Matthew Stafford And Other Week 4 DFS Value Options
The Lions quarterback is off to a hot start and should be in a favorable spot on Sunday
- Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is off to a great start and should benefit from the game script against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
- New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Wayne Gallman should make up a large chunk of their offensive production against the Washington Redskins while running things back with Paul Richardson could pay off.
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- After a down week, the public will be off of Oakland Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, which creates an opportunity.
- Carolina Panthers wideout Curtis Samuel has emerged as a threat and should benefit from Kyle Allen's presence.
- Will Dissly and T.J. Hockenson are fine tight end plays while the Seattle Seahawks defense has upside at a discounted price.
In the shadow of a Week 3 slate that allowed us to lock Rex Burkhead and Nelson Agholor into 100% of our lineups without a second thought, Week 4 looks particularly bereft of obvious values at the present moment. While other players are sure to emerge with the news of the week, the options listed below are primarily high-variance options with upside that far exceeds their salary and are thus preferable for GPPs only.
Matthew Stafford (Lions)
(DraftKings $5,500 | FanDuel $6,900)
The Lions are hosting Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Kansas City offense in a battle of unbeatens, but the quarterback I’m targeting is former number one overall pick Matthew Stafford as Detroit’s likely to throw the ball a ton as they attempt to keep up with the best offense on the planet in a game with a 54 point total, the highest of the week (as of Wednesday).
Stafford is averaging 20.3 DraftKings points across the first three games of the season, which would be his best fantasy output since 2011 and second best of his career. Stafford’s as naturally gifted a thrower as anyone in the league and has a multiplicity of weapons at his disposal in Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson.
Detroit is at home, they’re getting the Chiefs away from Arrowhead, and they’re projected to be playing catchup in a game with a high total and higher shootout potential, but Stafford’s just the 13th most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and carries the 16th highest price tag on FanDuel. He’s too darn cheap.
Daniel Jones (Giants)
(DraftKings $5,300 | FanDuel $7,300)
Redskins at Giants has sneaky shootout potential as both teams feature surprisingly effective offenses anchored to bad defenses. Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, a discrepancy which will only be exacerbated by the fact that both teams are missing their starting running backs, so this game could be an aerial assault that will race past the high total.
In the period of just a few months, Jones has gone from draft day punchline to preseason darling to Giants starting quarterback and Rookie of the Year candidate. Jones was thought to be polished, but limited after studying under Peyton Manning’s mentor David Cutcliffe at Duke but Sunday’s performance (23-for-36, 336 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions and two rushing touchdowns) against an improved Tampa Bay defense put many doubts to bed.
Washington is allowing 25.29 DraftKings points a game to quarterbacks, fifth-most in the NFL this season, and Jones stands a great chance to surpass that mark in his first game at the Meadowlands as the Giants will likely employ a pass-heavy approach without Saquon Barkley.
Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
(DraftKings $5,100 | FanDuel $6,000)
Josh Jacobs was everyone’s favorite play in the first two weeks of the season, but the rookie seems to be flying a bit under the radar early in the week due to a lackluster performance against a top-notch Vikings defense and a lack of involvement in the pass game. With Jon Gruden acknowledging the need to get Jacobs more targets (he was more impressive catching the ball than running at Alabama) and a date with a mediocre Colts defense on tap, this is a great time to reinvest in Jacobs.
The Colts are allowing 28.83 DraftKings points a game to running backs, the third-most generous defense on the main slate, including an absurd 5.40 yards per carry. With Jacobs locked into a three down role, he’s a great option for GPPs and in cash game consideration.
Wayne Gallman (Giants)
(DraftKings $4,600 | FanDuel $5,800)
While Justin Jackson and Phillip Lindsey are awfully appealing on DraftKings, their FanDuel prices don’t qualify as values so instead we’re looking at Wayne Gallman who will be occupying the three-down back role for the Giants in Sequon Barkley’s absence.
Gallman is a third-year player from Clemson who was viewed as just athletic enough to find a place in the league, but primarily drafted for his hard-nosed running style that got every yard available to him while making few defenders miss and running away from even fewer of them.
