Opposing Quarterbacks Matter When Betting NFL Win Totals

As we get set for the full NFL schedule release, which as you can is essentially a national holiday for some, let's remember the most important advice you can soak up during this emotional time -- don't overreact.

This goes for strength of schedule or where a win or a loss would be, and instead just remember that overthinking will leave your brain in knots.

Now, that doesn't mean we can't at least get an idea for how some seasons will shake out, of course. It's just important to understand that similar to what we just saw during the NFL Draft, there's a lot of noise, and you have to cut through a good portion of it to find what matters.

Start At The Top

First and foremost, the quarterback matters above all else in this league, and when you have one, there's always a shot to hit the over on wins. Without someone you can count on though, they become a much more risky situation to predict, no matter what their schedule looks like.

There's a reason why the Bills and Bucs have the highest win totals (11.5) at DraftKings, and the Texans sit in the basement (4.5), and it all starts with who's under center. Josh Allen is the favorite to win MVP (+700 at FanDuel), and the ageless Tom Brady comes in just behind Allen (+800). Meanwhile, the rebuilding Texans will likely start Davis Mills, who yes, does have any MVP odds (+10000), and sure he did at least show some flashes last season in a tough situation. But still, I don't think I need to explain the difference here though right?

The Packers sit just behind those first two organizations at 11 wins, and even though he may have lost Devante Adams, Aaron Rodgers is still, well, Aaron Rodgers. Oh, and he's also +1000 to win MVP by the way.

Those teams will always be in the mix as long as their starting QBs are healthy. Then, you have a team like the Broncos who upgraded at the position, and we see the spike in potential wins, having won seven last year, but pre-schedule release, have a win total of 10. The AFC may be loaded, but Denver got better at least on paper, and we know why.

Same On The Other Side

This also holds true for those opponents you see on the schedule when it comes out. You can drive yourself nuts playing the "win-loss" game, but in reality, what really matters is the name of the quarterbacks on the schedule. That tells you how truly tough the 17 games will be.

We know AFC West teams will without a doubt have it that way, which explains why the Chiefs (10.5 wins), Chargers (10), and Raiders (8.5) along with the Broncos may have a number slightly lower than they would in another division. They'll see strong QB play twice a year from every division opponent, making for a long road ahead.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys having 10 wins as the benchmark at the moment comes with yes, a good Dak Prescott, but it's boosted because the NFC East is always a train wreck, and brings a ton of uncertainty with Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones on the schedule twice. They're likely sitting closer to the Raiders' total if they were in the AFC West.

All in all, we know the NFL is incredibly unpredictable. There's always a team that makes a huge leap like the Bengals last year, and there's always one or two that can't live up to expectations.

But if you start with the most important position and work your way back from there, you'll find all the noise gets at least just a little quieter.