BetQL Model: Value on Avalanche, Penguins, and Capitals to win the Stanley Cup

We’ve finally made it to the NHL Playoffs. With the playoffs set to begin, we ran BetQL’s model simulations to project every team’s chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Colorado Avalanche are the consensus favorites across most books to win it all, but does betting on them give you the best value for your buck when betting futures?

To try to identify some teams that present betting value, we dug into the model’s projections to compare its Stanley Cup Win % against DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook’s Implied odds of winning it all. Let's jump in!

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Teams that Stand Out

Colorado Avalanche (+450, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Avalanche head into the playoffs as the favorites, and understandably so as they've been one of the best teams all season long. Colorado also got better at the trade deadline, finished first in a tough West Division, won the Presidents’ Trophy, and are on a five-game win streak at the right time.

FanDuel currently lists the Avalanche with an 18.8 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Our model has Colorado winning 22 percent of the time, which means there is value on the Avalanche at +450.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+1300, FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Penguins won the East Division after a slow start to their season. They are 8-2 over their last ten games and have won three in a row, so they are in good form. They are a small favorite in Round 1 against the New York Islanders and won the regular season head-to-head series 6-2. If they can get by the Islanders, these odds should shorten a good amount.

DraftKings and FanDuel both have the Penguins with a 7.14 percent chance of winning it all, while our model has Pittsburgh winning 8 percent of the time. Betting on them now to win it all at +1300 provides some upside here.

Washington Capitals (+1300, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Capitals finished the season tied with the Penguins with 77 points, but lost the head-to-head tiebreaker for the top seed in the division. Nonetheless, they are a very good team that went 7-2-1 over their last ten outings and have won two in a row.

DraftKings lists the Capitals with a 5.56 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Our model has Washington winning 7 percent of the time, which makes them undervalued at 17-1 heading into the postseason.

Lottery Ticket

Edmonton Oilers (+2200, FanDuel Sportsbook)

A hot goaltender can take you a long way in the NHL Playoffs. The Oilers hope veteran goalie Mike Smith, who went 21-6-2 with a .923 SV% and 2.31 GAA, can carry them in the postseason.

If you are feeling frisky, the Oilers are a longshot that our model projects to outperform their implied probabilities. FanDuel lists them as 4.35 percent favorites to win it all, whereas our model projects them to win 6.5 percent of the time.

The NHL Playoffs are always insane, and in a year that can only be described as crazy, 22-1 odds doesn't seem so bad in this spot.