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What’s better than putting together a parlay that you feel confident about? Using the BetQL Model, I identified three valuable bets to take advantage of at +487 odds: the Minnesota Vikings -4 (-110) 1st half at the Detroit Lions, the Cincinnati Bengals -158 full-game moneyline vs. the Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery over 18.5 receiving yards (-113) vs. the Arizona Cardinals. Let’s go through each leg individually and if you’re on board, bet it yourself!
While the Vikings clearly have an issue closing games (given their 5-6 record with six single-possession losses), I love them at -4 in the first half against the winless Lions this week, even with star running back Dalvin Cook out with an injury. BetQL is listing this as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ value and the model has gone 24-12 (66.7%) on 1st half spread bets in Vikings QB Kirk Cousins’ starts. Just so you know, if you bet $100 on those, you’d be up $999 right now and Minnesota has also gone 7-0 against the 1st half spread against NFC opponents this season. Those factors are enough to feel confident, especially against the winless Lions.
The Bengals have gone 8-2 SU (+13.8 units) vs. teams that average 235+ passing yards per game over the last two years. Justin Herbert and the Chargers average 280.8 passing yards per game, which makes this trend relevant. Not only that, but after their Week 11 bye, Cincinnati clearly re-committed to the running game and Joe Mixon ran wild on their last two opponents: the Las Vegas Raiders (123 yards, 2 TD) and Pittsburgh Steelers (165 yards, 2 TD). Guess what team ranks dead last against the run in terms of yardage allowed per game (145.3). That’s right: the Chargers! Expect the Bengals to continue that approach and continue to ascend in the standings.
BetQL projects the Bears running back to take 11 carries for 45 yards and catch four passes for 40 yards against Arizona. Therefore, over 18.5 receiving yards is a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ value. Multiple factors are working in this bet’s favor. First, it’s expected to be windy, which could affect the deep passing game to wide receivers, especially with Andy Dalton under center. Second, Montgomery caught three passes for 28 yards last week and out-touched Khalil Herbert 20 to six, thus confirming his role as an every down, bell cow back. Third, the Cardinals have allowed 72 receptions (8th most) for 502 yards (11th most) to opposing running backs. Finally, as underdogs, the Bears will likely be playing from behind which could cause them to pass the ball with more regularity. That would aid the over as well.
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