our fingertips and win some stone-cold cash.
Despite the past brilliance of the Lightning in the Cup Final, our model absolutely loves the Avalanche to do their job as the favorite and win the Stanley Cup. Our model gives Colorado a 72.8% chance to win the series, while Tampa Bay is given just a 27.2% chance to three-peat. In fact, our model gives the highest probability of the Avalanche winning in five games, at 23.1%.
There's no question that Colorado is the most talented team in hockey, and they have dominated their playoff series to date. Tampa Bay will be their biggest challenge yet, and what the Lightning have on their side is experience. They have been there and done that multiple times, while the Avalanche have little to no experience on their team playing in a Cup Final. It will be interesting to see if that plays a factor in this series as it moves forward, but without further ado, let us get into the top 5 best bets that the model likes in this sure-to-be-awesome series.
Avalanche -1.5 Games (+110, DraftKings)
DK Odds 47.6%, BetQL Projection 54.2%, Difference 6.6%
Avalanche -2.5 Games (+220, DraftKings)
DK Odds 31.3%, BetQL Projection 35.6%, Difference 4.3%
Total Games: 5 (+260, DraftKings)
DK Odds 27.8%, BetQL Projection 28.3%, Difference 0.5%
Avalanche Win 4-1 (+400, DraftKings)
DK Odds 20%, BetQL Projection 23.1%, Difference 3.1%
Avalanche Win 4-0 (+800, DraftKings)
DK Odds 11.1%, BetQL Projection 12.5%, Difference 1.4%
As you can clearly see, the model projects the Colorado Avalanche to get the job done, and in convincing fashion no less. You can get 8/1 odds on a Colorado sweep, which is a pretty good return, but it looks like our model really loves the Avalanche to win by at least two games. That difference in the number for Avalanche -1.5 is huge, as we think you should be laying money instead of getting plus value. That is our very best bet for the series. Tampa Bay is obviously talented and battle-hardened, but it is extremely difficult to win three straight championships. The Avalanche are simply better than any competition they have faced so far in the playoffs, and the overall depth and supreme talent will shine through for Colorado in the end with a 4-2 series victory, per 10,000 simulations.
Be sure to check out all of our latest articles to get best bets every single day. I'll have the daily NHL Betting Playbook coming out every game day, which will give you all the trends, information and odds you'll need to place the most informed wager on each game of the series as it progresses. Hope to see you there!