Commanders vs. Jaguars: NFL Week 1 First Look & Lean

Both quarterbacks (and teams) want to use this as a statement game

Commanders vs. Jaguars Odds

The Washington Commanders opened as a home favorite for their Week 1 battle against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last season, the Commanders went 7-10 AU, 7-9-1 ATS and 7-10 O/U while the Jaguars went 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS and 5-12 O/U. Stay tuned for our model’s best bets in the coming weeks, but scroll down to see where I’m leaning at the moment.

Commanders vs. Jaguars Week 1 Lean: Jaguars ATS

Let’s start with the Jags. After a three-win rookie season, quarterback Trevor Lawrence will have more weapons around him in 2022: healthy running back Travis Etienne Jr., wide receivers Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones Jr., tight end Evan Engram and more. Don’t forget about James Robinson, either. Under new head coach Doug Pederson, the coaching staff was completely overhauled and the team made some nice improvements on the defensive side of the ball as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if this Jacksonville team turns things around. I’m most likely going to bet their moneyline here as road underdogs.

Yes, Carson Wentz at quarterback is going to be an upgrade over last season’s situation in Washington. However, outside of Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson, I’m not high on this offense, especially with all of the uncertainties on their line. While their defense is projected to be solid on paper, don’t forget that it was the worst team DVOA on third and fourth down, 48.2% worse than the league average on those late downs. In all, I’m not a fan of third-year offensive coordinator Scott Turner and also don’t trust that veteran defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will change his play-calling mindset all of a sudden. Therefore, for those reasons, give me the Jags against the spread at the moment.