Top QB Prop Values From Our Simulation Model

Our model simulated every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times and identified the following player prop values

As we’re approaching the 2022 NFL season, BetQL’s Simulation Model has been hard at work. We already released our Misvalued 2022 NFL Win Totals after simulating every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times. Now, we’re heading to the player prop markets, where we will project quarterback outputs in terms of both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Scroll down to see if you should bet over or under consensus totals and take advantage using our exclusive sportsbook offers ASAP!

As we’re approaching the 2022 NFL season, BetQL’s Simulation Model has been hard at work. We already released our Misvalued 2022 NFL Win Totals after simulating every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times. Now, we’re heading to the player prop markets, where we will project quarterback outputs in terms of both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Scroll down to see if you should bet over or under consensus totals and take advantage using our exclusive sportsbook offers ASAP!

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Ryan Tannehill (Titans): 4,128 Passing Yards

Coming off a 3,734-yard campaign in which he threw 21 passes compared to 14 touchdowns for the Titans, Ryan Tannehill’s passing targets are going to look a lot different in 2022. Tennessee elected to trade wide receiver A.J. Brown and released future Hall of Famer Julio Jones, picked Treylon Burks out of Arkansas with their first-round pick in the NFL Draft and brought in veteran Robert Woods, who will be returning from a knee injury that knocked him out of last year’s Super Bowl run in Los Angeles. Pass-catching tight end Austin Hooper also signed with the team in free agency, giving Tannehill another option. 

While this offense revolves around Derrick Henry, we’ve seen opposing defenses stack the box and also blitz heavily against Tannehill, who took 47 sacks last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. That also led to 1,114 play-action passing yards for him, though, since opposing defenses were so keyed in on stopping the run. Tennessee let go of left guard Rodger Saffold and right tackle David Quessenberry, both of whom were very bad pass protectors, this offseason, clearing the way for two new starters to join left tackle Taylor Lewan, center Ben Jones and right guard Nate Davis. Since Saffold and Quessenberry were both elite run blockers, this move signaled that the front office knows it has to get more balanced in order to get to the next level. That could mean big things for Tannehill, who is projected to throw for 4,128 yards, per BetQL.

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Justin Fields (Bears): 3,843 Passing Yards

The market is anticipating another bad season in Chicago and the Bears are a solid bet to be the NFL’s lowest-scoring team this year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Fields is in store for a bad individual season whatsoever. Let’s not sugarcoat this: Fields struggled, completing 58.9% of his passes for 1,870 yards, seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 12 starts. However, with new head coach Matt Eberflus in town, will things be different? The short, and noncommittal, answer is: maybe. Eberflus is a defensive-minded coach with a lot of experience, but will hand the offense over to coordinator Luke Getsy, who worked in the Packers organization since 2014, most recently as the passing game coordinator for Aaron Rodgers.

The real issue here is going to be personnel. Fields will most likely have Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown and Velus Jones as his top three options and this might be the worst offensive line in football. Don't blame yourself if you don't even know who those three guys are. While this team is expected to struggle and fall behind in games week after week due to their lack of talent on offense, they’re going to be involved in a lot of pass-heavy game scripts as they try to erase deficits quickly. When opposing defenses drop back in coverage, Fields will be able to eat up easy passing yards in short and mid-range situations and with a year of experience under his belt and a full offseason to prepare, he’s a great bet to go over 3,350 yards, an average of 198 yards per game.

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Mac Jones (Patriots): 4,323 Passing Yards

The second-year Patriot accumulated 3,801 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in what was a very impressive rookie campaign in 2021. Now, expectations are sky-high for the young signal-caller as he is leading a former dynastic franchise. Reports have stated that there will be no official offensive coordinator after Josh McDaniels bolted to take over the head coaching role in Vegas, but Bill Belichick has been very outspoken about how impressed he’s been in the young quarterback this offseason. 

New England drafted Baylor wideout Tyquan Thornton and added veteran DeVante Parker to a receiving room that already contained Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, in addition to tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, both of which can be utilized more in McDaniels’ absence. A strong 2021 offensive line will remain strong with the lone exception of Shaq Mason’s departure, but Belichick addressed that hole in the draft. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will provide a strong one-two punch on the ground, which should open up play-action opportunities for Jones and his arm. Look for the Patriots QB to make a statement early in the year and set the tone for what should be a productive career in Foxborough.

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Davis Mills (Texans): 4,046 Passing Yards

The Texans QB was one of the pleasant surprises in 2021, as he amassed 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with four 300-plus yard games in his final 10 starts on a terrible team. New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is installing a whole new offensive system under head coach Lovie Smith, but Mills is penned in as the Week 1 starter and should get a full year of experience under his belt.

