BetQL Model: Value on Tampa Bay Lightning to Win the Stanley Cup

The 2021 NHL Playoffs have advanced to the Stanley Cup Semifinals, with some familiar teams that have been there before. The No. 1 seed Vegas Golden Knights are taking on the No. 4 seed Montreal Canadiens and the No. 2 seed Tampa Bay Lightning are facing-off against the No. 3 seed New York Islanders. With the semifinals already underway, we ran BetQL’s model simulations to project every team’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Golden Knights are the consensus favorites across the books to win it all, but does wagering on them now give you the best value for your buck?

To try to identify some teams that present betting value, we dug into the model’s projections to compare its Stanley Cup Win % against DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook’s Implied odds of winning it all. Let's jump in!

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Bet to Make

Tampa Bay Lightning (+270, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Lightning easily defeated the Hurricanes 4-1 in the last Round, but Tampa Bay now trails New York 1-0 in the series. With Game 2 on deck for tonight, the BetQL Model sees an advantage in betting TB at this number, even down a game.

DraftKings currently lists the Lightning with a 27% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Our model has Tampa Bay winning 32% of the time, second only to the Golden Knights, which means there is big value on them at +270.

Rest of the Field

Vegas Golden Knights (+105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Golden Knights take on the Canadiens in this matchup. Vegas is a huge favorite in the series, and they're the overall favorites to win it all.

DraftKings currently lists the Golden Knights with a 48% of winning, whereas our model has them winning 41%. Unfortunately at those odds, there is no value betting on them now, per the model.

New York Islanders(+360, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Islanders took Game 1 from the Lightning, shifting the series odds and their futures odds slightly.

DraftKings lists New York with a 22% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Our model has them winning 20% of the time, which doesn't present an opportunity, even with them up 1-0.

On the flip side, if the Islanders were to win Game 2, they'd be much bigger favorites to make it to the Stanley Cup, and their futures odds would shorten.

Montreal Canadians (+1100, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Canadiens are taking on the favorites, so neither the sportsbooks or model are giving them much of a chance to win Lord Stanley's Cup.

The books project Montreal to win 8.3% of the time, whereas the BetQl model has them winning it all just 7% of the time.

So, there you have it. If you are looking to fire off an NHL futures bet, sprinkling some money on the Lightning right now, especially at these odds, would be your best bet.