This play is all about context. Gallman should get the lion’s share of the running back touches for the home favorite in a game with a healthy total. The Redskins have allowed 21.57 DraftKings points a game to running backs, not a terribly high number, but more than enough to afford a handsome return on this paltry investment. Gallman’s the safest cheap running back for cash games and could well pay off in tournaments if he finds himself with an outsized number of goal line carries.
Paul Richardson (Redskins)
(DraftKings $3,700 | FanDuel $4,700)
With the Giants allowing a whopping 54.43 DraftKings points a game to wide receivers all the Washington pass catchers are in play, but with Trey Quinn and Terry McLaurin being priced up on FanDuel we’re going to opt for Paul Richardson.
Including a stellar Monday Night Football performance against the Bears where Richardson caught eight of nine targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, Richardson has a career high 79.0 percent catch rate on the season owing largely due to a career-low aDOT of 8.70. With rookie sensation McLaurin likely to see the same double-team attention that limited Chris Godwin’s impact in the Giants victory over the Buccaneers, Case Keenum should target Richardson early and often in a potential shootout with a healthy 47 point total and just a three point spread.
As Richardson’s route tree and volume have fluctuated in the season’s first three games, he’s an ideal option to stack with Keenum (or run back a Giants stack) in GPPs.
Curtis Samuel (Panthers)
(DraftKings $4,600 | FanDuel $5,800)
Making his second appearance in this space in as many weeks, Samuel has been fulfilling the preseason hype with five receptions in each of his last two games and benefits from the presence of Kyle Allen who looked like an upgrade for the Carolina pass game while leading the Panthers to 38 points against the Cardinals last week.
Samuel draws a great matchup against a Houston defense that is allowing 16.67 receptions and 47.0 DraftKings points a game to wide receivers. The Texans have been burned for at least 18.50 DraftKings points by four receivers in their first three games, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, DJ Chark and Keenan Allen, and Samuel looks poised to become the fifth which makes him a great option in all formats for Sunday’s slate.
Will Dissly (Seahawks)
(DraftKings $3,600 | FanDuel $5,400)
After dropping monster DraftKings scores of 22.0 and 18.2 in the last two weeks, Will Dissly gets the best matchup in football this weekend as the Cardinals are allowing a whopping 30.27 DraftKings points a game to tight ends (Mark Andrews 28.2, T.J. Hockenson 28.1, Greg Olsen 25.5), over ten more points a game to the position than the next most generous defense.
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A converted defensive end in his second season from Washington, the sure-handed Dissly (12 receptions on 14 targets) has been a favorite target of Russell Wilson since the moment he stepped on the field. With Chris Carson’s playing time called into serious question due to fumbling issues, and backups Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise not exactly screaming for touches with their level of play, Dissly should easily exceed his career average of 11.9 DraftKings points a game against Arizona.
T.J. Hockenson (Lions)
(DraftKings $3,300 | FanDuel $5,200)
After exploding for 28.1 DraftKings points in his NFL debut, T.J. Hockenson has amassed just 2.8 DraftKings points in his last two games. That should turn around this Sunday against a Kansas City defense that funnels targets to the tight end leading to a league-high 8.67 receptions a game to the position.
The eighth overall pick in last spring’s NFL draft, the Iowa rookie has the physical traits to dominate any matchup, though the Chiefs are a particularly attractive draw as they’ve allowed an average of 17.40 DraftKings points to the position thus far. With the highest point total of the week and a decently-sized spread, this sets up to be a game where the Lions will be throwing early and often which makes Hockenson one of the week’s most attractive options for tournaments.
(DraftKings $3,300 | FanDuel $3,700)
Just the 14th most expensive defense on FanDuel, and the eighth richest option on DraftKings, the Seattle defense makes for an appealing option against the Cardinals’ Air Raid attack.
When targeting fantasy defenses, we search for teams likely to face a large number of passing attempts as most scoring takes place by way of sacks and fumbles. With the Seahawks sitting as a five point favorite as of Tuesday, and Kyler Murray averaging 45.67 pass attempts a game, no value defense has a higher upside on Sunday’s slate.
Note: The advice above reflects the writer's personal views and does not reflect the interest or stance of BetQL or RotoQL.