Houston drafted wide receiver John Metchie from Alabama to pair up with Mills, but he will unfortunately miss the entire season due to cancer treatment. That means Brandin Cooks, who caught 90 passes for 1,037 yards last year, will be the unquestioned top target for Mills yet again, but the quarterback showed that he could still be accurate with an inadequate receiving group last year since he completed 66.8% of his passes as a rookie. Luckily for the QB, Laremy Tunsil, one of the game’s top tackles, and first-round draft pick Kenyon Green, will man the left side of the line. Since this game comes down to milliseconds in the pocket, having those two guys on the blind side could be a huge benefit for the youngster. Like Fields above, Mills should have an opportunity to rack up meaningless passing yards when his team is trailing. But yards are yards, right? BetQL is projecting him to get to 4,046 on the year.

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Kirk Cousins (Vikings): 4,526 Passing Yards

It’s very difficult to not love Kirk Cousins’ outlook this season. The Vikings made the splash hire of the offseason, bringing in former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell as their new head coach. Remember what he did with Matthew Stafford last season? With Justin Jefferson about to establish himself as the league’s best receiver and Adam Thielen creating out of the slot, the team also added shifty speedster Albert Wilson for Cousins, who accounted for 4,221 passing yards in 2021. K.J. Osborn also showed some promise, catching 50 balls with 655 yards and seven touchdowns last year, while pass-catching tight end Irv Smith Jr. will come back after missing all of last year with a knee injury. Oh, and Dalvin Cook is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the sport.

While there are some question marks on the offensive line, Cousins will now lead an offense that doesn’t even resemble the run-first, run-often mentality that Mike Zimmer required. Both O’Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips are pass-happy play-callers and will heavily utilize Cousins’ abilities as a thrower to open up opportunities in the running game, as opposed to the other way around. As seen last season with Stafford and Los Angeles’ offense, all it takes is a new philosophy and modern-day play calls to open up a ton of potential. BetQL’s model is projecting Cousins to record 4,526 passing yards.

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Dak Prescott (Cowboys): 3,782 Passing Yards

You can make the argument that the Cowboys got worse this offseason, but Dak Prescott’s presence is one of the reasons why they’re still the favorites to win the NFC East Division. However, after losing Amari Cooper, arguably Prescott’s favorite target, and Cedrick Wilson, CeeDee Lamb and tight end Dalton Schultz are probably going to be Prescott’s most productive options. Michael Gallup tore his ACL late in 2021 and might not play a snap this year. James Washington was signed, but he’s been very unreliable in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, this team lost two starting offensive linemen: La’el Collins and Connor Williams. Left tackle Tyron Smith can be dominant when healthy and Zack Martin is one of the best linemen in the league, but as a whole, this offensive line has a lot of question marks unlike past seasons. Since Ezekiel Elliott is seemingly on the decline and Tony Pollard is still most likely going to see backup work regardless in the backfield, there’s a lot to be worried about right now in Dallas' offense. As a result, the simulation is projecting Prescott to accumulate 3,782 passing yards after he racked up 4,449 last year with 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Therefore, he has the most overvalued passing yardage prop on the board.

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Trey Lance (49ers): 28 Passing TD

Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 3,810 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in Kyle Shanahan’s offense last year and nearly took this 49ers team to the Super Bowl. Now, as the page flips to Trey Lance, who will be the Week 1 starter, there are some obvious questions that everyone has. Will this continue to be an offense defined by its running backs and zone running game? Will Lance be used like Lamar Jackson on designed runs? How much will he throw the ball and what type of passes will he be trusted with given his lack of experience, not only in the NFL, but also in college?

All of those questions will be answered very early on, and while there will most likely be a learning curve, there’s a lot to like about the second-year pro’s outlook. Lance’s ability to run the football and gain yardage will likely require opposing defenses to use a linebacker or outside lineman as a spy, which could open up a passing lane or create one-on-one coverage opportunities for his receivers, most notably Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle. Brandon Aiyuk, who fell out of Shanahan’s graces early in 2021, re-emerged as the year went on and has a ton of potential as a big-play threat. If tackles Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey perform like they did last season and the team gets solid blocking from the three interior linemen, Lance should be able to break out and prove the doubters wrong. Our model projects him at 28 touchdown passes, which would certainly silence the haters.

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Justin Herbert (Chargers): 31 Passing TD

After throwing for 5,014 yards with 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season, Herbert is a legitimate MVP candidate heading into 2022. However, as you can see above, a simulation of every game 10,000 times is projecting a regression to 31 passing touchdowns for the young star. That’d match his 2020 output. 

