Week 11 NFL Early Line Analysis

Getting in on these early lines before they move could pay off

Keith Allison, Flickr

Now that we've passed the halfway point of the NFL regular season, we have enough of a sample size to begin to separate the contenders and pretenders from the pack. Let’s take a look at some exploitable early Week 11 lines:

SPREADS

Dolphins (+6) vs. Bills 

Sunday November 17th, 1:00pm EST 

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The Bills have lost two of their last three games and are 1-1-1 ATS over that span. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have won two in a row and are 3-0 ATS in their last three contests. After getting off to an historically-awful start to the season, Brian Flores has seemingly gotten his team to squash the tanking perception. These two teams played in Buffalo back on October 20th and the Bills won 31-21. Since then, the two squads have been headed in opposite directions and this game will take place in Miami. Expect the spread to get tighter as the week rolls on.

Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans

Sunday November 17th, 1:00pm EST 

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The Ravens demolished the winless Bengals 49-13 in Week 10 and it’s clear that Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s offense is among the NFL’s most dangerous units. The Ravens defense has also emerged as a reliable group, allowing 17, 16, 20 and 13 over the last four games respectively. The Texans have won four of their last five games overall, but have gone 1-2 ATS in their last three games while the Ravens have gone 3-0 ATS over their last three contests. Lamar Jackson and company will look to carry their momentum into this contest and they’ve proven to be matchup-proof.

MONEYLINES

Patriots (-190) at Eagles

Sunday November 17th, 4:25pm EST

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The Patriots are 8-1 overall, 4-1 ATS over their last five games, are coming off of a 17-point loss and have had a bye week to prepare for this matchup. Bill Belichick will have them ready to succeed in Philly. Since 2000, the Patriots are 14-5 SU coming off of a bye week while the Eagles are 2-3 coming off of a bye over the last five seasons. 

Chargers (+170) vs. Chiefs

Monday November 18th, 8:15pm EST

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Since changing offensive coordinators, the Chargers have been able to effectively run the football, which is a great sign for them and a terrible sign for the Chiefs, who have been gashed by opposing running backs at historically-bad levels after halftime in their games this season. Both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler should be able to make a difference. Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes back, but has clear deficiencies elsewhere, having lost four of their last six games overall. After two or more consecutive overs, the Chiefs have gone 9-13 SU under Andy Reid.

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