Ross Tucker's Week 12 NFL Betting Advice

The former NFL offensive lineman and current broadcaster reveals his favorite Week 12 bet

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So last week was a mixed bag. For those of you that listen to my betting podcast with two-time Super Contest winner Steve Fezzik called Even Money you know that I was up a whopping 7 units for the week and only got one game wrong. Unfortunately, for those of you that read this weekly Bet QL column, that was the game I wrote about and recommended here.  

I had the Miami Dolphins getting six points from the Buffalo Bills and for some reason Josh Allen decided to have the best game of his career. Oh well. You win some and you lose some and that is what makes gambling fun and challenging.

Each week, I will give you a bet or two that I like for that week. Sometimes, it will be pure analysis and observations of the matchups and an edge that I feel I am able to identify. Other times it will be my instincts as a former player. And hopefully a lot of times it will be a combination of both.

This week I like the Atlanta Falcons even though they are laying four points to the Tampa Bay Bucs for three reasons:

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There was a lot of speculation that Falcons owner Arthur Blank might fire head coach Dan Quinn during the bye week. He decided against that and the Falcons appear to have benefitted greatly by that decision. The players generally really like Quinn and I think realized, one way or the other, that the only way to keep him as their head coach moving forward was to play better and that is exactly what they’ve done. They reportedly got an impassioned speech at some point by the normally reserved Julio Jones and apparently heeded the message that he delivered as they have been utterly dominant in surprising wins on the road over the Saints and Panthers the last two weeks.

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Feisty Falcons 

They made a couple of coaching staff moves on the defensive side of the ball during the bye and it appears to have made a huge impact.  First, they moved wide receiver coach Raheem Morris to the defensive side of the ball where he had previously been a coordinator. Then, Quinn handed over the defensive play-calling duties to Jeff Ulbrich who has clearly done an outstanding job because they look like an entirely different defense.

Before the bye, they were arguably the worst defense in football. Since the bye, they have been on an absolute tear. The Falcons have eleven sacks the last two games, including six of Drew Brees, after having only seven sacks total the first eight games of the season. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like that. Then they picked up Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen four times on their way to keeping their streak of not allowing a touchdown in ten quarters going.

It’s remarkable. And pretty good timing considering who they are going up against in Week 12.

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Jameis. Oh, Jameis.

Now the Bucs come to town and quarterback Jameis Winston will be limping in both literally and figuratively. He sprained an ankle in the loss to the Saints on Sunday but that still might not hurt as much as the knowledge that he is probably just playing out the string in Tampa now. Not only do they have no chance of the playoffs at 3-7 but with 18 interceptions and 11 fumbles there is virtually no chance the Bucs will bring him back as the starter next season after his contract expires.  

So, you have a rejuvenated, attacking, ball-hawking Falcons team going against a Bucs team that realizes they are out of it and are led by a careless quarterback who leads the NFL in interceptions. You never know in the NFL, but add it all up and I am confident laying the points and expecting Atlanta to win by a comfortable margin.

About Ross Tucker 

Ross Tucker played in the NFL for seven years as an offensive lineman after graduating from Princeton University in 2001. As a broadcaster, he works for Radio.com, CBS Sports, and Westwood One.  He also owns and hosts his own podcast network including the Ross Tucker Football Podcast all available at RossTucker.com. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @RossTuckerNFL.