Simulation Data: Top 6 NFL Player Prop Values

The following value bets were determined after simulating every single 2022 NFL regular season game 10,000 times. Our model takes into account historical performance, current roster situations, play types, injuries and dozens of data points.

Shop for the best odds using our Player Prop Comparison tool. All you have to do is type in the name of a player and you’ll instantly see the lines from our sportsbook partners! Scroll down to check out the best bets that we found using that tool!

Carson Wentz Over 3,450.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)

BetQL Simulation: 3,870 Passing Yards

Has there been a more disrespected quarterback in recent memory? After throwing 27 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions with 3,563 yards, the Colts let him go and he’ll take his 140:57 TD:INT ratio to Washington, where he will get a fresh start. Behind a solid offensive line, Wentz will have a talented receiver trio of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson catching passes for him and should also benefit from the pass-catching abilities of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic out of the backfield as well. Wentz should be an upgrade over last year’s combination of Taylor Heinicke, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrett Gilbert and Kyle Allen, who combined for 3,746 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions under offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who will return this season. BetQL is projecting Wentz to cruise over his 3,450.5-yard total and finish at 3,870. 

Aaron Rodgers Over 30.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112, FanDuel)

BetQL Simulation: 36 Passing Touchdowns

Coming off of a 37-touchdown MVP campaign in which he threw for 4,115 yards with only four interceptions, Rodgers now faces an interesting challenge after the Packers traded away Davonte Adams in the offseason. He’s gotten over this 30.5-touchdown mark seven times in his career, but now with Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb and rookie Christian Watson looking like his top options at wideout, how will he fare, also considering that Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon can also make an impact out of the backfield as receivers as well? Well, after simulating every game 10,000 times, Rodgers is projected to throw 36 touchdown passes and continue his dominant play under center. Therefore, over 30.5 passing touchdowns is clearly a bet that you want to target as soon as possible.

Derrick Henry Over 1,349.5 Rushing Yards (-115, FanDuel)

BetQL Simulation: 1,630 Rushing Yards

After a record-setting 2020 campaign in which he rushed for 2,027 yards with 17 touchdowns, Henry was limited to eight games due to injury last season. In those contests, he still racked up 937 yards (4.3 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns and attempted to fight through his nagging ailment at times. Now entering a new year back to full health, Henry should continue to be the workhorse that he has been since 2018. Since there are major question marks surrounding Tennessee’s passing game with both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones gone, even more rushing volume could be put on Henry’s broad shoulders this year. BetQL is projecting him to easily get over his 1,349.5-yard total and predicts that he will rack up an outstanding 1,630 yards on the ground this season. 

Tony Pollard Over 3.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-130, DraftKings)

BetQL Simulation: 10 Rushing Touchdowns

It’s safe to say that our model is very high on Tony Pollard. That doesn’t mean Ezekiel Elliott is projected to have a bad year, though. The simulation projects Elliott to rush for 996 yards with 14 touchdowns while Pollard also delivers 855 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns of his own in a prolific Cowboys running game. Pollard has also been working as a slot receiver in an effort to stay on the field more, but his explosiveness is going to be something Dallas leans on as a rusher. He averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per carry last year with two rushing scores, but given that CeeDee Lamb is going to be the only proven target for Dak Prescott in the passing game, we could see this offense play to its strengths, which could very well be on the ground.

Cooper Kupp Over 1,299.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

BetQL Simulation: 1,637 Receiving Yards

Yes, last season’s offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell is now gone (since he took over the Vikings head coaching job), but it’s hard to imagine that Kupp’s production will take a major hit as a result. Last year, he racked up an insane 1,947 receiving yards with 16 touchdowns in his first campaign catching passes from Matthew Stafford. With Allen Robinson II, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee as passing-game options and Cam Akers returning at running back, Kupp should continue to find opportunities in one of the sport’s top offenses. BetQL is projecting him to record 1,637 receiving yards, well above his 1,299.5-yard total. Expect him to continue his elite-level production while lining up all over the field. 

Stefon Diggs Over 8.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-112, FanDuel)

BetQL Simulation: 11 Receiving Touchdowns

As someone who thrives against both man coverage and zone coverage, Diggs has proven himself as one of the best receivers in the NFL. With four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, he has been dominant in his two years with Josh Allen in Buffalo, catching 127 passes for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns in 2020 before hauling in 103 passes for 1,225 yards and 10 scores last season. With most of the Bills’ core returning, there’s no reason to expect his touchdown production to decline. The simulation is projecting him to amass 11 touchdowns, easily over the 8.5 mark he has at FanDuel and across the industry. If Allen takes another step forward as a passer, Diggs will be the main beneficiary.