Rams at 49ers: Week 4 MNF Player Prop Values

Our model and historical trends are aligned on the following

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season is almost over, but not before the Rams and 49ers meet for a thrilling divisional rivalry matchup on Monday Night Football! BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, live public and sharp betting data, written analysis,  exclusive sportsbook offers and all of the game-by-game analytics and data you can dream of. Not only that, but our model identifies player prop values. We simulated this game 10,000 times, crunched all the numbers and identified the following mispriced lines to take advantage of.

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ALLEN ROBINSON UNDER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-135, DraftKings)

BETQL PROJECTION: 2 RECEPTIONS, 30 YARDS, 0 TD

Betting under Robinson’s receptions props has been one of the most profitable strategies in week-to-week NFL player prop betting over the last 10 games. In fact, the under has gone 9-1 (+7.45 units, 48% ROI) in that span.

In last week’s win over the Cardinals, Robinson caught just two of five targets for 23 yards and on the season, he has seven catches on 12 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown. His 11.8% target share ranks well behind Cooper Kupp (34.3%), Tyler Higbee (23.5%) and even Ben Skowronek (12.7%) and it’s clear that he hasn’t found his place in this offense yet.

Through three weeks, the Niners have allowed opposing wide receivers to catch just 29 passes (2nd-best in NFL) on 45 targets, so this is an incredibly difficult opponent for Robinson to break out against; he’s played 97%, 92% and 92% of offensive snaps and produced pretty much nothing in his first three weeks. BetQL is projecting him to catch two passes for 30 yards with no touchdowns. Lock this in now on DraftKings!

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DEEBO SAMUEL UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS  (+115, BetMGM)

BETQL PROJECTION: 4 RECEPTIONS, 65 YARDS, 5 RUSHES, 35 YARDS, 0 TD

Samuel is used all over the field, but his utilization in the backfield has seemingly hindered his ability to put up traditional wide receiver numbers. In fact, he’s hit the receptions under in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.00 units, 25% ROI) coming into this one. But, since he has finished slightly over this total in Weeks 2 and 3 (exactly five catches both weeks), you can get plus money on the under.

In three matchups against Los Angeles last season, the Rams held him to four catches (in the NFC Championship Game), four catches and five catches. While Samuel does lead the 49ers with a 25.9% target share on the season, the entire identity of this Niners offense relies on the zone run game. I expect Kyle Shanahan to move him around, use him in the backfield and for him to continue to rack up touches in a number of ways, but not necessarily as a pure receiver. The model agrees and projects him to take five carries for 35 yards and to haul in four catches for 65 yards. Bet this risk-free at BetMGM now (new users only)!

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GEORGE KITTLE UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (-155, FanDuel)

BETQL PROJECTION: 4 RECEPTIONS, 60 YARDS

While Kittle is highly regarded as one of the best offensive tight ends in football, oddsmakers consistently overvalue him. He’s hit the receptions under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.05 units, 28% ROI). Not only that, but 49ers tight ends average just 28.7 receiving yards per contest this year, the fourth-worst in the NFL heading into this week. The Rams have been stingy against this position, too, allowing just 24.7 receiving yards per game to opposing TE’s, the fourth-best mark in the league.

In his return after missing San Fran’s first two games due to injury, he caught four of five targets for 28 yards against the Broncos last week and now faces a Rams squad that had his number in their final two meetings last year. In the NFC Championship, the Niners held him to just two catches on five targets for 27 yards and a touchdown and in Week 18, they allowed him to catch five passes on seven targets, but held him to just 10 yards. Kittle played 91% of his team’s snaps last season and won’t be hindered by any workload restrictions, but this is a tough matchup for him to produce. The model projects him to catch four passes for 60 yards. Make this your no-sweat bet over at FanDuel now!

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MATTHEW STAFFORD OVER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS (-115, Unibet)

BETQL PROJECTION: 270 PASSING YARDS, 1 TD, 1 INT

Stafford has hit the interceptions over in 14 of his last 21 games (+6.85 units, 28% ROI) and now faces a 49ers defense that allowed successful plays on just 27% of opposing pass attempts last week against the Broncos (best in the NFL, league average was 46%). While he took care of the football last week against the Cardinals (no interceptions on 25 pass attempts), he threw three picks in Week 1 against the Bills and two more in Week 2 against the Falcons.

The Niners’ defense has three interceptions as a team through three weeks and have consistently gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks despite having the third-lowest blitz rate (14.6%) in the NFL. In fact, they have the fifth-best QB Hurry Rate (14.6%), second-best QB Knockdown Rate (16.0%) and entered the week ranked first in the entire NFL in Pressure Rate (36.5%). That's wildly impressive and very concerning for LA's offensive line.

Stafford is going to be under pressure all night and we saw what happened to him in Week 1 when he was constantly pressured and sacked seven times against Buffalo: three interceptions. The model is projecting him to throw for 270 yards with a touchdown and an interception in this one. Bet this now at Unibet!

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JIMMY GAROPPOLO OVER 0.5 INTERCEPTIONS (+100, BetRivers)

BETQL PROJECTION: 220 PASSING YARDS, 1 TD, 1 INT

Garoppolo has hit the interceptions over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.9 units, 28% ROI) and now faces a star-studded defense.

The Rams have four interceptions through three weeks and in Jimmy G's last two starts against LA, he's thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions. It's almost certain that Garoppolo's passing volume won't rival Stafford's based on the style of offense he runs, but our model is projecting him to throw an interception and a touchdown in this matchup. Best part: you can get it at plus-money over at BetRivers.

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CAM AKERS UNDER 45.5 RUSHING YARDS (-130, PointsBet)

BETQL PROJECTION: 8 RUSHES, 30 YARDS

It’s clear that the Rams are still searching for their offensive identity. Los Angeles has rushed for just 219 yards this season through three weeks, the third-fewest in the NFL. Unfortunately for Akers, this matchup against the Niners isn’t an easy one; San Francisco has allowed just 241 rushing yards this year, the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL entering this week.

Akers has seen his snap count improve from 18% to 44% to 50% as Darrell Henderson’s has declined, but it’s clear that a three-down workhorse doesn’t exist in this offense right now. That makes it difficult to back either guy since whoever has the hot hand will likely see the bulk of the carries, but Akers began the year in the dog house and will likely be on a short leash if he fumbles, misses a blocking assignment or makes a mental error.

San Francisco has allowed just 78.7 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL heading into this week) and 2.8 yards per rush (3rd in NFL). The Niners have also faced run-heavy offenses (48.55% of opposing plays have been rushes - 5th-most), which make those numbers even more impressive. The Rams have rushed the ball in just 36.57% of their offensive plays heading into this game, thus likely capping Akers’ opportunities. We project him to take eight carries for 30 yards in this matchup, finishing well below his 45.5-yard total. Make this one of your risk-free bets at PointsBet now!

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