Herbert’s offensive line will be solid and Los Angeles used their No. 17 overall pick on guard Zion Johnson, who will immediately fill a need, but the overall reason for the regression is the fact that Herbert has three proven receivers to throw to: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. Since this team threw the ball 62.5% of the time last year (5th-highest), they’ll also likely want to establish the run more to create more of a guessing game for opposing defenses. Their inability to get production on the ground showed down the stretch last year and ultimately was one of the reasons why they faltered. Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but the model doesn't have him taking the next step quite yet.

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Lamar Jackson (Ravens): 18 Passing TD

In 12 games played last season (due to injury) Jackson recorded 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and looked like a shell of the passer who put up 36 touchdowns and six interceptions in his 2019 MVP year. It’s more likely than not that he bounces back in 2022 and shows off his amazing dual-threat abilities as a passer and a runner, but to what extent? BetQL is projecting him to throw 18 touchdown passes this year given his performance through the air last season and the current status of the receiving room. 

Baltimore surprisingly traded away top wideout Marquise Brown to the Cardinals which means that tight end Mark Andrews should be in store for a huge year. If you're a Ravens fan, you should probably just jump to the next section now. Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, James Proche and Tylan Wallace are Jackson’s other options, which doesn’t paint a pretty picture, nor does the running back position with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both coming off serious knee injuries and veteran Mike Davis potentially entering the year atop the depth chart. That could all make life pretty tough on Jackson as a passer, since opposing defenses will likely prepare to test him through the air as opposed to on the ground, where he's proven to be deadly.

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Tom Brady (Buccaneers): 29 Passing TD

Father Time has been no match for Mr. Brady. Even though he’s about to turn 45 years young, Brady just threw 43 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions for a ridiculous 5,316 yards last year. It remains to be seen how much the loss of Rob Gronkowski (retirement) and All-Pro center Ryan Jensen (knee) will affect Tampa Bay’s offense, though. Since Chris Godwin is also going to miss time with an ACL injury that he suffered late last season, Mike Evans and the newly-signed Julio Jones will likely both be heavily targeted, as could the stable of veteran tight ends that include Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph. Of course Giovani Bernard will also come into play on third downs out of the backfield, but the model is projecting that this will finally be the year that Brady comes back down to Earth, even though 29 touchdowns for a 45 year old is still nuts.

Starting guards Ali Marpet (retirement) and Alex Cappa (free agency) are both gone and while Tristan Wirfs is already a star and offseason acquisition Shaq Mason is also an All-Pro caliber guard, the loss of Jensen at center and the other guard position create some uncertainty. In the end, this should still be a very productive offense, but we project Brady’s numbers to regress closer to the mean. 

Derek Carr (Raiders): 21 Passing TD

Last season, Carr threw for 4,804 yards with 23 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, but the reset button was officially pressed this offseason when new head coach Josh McDaniels and offensive coordinator Mike Lombardi were hired to take over. As seen over the years in New England, this new Raiders offense will likely try to milk the clock when they’re in the lead, complete high-percentage passes and not turn the ball over down the field through the air. That conservative mindset could result in some limitations with Carr's upside.

Due to Harry Ruggs’ arrest and the signing of All-Pro wideout Davante Adams in free agency, this wide receiver room is going to look a lot different in 2022. Hunter Renfrow will return as a productive slot receiver while newly-signed free agents Keelan Cole and DeMarcus Robinson will both provide important depth. Darren Waller will also play a huge role in the passing game at tight end. Overall, it'll be fascinating to see how Adams, Carr's former college teammate, Waller and Renfrow all get involved. However, the Raiders have a terrible offensive line and a pessimistic view there and in the running game this season. While Carr’s weapons are legitimate, opposing defenses should be able to get to him and limit the run, which could impact his season-long production, along with the conservatism that comes along with McDaniels.

Matthew Stafford (Rams): 22 Passing TD

Who else is salivating for the Week 1 matchup between the Rams and Bills? Fresh off of a Super Bowl win and regular season in which he threw for 4,886 yards with 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, Stafford’s morale should be at an all-time high. However, BetQL is projecting a wild decline in touchdown passes this year due to a variety of factors.

First, as mentioned above, offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell is now the head coach of the Vikings. Liam Coen will take over that role after serving in the same one at the University of Kentucky. Even though he has ties with Sean McVay, it’s a new face and a new style of play-calling to get used to. Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods are both gone. The team signed Allen Robinson and will rely on Van Jefferson’s development to fill the voids. Of course Cooper Kupp will be back after a near-record-breaking season, but overall, you can make the clear argument that this passing attack isn’t as scary as it was last year. 

The most glaring concern, though, is the offensive line. Andrew Whitworth announced his retirement. Austin Corbett left in free agency. Plus, the running back room is now bolstered and should vulture some touchdowns away from Stafford's arm. Cam Akers will return and should produce as one of the league’s most explosive backs. Overall, the simulation suggests that Stafford’s touchdown numbers will take a massive hit.

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