Patriots vs. Lions Prediction

Patriots vs. Lions Preview

The Lions may sit at 1-3, but they at least have shown offensively, they're a dangerous team. What they do on the other side of the football is the real issue though, and a big reason why they've only won a single game so far, coming off of a 48-45 loss to the Seahawks.

New England also comes in at 1-3, with a quarterback situation in flux, having to go with third-stringer Bailey Zappe in their 27-24 loss to the Packers.

New England Patriots Preview

Brian Hoyer left that loss on Sunday with a concussion, while Mac Jones, their usual No. 1, has been making progress with the high-ankle sprain. Whether or not he plays is up in the air and something to keep an eye on as we get closer to kickoff.

New England is 4-1 straight up in their last five games against Detroit, while the total has hit the under in six of their last nine games against Detroit. That being said, these are two different teams from years past, with the Patriots clearly no longer in the "contender" conversation.

New England has really struggled stopping the run, which is clearly something Detroit can take advantage of. Baltimore had 126 yards in the second half alone in Week 3, and Green Bay put up 199 yards on 35 carries in Week 4, so you can bet that's clearly part of the game plan for Dan Campbell and the Lions.

Detroit Lions Preview

The Lions just so happen to be sixth in rushing this season, but they'll likely be without running back D'Andre Swift for a second straight game, so that will obviously play a key role Sunday. According to ESPN, the plan is for Swift, who's dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries, to return after the bye, which is Week 7.

Without Swift, the Lions will continue to lean heavily on Jamaal Williams as their featured back. It's worked just fine so far given the fact that he leads the league with six rushing touchdowns, which also happens to be the through four games played in Lions' history.

Detroit has really struggled in close games this year too, with each of their three losses coming by four points or less. A lot of that has to do with the defensive issues, allowing the most points per game in the league, while also leading the league in scoring. They have issues in yards per rush, red zone efficiency, and third-down conversions -- ranking last in all of those areas.

Not surprisingly, the total has hit the over in each of Detroit's last six games, while they're also 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

My Prediction

This game continues to scream over given the circumstances, with Detroit not only averaging the most points per game in the NFL (35.0), but also giving up the most points per game in the league as well (35.3). The over has hit in each of Detroit's last six games dating back to the end of the 2021 season, and they just played in a game where they lost 48-45.

The Patriots offense, with whoever is starting under center, could get a nice break with this very generous defense too.