BetQL Model: Value on Boston Bruins to Win the Stanley Cup

The NHL Playoffs haven't disappointed fans or betters, as most games have been filled with non-stop action. With the second-round of the playoffs already underway, we ran BetQL’s model simulations to project every team’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Colorado Avalanche are still the consensus favorites across the books to win it all, but does wagering on them now give you the best value for your buck?

To try to identify some teams that present betting value, we dug into the model’s projections to compare its Stanley Cup Win % against DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook’s Implied odds of winning it all. Let's jump in!

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Teams that Stand Out

Boston Bruins (+550, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bruins easily defeated the Capitals 4-1 in the 1st Round. Boston is now tied 1-1 with the Islanders with Game 3 on deck Thursday, June 3rd.

DraftKings currently lists the Bruins with a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Our model has Boston winning 16% of the time, second only to the Colorado Avalanche, which means there is value on them at +550.

Carolina Hurricanes (+1200, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Hurricanes took down the Predators in Round 1 and are now playing the Tampa Bay Lightning.

FanDuel has the Hurricanes with a 8% chance of winning it all, while our model has Carolina winning 10% of the time. Betting on them now to win it all at +1200 provides some upside here.

[UPDATE: Carolina losing last night decreased their probability to win the Stanley Cup to 4.7% and with it, Tampa Bay's percentage rose to 21%. With the current odds there's no value in betting either of the teams to win the Cup.]

Vegas Golden Knights (+1300, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Golden Knights defeated the Minnesota Wild to move onto Round 2.

DraftKings lists the Capitals with a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Our model has Vegas winning 10% of the time, which makes them undervalued at 13-1 heading right now.

Lottery Ticket

Winnipeg Jets (+1700, FanDuel Sportsbook)

If you are feeling frisky, the Jets are a longshot that our model projects to outperform their implied probabilities. FanDuel lists them as 5.6% favorites to win it all, whereas our model projects them to win 9% of the time.

The NHL Playoffs are absolutely bonkers, so 17-1 odds don't seem that crazy in this spot.