Despite Being Favorites, Islanders Have Challenging Road Against Panthers

Here are the keys to New York defeating the Florida Panthers in their Qualifying Series

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  • At -122 on DraftKings, the New York Islanders are favored to defeat the Florida Panthers in the best-of-five Qualifying Series.

  • The Panthers averaged the sixth-most goals per contest, including the seventh-most shots on goal in the east.

  • The Islanders allowed the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.69) in the league, while the Panthers allowed the fifth-most goals per game (3.30).

  • At +4300, the odds are against New York to make a run and win the Stanley Cup. We project the Panthers to win this series in five games. Keep reading to find out what the Islanders need to do to win the series and the details behind our model's projection.

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Setting The Scene

The New York Islanders and the Florida Panthers will collide during the first round of the 2019-2020 NHL Playoffs. The Islanders seem to have the edge based on how they finished the regular-season, as they ended in seventh place with a .588 winning percentage. The Panthers, on the other hand, ended in 10th place after winning 56.5 percent of their games. Florida was one of many teams to benefit from the league’s 24-team playoff format. Otherwise, they would have been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Islanders might get the edge on paper based on their regular-season numbers, but they finished the campaign on a seven-game losing streak. Perhaps the (nearly) four-month hiatus allowed them to turn things around, but it’s clear they didn’t have a lot of momentum heading towards the stretch run of the season. Here are three things the Islanders need to do if they want to get past the Panthers in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

1. Slow Down Florida's Offense

This is a no-brainer issue that the Islanders must tackle. Despite finishing 10th in the Eastern Conference standings, the Panthers registered the sixth-best attack in the NHL with 228 goals, while averaging a seventh-best 32.7 shots per game. If we consider they only played 69 games, that translates to an average of 3.3 goals per contest, good for seventh in the league. Florida was one of the best offensive teams in the Eastern Conference, which equals poor news for the struggling Islanders blue line.

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2. Be Aggressive Late In Games

The Islanders averaged just 29.6 shots per game during the regular-season, the fourth-worst mark over the season. They topped only the Edmonton Oilers, Buffalo Sabres and the lowly Detroit Red Wings. That’s not good enough for a team that is looking to make a deep run in the playoffs, especially if we consider they will face a top offense. Taking advantage of the limited chances they might create is a must. That might not be the case, though, as the Islanders were one of only eight teams in the league that couldn’t reach the 190-goal plateau. They finished 24th in the power play department as well, scoring just 17.3 percent of the times where they had an advantage.

3. Continue Strong Defensive Play

If there’s one area where the Islanders own a marked advantage over the Panthers, it's on defense. New York allowed just 190 goals (2.69 per contest), good for seventh-best in the league and second-best in the conference behind the Columbus Blue Jackets. Florida, on the other hand, ranked fifth-worst in the league in goals conceded with 224 (3.30 per game). Defense wins championships, but in the case of the NHL, it also wins playoff games -- the postseason contests are far tighter than the regular-season battles, which favors the Islanders in a big way. A strong play from goaltender from Semyon Varlamov (who posted a .914 save percentage in 45 appearances this season) would also boost their chances.

Projection

Our model simulated this series 10,000 times and is giving the Islanders a 36.4% chance to win the series, but it's expected to be tight. The highest probability is a Panthers victory in five games (26.5%). New York has an 8.1% chance to win the series in a three-game sweep, a 13.5% chance to win the series in four games and a 14.9% chance to win the series in five games, according to our model. Therefore, our projection is a Panthers victory in five games.

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