Revisiting Wild Card Round Model Trends With Results

As detailed in our “NFL Wild Card Round Model Trends For Every Game” article, there were a number of BetQL model-related trends to be aware of heading into the opening round of the playoffs. When coupled with our star ratings, these particular trends create an edge you simply cannot find elsewhere. Let’s take a look at three best bets and corresponding trends that hit over the weekend.

Buccaneers -7 vs. Eagles

Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Final Score: Buccaneers Won 31-15

Heading into this game, BetQL had gone 30-19 (61.2%, +$829 on $100 bets) on ATS bets in Tom Brady’s starts. The Bucs closed at -7 home favorites in this matchup and the model listed that as a maximum-value pick despite the fact that Tampa Bay’s offense was depleted without Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones at running back due to injuries and with Chris Godwin injured and Antonio Brown gone. Brady and company were in complete control and dominated from start to finish.

As you can see from the closing data above, there was a public lean towards the Bucs but a slight sharp lean towards the Eagles. In this instance, public bettors were on the right track.

Raiders-Bengals UNDER 48.5

Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Final Score: Bengals Won 26-19

Heading into this contest, BetQL had gone 28-14 (66.7%, +$1,146 on $100 bets) on O/U bets in Derek Carr’s starts. The under went 9-8 in both teams’ games going into this game, so there was no obvious historical edge for either team, which made this an extremely valuable edge to get access to. It was a winner since the teams combined for 45 points. 

As you can see above, 70% of public bets backed the over, so if you faded the public and bet with our model and this trend, you would have won.

49ers-Cowboys UNDER 51

Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

Final Score: 49ers Won 23-17

Just like the Raiders-Bengals game, the under went 9-8 in both of these teams’ games going into this matchup, but access to the model would have pointed you in the right direction. BetQL had gone 21-10 (67.7%, +$910 on $100 bets) on O/U bets in Jimmy Garoppolo’s starts and listed under 51 as a three-star value.

As you can see above, the public leaned towards the over and sharp bettors were overweight on that side of the spread. If you rode the BetQL Model, you would have had a different (and correct) outlook.

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