Penguins Keys To Success In Qualifying Round Series Against Canadiens

• The Pittsburgh Penguins ended the regular-season with the fifth-best win percentage in the Eastern Conference.

• The Montreal Canadiens were 10 points out of the playoffs when the season was suspended. The Penguins took 2-of-3 games from the Canadiens this season.

• Pittsburgh is -210 to win the Qualifying Series and +1600 to win the Stanley Cup.

• We simulated this series 10,000 times and give the Penguins a 67.2% chance to win the series: 16.8% to win in a three-game sweep, 25.9% to win in four games and 24.5% to win in five games.

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Maintaining Regular-Season Momentum

The Pittsburgh Penguins are strong favorites to take down the Montreal Canadiens in the Qualifying Round series. This wouldn’t be an issue under normal circumstances, but there isn’t anything even remotely normal about the 2019-2020 NHL season. Pittsburgh finished the regular-season with the fifth-best winning percentage in the Eastern Conference (.623, good for seventh-best in the NHL). Meanwhile, the Canadiens were 10 points out of the playoffs with three teams ahead of them when the NHL season was paused on March 12th. It goes without saying that the Penguins are favorites, but they can’t take this five-game series for granted.

Let’s remember that the regular-season series between these two clubs ended 2-1 for Pittsburgh, with one of those wins coming after an overtime period. The Canadiens won the first game of the series (4-1) when the Penguins were relatively healthy, but the Penguins won 4-1 in the most recent meeting. Pittsburgh should be confident in achieving a positive result, but they can’t take their rivals for granted.

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Find A Way To Limit Canadiens Stars

This may be easier said than done. Carey Price is considered by his peers as the best goaltender in the league despite his .909 save percentage in 2019-20, which would actually rank as slightly below-average for the second time in his last three seasons. He is a few years removed from winning the Vezina Trophy in 2015 and might be beyond his prime, even if he's still viewed as a threat between the sticks. He will need to be at his best against a star-studded Penguins offense.

The same could be said about Shea Weber, who is the undisputed leader of this team after the departure of other veterans such as Nate Thompson, Marco Scandella and Ilya Kovalchuk at the trade deadline. Weber won’t change the series on his own, but he can certainly make things tough for the Penguins with his experience and grit. The fact that he finished the regular-season with 36 points (15 goals, 21 assists) in 65 games makes him an offensive threat as well. The Penguins must keep an eye on the 34-year-old blue-liner at all times.

Suspended Season Benefits Pittsburgh's Health

It’s hard to keep injuries in control, especially in a sport as physical as hockey. The Penguins desperately need to keep their star players as healthy as possible. Pittsburgh dealt with injuries all season long (most notably Sidney Crosby), but he wasn’t the only important player who missed time for the Penguins during the regular-season.

Crosby missed 28 games with a sports hernia, while Evgeni Malkin (14 games missed) and Patric Hornqvist (17 games missed) also faced considerable time on the sidelines. Jake Guentzel has not played since injuring his shoulder on December 30th and might be a bit rusty, but he can be a lethal addition to Pittsburgh's forward line. After all, he scored 40 goals last season and tallied 20 in 39 games this season.

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Simulation Results

We simulated this series 10,000 times and give the Penguins a 67.2% chance to win the series: 16.8% to win in a three-game sweep, 25.9% to win in four games and 24.5% to win in five games. Although we do expect that the Canadiens will win at least one game, our model fully expects the Pens to move on to the next round.

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