NHL Playoffs: Betting Playbook For Monday, May 23

NHL Betting Playbook for Monday

Monday's NHL trends are collected and ready to go for Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Let's take a look at what you should know before betting on the NHL postseason games. 

One trend to note is that the BetQL NHL model has gone 18-6 (75%) on 2-star and above NHL picks in the past 3 days for a total return of $744 on $100 bets, so you'll definitely want to know who the model is picking in these awesome second-round matchups. BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game!

This series is all but over after the Tampa Bay Lightning took a 3-0 lead by defeating the Florida Panthers for the third straight game. Tampa Bay will be looking to close the series out on home ice in Game 4, and send the team to their third straight Eastern Conference Finals. Florida will be looking to just preserve their season one more day and avoid the sweep. The Panthers won the President's Trophy this season, which goes to the team with the most points in the league at the end of the regular season. Unfortunately, it looks like their great campaign was in vein. They will need to pull off what would be the greatest comeback maybe ever, against the defending champions, to save their efforts.

The offense for the Panthers has seemingly taken a trip to Narnia and disappeared for this postseason. They had the best scoring attack in the NHL during the regular season, but they have looked completely baffled and out of sync throughout these playoffs. However, it isn't like they are playing poorly, per se, which is what is confusing. Florida is averaging 35 shots on goal per game, and rank second in goals scored in 5-on-5 situations this postseason.

They simply can't get the puck past a red-hot Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has been an absolute wall in this series. Since Tampa's Game 7 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round, Vasilevskiy has an SV% of .971, which is by far the best of any postseason goalie. If it were not for him, I'm not sure what this series would look like, but it wouldn't be 3-0 Lightning. Some of Tampa's best players have started to find their rhythm as well. Nikita Kucherov, who played in just 47 regular season games due to injury, leads the Lightning in postseason points with 11. Steven Stamkos has been somewhat quiet, but he did score 2 goals in Game 3, and he is always a threat.

I'll probably take the Lighting to close this one out tonight, as I have seen nothing to convince me that Florida can solve the conundrum that is Vasilevskiy. However, with how awesome the BetQL model has been this postseason, I'll be inclined to bet with whatever it likes.

Game 3 was an extremely tough loss for the St. Louis Blues, and not just because they lost the game on their home ice. Goaltender Jordan Binnington, who had been getting back into his 2019 Stanley Cup winning form, was ruled out for the rest of this series with an injury. That is a devastating blow to a team that was looking to play spoiler against the vaunted Colorado Avalanche, who are widely regarded as the league's best team. Ville Husso is simply not on the same level as where Binnington was right now, and down 2-1 in the series, they will need excellent goaltending from him to come back and win this one.

Before the Avalanche swept the Nashville Predators in round one, their goaltender Juuse Saros was ruled out of the series with an injury. That is now back-to-back playoff rounds where Colorado has been fortunate enough that their opponents starting goaltender was out. Colorado had fallen behind 1-0 when Binnington was injured on Saturday, but rallied against Husso for the victory. Would that have happened against Binnington? The Avs are controlling 54.45% of the expected goals at 5-on-5 in the series, so it is possible they still do. Darcy Kuemper was excellent yet again for Colorado and his rejuvenation has been incredible to see during this postseason run.

Some think that maybe Binnington was the starter all season for St. Louis, but it was actually Husso who received the most starts. During the regular season, Husso finished with a .919 SV% and 13.5 goals saved above expected, which was good for ninth-best in the NHL. It isn't like he isn't capable, or even is a backup goalie, but the Blues were just riding the hot hand of Binnington after he struggled to start the postseason. Husso has an .891 SV%, 3.38 GAA and -2.2 goals saved above expected, which is the lowest mark of any netminder who is still in the playoffs.