NHL 2020/2021 Season Preview - Detroit Red Wings

Patient rebuild continues in Hockeytown

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Ken Lund, Flickr

Central Division

Odds: Point totals 42.5, to make playoffs +800, to win division +3700, Stanley Cup +20000

Simulation results: 8th in the Central with 42 points

Last Season

Detroit’s downfall has been hard. Last season they were dead last in the East and dead last in the NHL. Only 17 wins in 71 games and W% of 0,275 – second to last, Ottawa had 0.437% so the gap was huge to even the second worst team.

Rebuilding is still ongoing, but not really moving forward. Perhaps Steve Yzerman has a working plan as he did with struggling Tampa Bay. Simulations predicted Detroit to be second to last in the East last season, but there was simply no progress at all on their 5th season of rebuilding process and they played by far their worst season in the modern NHL era.

Changes to 2021 and the divisional matchups

Not much has changed and therefore not much is expected. Steve Yzerman as GM continues the rebuild around Dylan Larkin, Filip Zadina and the likes, but there’s not really any superstar talent coming through – but Detroit is notoriously patient and they have not needed superstar talent straight away previously. It does take time though and the hockey fans in hockeytown are growing impatient as time grows thin with Dylan Larkin. They got rid of some dead weight in the offseason, but did also bring in some veterans, like Marc Staal, Bobby Ryan and Thomas Greiss. If and when there is a plan to rebuild, it looks quite a mystery at the moment. The Central division is tough on the top and the challengers have their pieces together way better than Detroit. It is hard to see the Red Wings doing much else than losing to their betters – looking for that first overall draft pick, perhaps.

Roster and lineups

Detroit is still very likely the worst team in the NHL, but the young players are slowly but surely stepping up. Thomas Greiss is the no.1 stopper this time around and is decent if not a star-caliber keeper. Defensively Detroit was horrible and has been a while and that is something Jeff Blashill and Yzerman will likely try to improve along the rebuild – not too many young prospects there either, only Filip Hronek and Dennis Cholowski. There’s more veteran presence in the D now with Jon Merrill, Troy Stecher and Marc Staal joining Patrik Nemeth and Danny DeKeyser. No elite defensemen, but defensively capable of avoiding complete annihilation for the most part.

The offense is carried by Dylan Larkin, with Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi providing some support. Filip Zadina is the next one up, but otherwise the roster lacks secondary scoring and still boasts a bunch of veterans, whose function can be questioned. Considering the rebuilding being going on for five seasons, there’s quite a lot of mediocre players in their prime in the roster, which is lacking some young blood and opportunities to step up.

The player projections are not any more merciful for the Red Wings. Anthony Mantha and Dylan Larkin are projected to score 47 and 45 points, with Tyler Bertuzzi reaching 33. Filip Zadina and Bobby Ryan barely reach the 25 point-mark. Defensively, Jon Merrill is expected to record a positive plus-minus, if only barely by +5 and the rest of the team is likely to stay sub-zero. Thomas Greiss and Jonathan Bernier in the goal are in for a tough season, with less than 90% save percentage in the simulations.

Season predictions

Unsurprisingly, Detroit is the dead last once again in the 2020/2021 season forecast. The division might actually do them good, as it’s not the strongest one except for the absolute top and Detroit might snatch a win here or there from their competitors. It’s not much fun to start the season previews by completely agreeing with the oddsmakers, but this time they seem to be spot on. Detroit has the biggest odds of all NHL to win the Stanley Cup, but it’s still not worth a nickel.

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