Week 4 NFL Public & Sharp Betting Report

We're almost at the quarter mark of the 2022 NFL season already, and time has flown by. Seems like just yesterday we were watching that terrible game between the Buccaneers and Cowboys to start us off, doesn't it? Week 3 had some clunkers as well, most noteworthy being the 49ers and Broncos game, which was painful to watch. Scoring is down all across the league this season, and our model has taken note of that and adjusted accordingly to the surprising resurgence of defense we have seen so far.

Not only do we have our model's best bets and expert articles, but we also have live data tracking what the public is betting, where the sharps are betting, and how the lines are moving. When you subscribe to BetQL, you'll gain access to all of that real-time data, as well as the best bets and key trends for every game.

Let's take a look at some of the data from the games below as we give you a sneak preview of some of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NFL Week 4. Start your free trial today!

Line Movement: Cardinals at Panthers

The biggest line movement of the weekend comes in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers game. Originally, the Cardinals were favored by -3 points, but that went away very quickly. The line has moved so much, that the favorite has flipped, and now the Panthers are sitting as -1.5 favorites at home. In my own personal opinion, this is because we have not seen much from Arizona to legitimately say they should be field goal favorites on the road against anyone. Kliff Kingsbury? Really? That's the guy you want to lay points with in a road game? No thanks. The Panthers definitely are not a very good football team, and this should be a close game, but neither of these teams should be a three-point favorite.

What this all means is that books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the Panthers. You can clearly see this on our "Line Movement" dashboard, which will show you the difference between the opening line and current number. BetQL's star ratings change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.

See our model's best bets for this game below and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!

Sharp Money: Seahawks ATS vs. Lions

This week, the sharps seem to be going with a team that usually none of us would even think about betting on, but alas, the money is pouring in. We've already seen some major line movement here, with the Lions going from -6 favorites all the way to just -4. The respected players are backing the awful Seahawks on the road in Detroit, and you can't blame them really.

Detroit as a favorite is usually a disaster to bet on, and it doesn't happen very often. You want to play the Lions when they are huge underdogs, and that obviously is not the case here. Perhaps that is the Seahawks play this year. I took them +7 against the Broncos in Week 1, and I was rewarded. 85% of the money is on the Seahawks, but just 48% of the total tickets. Meanwhile, Detroit has 52% of the total tickets but just 15% of the money.

Therefore, sharp bettors are hammering the Seahawks to cover on the road. This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game below.

Public Bet: Cardinals +1.5 at Panthers

I guess we are back to this game again, but this is a perfect example of how line movement is affected by the sharp bettors early in the week and not the public money. This line went way in favor of the Panthers to start the week, but settled at -1.5, flipping the favorite. The public is coming in HEAVY on the Cardinals at this number, and that is not shocking. Arizona has a whopping 82% of the tickets in this game, while the Panthers have a measly 18%. The people love Kingsbury for some reason.

Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public:

Take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is projecting for NFL Week 4! Start your free trial today!