Darnold took a small step forward in his second NFL season, but will make a statement in 2020
By BetQL Staff - May 13, 2020, 12:03am EDT
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Keith Allison, Flickr
The New York Jets went 7-9 last season, but went 7-6 with starting quarterback Sam Darnold under center.
Despite the fact that he wasn't surrounded by many legitimate playmakers, the former third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft threw 19 touchdowns with 3,024 passing yards and 13 interceptions in 13 games. All three of those numbers were improvements from his rookie campaign, as was his 61.9% completion rate.
Keep in mind that Jamison Crowder (78 receptions, 833 yards, 6 TD), Robby Anderson (52 receptions, 779 yards, 5 TD) and Demaryius Thomas (36 receptions, 433 yards, 1 TD) made up his top three wide receiver targets while running back Le'Veon Bell (66 catches, 461 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Ryan Griffin (34 catches, 320 yards, 5 TD) also were targeted frequently.
New York's abysmal rushing attack netted just 3.3 yards per rush and recorded just six touchdowns last season as Bell (3.2 yards per carry for 789 rushing yards on 245 attempts) rarely found running lanes behind a below-average offensive line. The inability to rush the football certainly played a role in limiting New York's offense as a whole.
But, 2020 is a new year. After selecting offensive tackle Mekhi Becton in the 1st Round of the 2020 NFL Draft and wideout Denzel Mims in the 2nd Round, the Jets rounded out a decent offseason that also saw them sign wideouts Breshad Perriman and Josh Doctson as well as veteran running back Frank Gore. Tight end Chris Herndon should also be back and ready to go, which is a huge boost due to his upside.
Let's take a look at two current Darnold props (via DraftKings) and come up with the best bet for both of them.
Passing Yards
Playing only 13 games last season, Darnold racked up 3,024 passing yards, which put him on pace to end up with 3,722 yards with that group of playmakers. Not only is his collection of playmakers much more talented in 2020, but DraftKings assigned the Jets with a 6.5 game regular-season win total. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that Darnold and his teammates will be playing from behind quite often, which is a positive as far as this prop is concerned.
Head coach Adam Gase and his staff has also had a full offseason to look at last season's tape. The five times that the Jets won a game and scored over 20 points, Darnold made things happen through the air, racking up 270, 315, 293, 230 and 338 yards for 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. That's not a coincidence.
If he stays healthy for the full season (this prop requires the season to fully play out), this seems like a number he can blow out of the water given the influx in talent around him.
Best Bet: OVER
Passing Touchdowns
Per Pro Football Focus, New York's offensive line ranked 28th in the NFL last season, and that may have been a generous mark. Think about this for a second: on 27.5% of their quarterback dropbacks, the line allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less. Yikes. Becton is just a part of a $40 million, 1,536-pound makeover that completely overhauled the unit in the offseason.
Buying a little more extra time for Darnold should bode well for his season-long durability. Last year, he got hit 39 times in the pocket, compared to just 12 times in the same number of starts as a rookie. Opposing defenses picked on the o-line, as evidenced by the fact that his opponents blitzed him 59 more times in 2019 than they did in 2018.
Here's where it gets interesting. Darnold progressed towards the back half of last season and actually recorded 10 touchdowns while under pressure. That ended up being tied for the NFL lead and was a very promising sign that the young quarterback learned how to adapt to the pocket collapsing around him.
With Crowder returning as his go-to possession receiver, Mims adding a quality secondary option, Perriman replacing Anderson as a true deep threat, Bell as one of the best receiving backs in the NFL and both Herndon and Griffin as viable targets from the tight end position, this has the makings of a breakout year for Darnold and the Jets passing attack.
Best Bet: OVER
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Note: the advice above is the analysis of the author and does not necessarily reflect the position of BetQL. The outcomes described are not guaranteed in any way.
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