Staff Picks For Patriots-Bills Week 13 MNF Matchup
Find out which bets we’re targeting
Dan Karpuc - Dec 6, 2021, 12:14pm EST
Dan Karpuc: Damien Harris Over 11.5 Rushes
Our model is listing this as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ player prop value and is projecting the Patriots RB to rush 18 times for 55 yards. Harris has gotten double-digit carries in each of the last six games, but has split time with backup Rhamondre Stevenson in recent weeks. (In last week’s win over the Tennessee Titans, Harris took 11 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown while Stevenson took nine carries for 46 yards.) Expect OC Josh McDaniels to ride the hot hand in this important game, but Harris should be expected to out-snap and out-carry his rookie teammate in what could be a run-heavy scheme against one of the league’s top passing defenses. Harris may not find success on the ground, given his projection of just 55 yards, but the Patriots will need to establish the run to set up the play action for Mac Jones and their passing attack. Oh, and the National Weather Service projects 25-35 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 60 mph (a “High Wind Warning”). Both teams will be running the football more than usual.
Brad Pinkerton: Bills -150
I might be one of the few people not jumping on the Patriots bandwagon during their six-game win and cover streak. The most impressive win in that stretch was at the Chargers, who are barely above .500 entering Week 13. While the Bills certainly have their flaws, I’m betting with the sharps and taking Buffalo to defend its home turf and give New England a reality check.
Lucy Burdge: Patriots +3
This might not be a blowout of a game, but I think the Patriots are going to take this one against the Bills tonight, or at least cover. The Patriots are 8-4 ATS (and SU), covering 66.7% of the time. It’s supposed to be really cold in Orchard Park and Mac Jones isn’t exactly used to playing in weather like this, but I don’t think this will be a big factor for him here. It snowed during the Titans game and he was unaffected by it, calling the cold “a mindset thing.” The Mac Truck cannot be stopped and I see the Patriots covering against the Bills.
Nick Ashooh: Patriots +3
Just like the Nick Saban effect had me all in on Alabama over the weekend, the Bill Belichick Effect seems to be taking shape again with a new era in New England. These statement games are where he and his teams thrive, finding weird ways to use the weather, or some rule to their advantage. The Pats have won six straight, covering in all six, and I expect the same tonight in a close, but probably sloppy game given what the conditions should be.
Matt Horner: Patriots +3
The Patriots are red hot, and have won and covered six straight. They have been the better team this season, despite all the hype for Buffalo heading into the year. The Pats have an elite pass defense, which syncs up very well against the Bills. Buffalo is a pass heavy team that can’t run the ball, which is where New England is most vulnerable. Bill Belichick is 29-14 ATS as an underdog since 2003, and has dominated the Bills with a 31-10 SU record over that same span. Belichick also has a winning record as a dog, 24-21 SU in his career. Buffalo is 1-3 against teams with a record over .500 this season and as long as rookie QB Mac Jones doesn’t turn the ball over too much against a good Buffalo defense, I like the Pats in this one.
Stories you might also like
See All
