It's been a rough start for the two-time defending champion Lightning, sitting at 2-3-1 and playing the second of a back-to-back after a 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Monday.
The Penguins, on the other hand, have overcome a ton to start the season, losing centers Sidney Crosby (wrist surgery) and Evgeni Malkin (knee surgery). That was followed up by Bryan Rust (lower body)going down two games in, and center Jeff Carter and defenseman Kris Letang were in NHL COVID-19 protocol last weekend.
The 3-0-2 Pens come in as slight underdogs still (+110), having won 7-1 over the Maple Leafs this past weekend. So yeah, they can still score, no need to worry about that offensive depth apparently.
Mike Sullivan is 8-2 as a home underdog of +100 to +200 while coaching Pittsburgh Penguins, and BetQL has Pitt +110 as a three-star bet for tonight. After the simulations were finished, the Penguins were found to be slight 52.7 percent favorites over Tampa. The Penguins are also favored despite being projected for 29 shots on goal vs. 31 shots for the Lightning, in case you wanted to take that into account too.
Another major issue for Tampa is the fact that they're 0-for-11 on the power play during their three-game losing streak (0-2-1) and they are allowing 4.17 goals per game, third-most in the NHL, while the Penguins have scored 23 goals in five games.
The BetQL NHL Model is 66-43 (60.6%) all-time on Penguins moneyline bets. Sign up for a Day Pass below and get an edge betting on the NHL with BetQL!