Week 16 NFL DFS Value Plays To Consider
These players may be cheap, but have upside on DraftKings and FanDuel
If you read this column last week, you knew we were all over Kyler Murray, Raheem Mostert, and Greg Ward. Those three values hit nicely, but it was Kenyan Drake who stole the show on the afternoon slate in Week 15. A total of 11 players scored 30-plus points on DraftKings, but Drake broke out with a four-touchdown game at low ownership. Big props if you clicked his name!
As the end of the regular season is approaching, it’s very important to pay attention to injuries and playoff situations. This is the time when contenders (who already clinched playoff byes) tend to rest their starters in an effort to keep them fresh and healthy heading into the playoffs. Further, teams that are out of contention tend to take looks at certain players that might not have been given opportunities throughout the season. It’s time to capitalize and finish the year on a strong note!
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Redskins vs. Giants (DraftKings $4,700 | FanDuel $7,000)
Not to toot my own horn, but leading up to last week’s matchup against the Eagles, I got on Haskins and publicly predicted a 20 point DraftKings showing. Haskins went 19-for-28 for 261 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and added 26 rushing yards on four carries. That amounted to 20.04 DK points. Not bad, huh? With just two games remaining, Haskins should be given more of an opportunity to throw the ball downfield, where he has established a clear connection with Terry McLaurin. In their first game without Malcolm Jenkins, the Giants allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 279 yards and two touchdowns. There’s no reason why Haskins couldn’t have a similar outing.
Raiders at Chargers (DraftKings $5,300 | FanDuel $7,300)
Let me preface this by noting this is a tournament-only play. The Chargers have been great against the pass this season and rank fourth in the NFL, allowing just 197.4 yards per game through the air. However, Carr’s price tag across the industry is extremely low, he has 30-plus pass attempts in five of his last eight games and will be low-owned. Stacking him with Darren Waller and/or Tyrell Williams could be a solid GPP-only strategy this week.
Lions at Broncos (DraftKings $4,900 | FanDuel $6,600)
Like Haskins last week, Blough checks in under $5,000 on DraftKings and is also just $6,600 on FanDuel. If you think a two-touchdown performance with around 200 passing yards is in his range of outcomes, you can do a whole lot worse. The Broncos have been stingy against the pass this year, but since both teams are out of the playoff picture, stranger things have happened!
Dolphins vs. Bengals (DraftKings $3,800 | FanDuel $5,200)
Sorry Patrick Laird truthers, the experiment may be over. Laird received less than 50 percent of the snaps in Miami’s loss to the Giants and split time with fellow rookie Myles Gaskin, who played 34 total snaps. He broke off a 27-yard run (hilariously the longest of the year by any Dolphins running back) and took nine carries for 43 yards and two receptions for 29 more yards, including a 20-yard catch. Not only should Gaskin receive another bump in workload this week, but he will also get to face the league’s worst run defense. The Bengals have allowed an NFL-worst 158.0 rushing yards per game. Especially if there’s no more news throughout the week, he could fly under the radar.
Redskins vs. Giants (DraftKings $5000 | FanDuel $6,500)
At this point in the season (and in Peterson’s career), there’s no reason why Washington should not continue to let AP chase history. He’s now tied with Walter Payton on the all-time rushing touchdown list, has scored a touchdown in three-straight games and has amassed 99, 76 and 66 yards in consecutive weeks. His workload is safe and the Redskins could end up forcing the ball into his hands in order to pass Payton in front of their home crowd.
Broncos vs. Lions (DraftKings $5,300 | FanDuel $6,300)
The Lions have struggled against the run on the road this season, allowing 123.9 rushing yards per game (25th). To add insult to injury, they also now have to deal with Denver’s altitude and the bitter cold, two elements that should not work in their favor. Lindsay is coming off the worst game of his season and took seven carries for 32 yards while failing to catch either of his targets. But, Patrick Mahomes and company got out to an early lead which created a pass-first game script (Denver passed the ball 40 times and ran it 15 times). Box score watchers will not click Lindsay’s name, but he’s an elite tournament value.
John Ross III
Bengals at Dolphins (DraftKings $4,200 | FanDuel $5,200)
If you know anything about Ross, his blazing speed might be the first thing that comes to mind. Last week, he was targeted three times and caught just two passes for 24 yards against the elite Patriots secondary. Therefore, box score watchers won’t touch him this week. If you recall, before he suffered an injury in late September, Ross began the season with a 158-yard performance with two touchdowns against the Seahawks and then a 112-yard showing against the 49ers with another touchdown. He was arguably the top-producing wideout in football over that span. A cake matchup against the terrible Dolphins secondary could be just what he needs to finish the year on a strong note. He’s a tournament-only play, but he has sky-high upside.
Dolphins vs. Bengals (DraftKings $3,800 | FanDuel $5,400)
Wilson had his most productive game of his 2019 campaign against the Giants last week, catching five of eight targets for 59 yards. With just two games to go and with an uncertain future in Miami, it would make sense for him to continue to be featured this week against Cincinnati’s terrible defense. The shifty speedster has seen at least five targets in four of the last five weeks.
Jaguars at Falcons (DraftKings $4,300 | FanDuel $5,800)
Conley becomes a much stronger play if DJ Chark (ankle) misses his second-consecutive game, but is still worth consideration if his teammate returns in Week 16. Conley scored two touchdowns on four catches for 49 yards against the Raiders last week and should continue to be involved in the passing game with Gardner Minshew II under center.
Broncos vs. Lions (DraftKings $3,700 | FanDuel $5,900)
Fant has been a boom-or-bust fantasy player this season, but it’s hard not to like his prospects against Detroit’s defense in Denver. After all, the Lions just gave up 458 passing yards and four touchdowns to Jameis Winston without Mike Evans on the field. Fant already has a couple 100-yard receiving games under his belt during his rookie campaign and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that happen again in this matchup.
Giants at Redskins (DraftKings $3,200 | FanDuel $5,100)
While Smith’s outlook is not solely dependent on Daniel Jones’ status, it’d seemingly help his stock if the rookie quarterback was under center this week. In two weeks with Eli Manning at the helm, Smith caught five passes for 47 yards. The previous week, he caught six balls for 70 yards after hauling in five passes for 17 yards and a touchdown the week before with Jones throwing him the ball. If Manning starts again, Smith might be worth a dart throw at the position, but if Jones returns, he becomes a more intriguing play.
Titans vs. Saints (DraftKings $2,100 | FanDuel $3,600)
The Titans rank 8th in the NFL in defensive scoring, allowing just 19.9 points per contest. Still on the playoff bubble (like they always are), and at a very deflated price tag (especially on DraftKings), it’s hard not to consider them in front of their home crowd, even against Drew Brees and the Saints offense.
Cowboys at Eagles (DraftKings $2,600 | FanDuel $3,600)
Dallas’ defense hasn’t been a fearsome unit by any means lately, but there’s still a chance that Philadelphia’s receivers will still be a depleted bunch on Sunday. Injury news will determine whether or not rostering Dallas’ D/ST makes sense, but if Philly trots out the same group as last week against the Redskins, having some shares of the Cowboys would be a sharp move.