NHL 2020/2021 - Best Season Future Bets
Season Futures: Total points, playoff probabilities, division win and Stanley Cup odds under scrutiny by our simulations
Regular Season Point Totals
Nashville Predators 62.5 -> 69
Their division is quite even from the top down, with Tampa taking the lead but then the likes of Carolina, Dallas and Columbus chasing. Nashville is somewhat of a question mark and a team in transition, but they are not that far distanced from a Stanley Cup run and their roster is balanced and competitive. The line is only 5th highest in the Central division, while we have Nashville 2nd, tied with Carolina.
Chicago Blackhawks 49.5 -> 60
Blackhawks are not that bad a team and they still have their veteran core available, with a couple of younger guns assisting. The line is set ridiculously low, only a couple of points higher than Detroit so even if we have Chicago missing the playoffs, they should go over the line of 49.5 rather easily by 10 points according to simulations. Goalkeeping and missing Toews from the start is a question mark, but Patrcik Kane with Dominik Kubalik should be enough to rack up the points to go over.
New York Rangers 59.5 -> 66
The toughest of divisions is the East and the young team from New York is in for a challenge. The simulations indicate them to both make the playoffs and finish with over 59.5 points racking up 66. They have all the pieces in place and looked good already last season and now they should come even more prepared. Let the Rangers be our dark horse for the season and let’s pick this over.
Edmonton Oilers 64.5 -> 75
One of the surprises in simulations, Edmonton is set to win the North division just before Toronto. Of course, their centermen duo needs to work their magic once again in order to be successful, but the line of 64.5 is relatively low, only third highest in their division. Oilers seems like a regular season champion, but might be in trouble come playoff-time.
Colorado Avalanche 76.5 -> 83
Our favorite horse in these races overall, the point total for Colorado is set at 76.5 which is the highest in the division, which is set in two floors. Higher tier teams Coloroda, St. Louis and Vegas are fighting for the top spot and then Minnesota, Arizona, San Jose and Anaheim with Los Angeles should give the easy points to their betters. Colorado was so impressive last season and they are only getting better, we have to take the over even if the line is already quite high. Simulations indicate 83 points, most in the NHL.
Arizona Coyotes 55.5 -> 62
The best of the rest in the Western division, Arizona should do well against the bottom clubs and maybe snatch a point here and there from their betters. The line is set at 55.5 which seems a tad low for a team that should challenge for the 4th playoff spot with Minnesota. The team is not remarkably good, but well balanced and they are hard to play against. Simulations have them at 62.5 points.
Boston Bruins 71.5 -> 67
It’s a tough call in a tough division, but it’s likely that the top teams are dropping points to each other and no team seems to have any great advantage over one another. In the simulations, the top three teams are within one point and the top five teams within two points. Boston has the highest line in the division, 71.5, a couple of points ahead of Penguins, Flyers and Capitals. This seems a bit too high, even if Boston is a great team – but there’s nothing that really separates them from the other top teams in the division. We are bravely taking the under as in simulations Bruins get 67 points.
Montreal Canadiens 67.4 -> 52
The Canadiens seem like heavily overrated team in the North. The western conference teams arriving to Canadian division are remarkably tough to play against and Montreal doesn’t have the quality to compete with these teams. The line is second highest of their division at 67.5 and the simulations completely disagree, having them at 52 points. Of course, Carey Price and Shea Weber are still fantastic players, but they are not the second best team in the North. Under 67.5 looks like an excellent choice.
Anaheim Ducks 53.5 -> 46 and Los Angeles Kings 49.5 -> 45
Both teams are rebuilding and retooling, with not much to show for it at the moment. They are very likely the worst teams in the west, where the top is heavy and the bottom is lousy. Anaheim’s line of 53.5 is way too high and they’re predicted to gather 46 points in simulations. Kings are deemed even worse as the line is 49.5 and their simulations results indicate 45 points. Pick either to go under, or both. It’s unlikely they can match any of the top tier teams in that division.
Philadelphia Flyers +450
Flyers is tied second with Penguins to take the throne in the tough eastern division according to the odds, but in the simulations they are in the pole position. It will be evenly matched division, but the odds of +450 are attractive for up and coming Flyers.
St. Louis Blues +550
We do have Colorado winning the division, but the odds at +140 are too low for any value in a division with Vegas and St. Louis challenging. Blues have a good chance of capturing the top spot and they are somewhat undervalued by the odds and +550 is a good value bet.
Edmonton Oilers +460
A controversial team and a controversial pick, but everything is possible in the Canadian division. There are not too many contenders and Oilers of course rise and fall with McDavid and Dreiseitl, but they do look like a regular season winners. They are behind Toronto judging by the odds, but +460 offers nice value for the divisional win.
Making the Playoffs
There’s usually no value in these types of bets, but this special season is likely to offer some value for the underdogs.
New York Rangers +115
Like we keep repeating, the eastern division is very close and all even at the top, leaving a nice out for the Rangers to surprise many and take the fourth spot heading to playoffs. For this to happen one of the traditional contenders needs to slip up and in simulations that team is Pittsburgh – although in simulations all the top five teams are almost even. Rangers would do well overcoming their local rivals Islanders, but they have the offensive prowess to do just that and head to the playoffs.
Winnipeg Jets +100
They do need to sort out the defense, either by trades or a change in the system, but Jets have a chance to upset the North with their excellent offense. Overall there are couple of stronger teams than them, but the fourth spot is there for the taking. The odds have small value here at +100.
Arizona Coyotes +175
The top three in West seems set in stone, but the last spot is up for grabs. It’s likely a battle between Minnesota, San Jose and Arizona and the odds of +175 are attractive enough. In simulations, it is Minnesota taking the spot but only by one point difference to Arizona.
Picking the favorites is easy this time around and they might even have some value – but the circumstances are so special that we would rather look into some dark horses in these races.
Philadelphia Flyers +1700
A long shot for sure, the East division winners in simulations have the pieces to go all the way. Beating their own division first in the playoffs is of course a huge task, but after that there’s barely any better teams to face.
St. Louis Blues +2000
Champions two seasons ago, their team hasn’t gotten any worse even with Alex Pietrangelo leaving. Definitely a team made for playoff hockey, it will be a challenge to plow through the Avalanche and Golden Knights in their own division but then it’s all open. There’s some value, but of course it is a long shot.
Edmonton Oilers +2200
Even more of a long shot, but it just might be such an extraordinary season that Oilers go all the way. They should do well in the Canadian division, but it will be hard to beat the winners of other divisions for sure. However, the team has still a lot of room for growth and if things start to – finally – click in Edmonton, it will be a tough team to stop on the roll. High risk, high reward situation.
Tampa Bay +850 & Colorado Avalanche +650
The reigning champions are the 2nd favored team to win it again by the oddsmakers at +850, only bested by Colorado Avalanche at +650. The duo looks to be just a bit ahead of every other team and neither does have any real weaknesses. You can’t go much wrong in picking the two best teams in the league to win the Stanley Cup, but the odds are quite well set and there’s barely any value there. Still, for safer choice, go with the favorites and then add some pennies for the underdogs to prepare for the surprises.